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Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London

Unread Messageby Christophe » 24/03/20, 14:01

I talked about it here health-pollution-prevention / we-are-at-war-emmanuel-macron-announcement-confinement-t16348-60.html # p386389 but obviously this message does not have enough visibility ...

I therefore create this subject because it is an interesting study on the Imperial Collge in London: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/ et https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_College_London

This study published on March 16, 2020 concerns effects of different types of containment on the progression of the COVID19 epidemic and its results are worrying ... Without confinement this study predicts up to 60 deaths a day in the USA for a total of 000 million deaths!


To read download here: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

Backup:

WHO Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Modeling
MRC Center for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics
Imperial College London

Correspondence: neil.ferguson@imperial.ac.uk


This study is only a mathematical modeling and does not take into account any possible traitement!

It therefore concerns different types of more or less rigorous containment.

Some results are therefore worrying:

- the study already starts with 5 months of confinement (therefore already more than the Chinese confinement of just over 2 months),
- peak reached in the 2nd part of MAY 2020
- possibility of such a serious relapse in December 2020 ... (but there, I did not understand why or how?)

I did not read everything in detail but I extracted the main curves below ... it sucks guys!

Fortunately this is only theory and as the saying goes ...

"If theory worked in practice all the time it would be known!"

Here are the main data ... in your handkerchiefs! : Shock:

Summary in Google Translated:

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound and the public health threat it represents is the most serious observed in a respiratory virus since the H1N1 pandemic of 1918. We present here the results of the epidemiological modeling which informed policy making in the UK and other countries. those last weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, reassessing the potential role of a number of public health measures - so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) - aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and therefore reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, we apply a microsimulation model previously published to two countries: the United Kingdom (in particular Great Britain) and the United States. We conclude that the effectiveness of any intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring the combination of several interventions to have a substantial impact on transmission.

Two basic strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing down, but not necessarily stopping the spread of the epidemic - reducing maximum demand for health care while protecting those most at risk at risk of serious illness against infections, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing the number of cases to low levels and maintaining this situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that optimal mitigation policies (combining the isolation at home of suspect cases, the quarantine at home of people living in the same household as suspect cases and the social distancing of the elderly and the most vulnerable risk of serious illness) could cut health care demand peak by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (including intensive care units) repeatedly overwhelmed, which leaves repression as the preferred political option for countries able to achieve it.

We show that in the context of the United Kingdom and the United States, repression will require at least a combination of social distancing from the entire population, home isolation of cases and quarantining of their members. family. This may need to be complemented by school and university closings, but it must be recognized that these closings can have negative impacts on health systems and absenteeism.

The main challenge of law enforcement is that this type of intensive intervention - or something equivalent effective in reducing transmission - will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) - since we predict that transmission will rebound quickly if interventions are relaxed. show that intermittent social distancing - triggered by trends in disease surveillance - can allow interventions to be temporarily relaxed in relatively short periods of time, but measures will have to be reintroduced if or when the number of cases rebounds. Finally, while experience in China and now in South Korea shows that removal is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether this is possible in the long term and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted so far can be reduced.




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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London

Unread Messageby sicetaitsimple » 24/03/20, 14:39

I did not read the study, just looked at the extracts that you made of it. We will just hope that they were wrong!
Not necessarily on the modeling itself, but on the parameters they entered in the model, some of which must be very difficult to estimate (all the more before 16/03, it should be refined over time).

It was the study that pushed Trump and Bojo to change their rifles, right?
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London

Unread Messageby Christophe » 24/03/20, 14:48

Unfortunately mathematical models are rarely mistaken ... :| :| :|
Statistics yes ... on the other hand ... As we are between the two ... there is still hope?

No idea, I'm not in the secrets of power ... (and it's a shame for them! : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: )
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London

Unread Messageby sicetaitsimple » 24/03/20, 15:01

Christophe wrote:Unfortunately mathematical models are rarely mistaken ... :| :| :|


Bof ... I have seen, in other areas, completely screwed up. But let's say, I didn't contest it.
What I'm telling you is that the mathematical model can be good but the result completely false because we injected parameters, input data, which are not the right ones, for lack of enough feedback .
Last edited by sicetaitsimple the 24 / 03 / 20, 15: 19, 1 edited once.
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London

Unread Messageby Christophe » 24/03/20, 15:03

I imagine that the guys from London College did some checking before publishing this paper ...

The important thing is not really the absolute figures but the impacts of the various confinements ...and their duration: 5 months ... in this simulation ...

I fear, with a little more than 2 months of confinement, that the Chinese will relapse us ... very quickly.
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London

Unread Messageby sicetaitsimple » 24/03/20, 15:25

"It was the study that pushed Trump and Bojo to change their rifles, right?"

Christophe wrote:No idea, I'm not in the secrets of power ...


Me neither, but that seems to be it.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/17/heal ... index.html
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London

Unread Messageby Christophe » 24/03/20, 15:38

Thanks for the info ... Trump hasn't, publicly at least, spoken about it ... but I don't listen to Trump every day! : Cheesy:

Yet to say that 2.2 million deaths are possible in the USA would have been a "formidable" argument ...

See how it will behave in China in the coming days ... and weeks ...

So we know that this paper is not blank!
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London

Unread Messageby sicetaitsimple » 24/03/20, 15:46

Christophe wrote:So we know that this paper is not blank!


Well yes, if Trump and Christophe share the same opinion on it, it's that it's not flan! : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London

Unread Messageby ENERC » 24/03/20, 17:33

The interest of this paper is to show that if we do nothing, it is such carnage that it can completely challenge political systems as was the case during the world wars.
Boris and Donald therefore capitulated.

The rest of the study is based on the false assumption that the world remains global and that the virus will circulate until group or vaccine immunity. This is not going to happen.

In fact, globalization has stopped for passenger transport for several months and probably for at least 2 years. Orly will not reopen on March 31 to the public. Other airports will close for several months, as will land borders.

Certain territories will emerge victorious fairly quickly from the epidemic and will remain closed to avoid re-contamination. This is what is happening in China where the province of Hubei is still cut off from the rest of the country.
In Cogogno, there has been no case of Covid for several days, but it is understandable that they will not reopen trafficking in persons with Milan to get reinfected.
The regions, the countries will close the borders by letting just pass a few passengers after 15 days of quarantine. Exit tourism. For business it is in video conf.


Gradually "healthy" zones will reopen the exchanges of people on a case by case basis. Other countries with a weaker health structure will remain infected for a long time.

Globalization abruptly stopped in March 2020. It is city by city, region by region that we will eradicate the pandemic.

We even have the Minister of the Economy and Finance who becomes an eco-friendly by saying to consume locally. : Shock: We think we're dreaming: it's the complete 180 ° on the Mercosur and Ceta agreements. The sobering up at Covid 19 has the same effect as a cold shower after drinking well: it opens your eyes.

For all those who see the collapse happening, it's just fantastic to see the planes on the ground, the airports closed, and an arch Liberal minister who says to consume local right?

That said, we will have to give up part of our freedom to monitor healed areas in order to test and isolate cases of re-contamination.
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Re: Effects and duration of Covid-19 containment: study by Imperial College London

Unread Messageby Christophe » 24/03/20, 17:37

sicetaitsimple wrote:
Christophe wrote:So we know that this paper is not blank!


Well yes, if Trump and Christophe share the same opinion on it, it's that it's not flan! : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:


Null note to shit ... Sorry ...
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