Health and prevention. Pollution, causes and effects of environmental hazardsCovid: personal risk calculator and duration of confinement compared to the effective R

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Christophe
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Covid: personal risk calculator and duration of confinement compared to the effective R

by Christophe » 05/11/20, 12:08

the site https://covidtracker.fr/ has developed 2 interesting tools to fight and understand the covid pandemic:

1. Covid19 personal risk calculator https://covidtracker.fr/calculateur-risque-covid/ based on the incidence rate in your region

What is the probability that among N people (that I meet), that at least one is a carrier of the Covid?

We have all asked ourselves this question lately: what are the chances that someone who carries the virus will be present at this wedding? How likely is a child in my son's class to have Covid19? With this tool, you can estimate it.

In "incidence rate", enter the incidence rate for the location and the age group that interests you. You will find it in each department (these are the number on the green and red heat maps), or in large cities. In "number of people", enter the number of people on which you want to do this simulation.


You will find the incidence rate for your department and / or your age class here in the Covid HEATMAPs: https://covidtracker.fr/dashboard-departements/

Example for Paris: https://covidtracker.fr/dashboard-departements/#Paris

Screenshot_2020-11-05 Dashboard Departments - CovidTracker.png
Screenshot_2020-11-05 Dashboard Departments - CovidTracker.png (226.08 KiB) Viewed 758 times


Example: Belgium is currently at 1774 of incidence rate at the national level (yes yes). Source: https://covid-19.sciensano.be/sites/def ... ogique.pdf

We have on 25 people crossed 36% of risk that one is carrying the virus ... to 50 people it rises to 59% ... and 235 people to reach 99% (so we understand the restriction of public gatherings. .)

Screenshot_2020-11-05 Covid19 Risk Calculator - CovidTracker.png
Screenshot_2020-11-05 Covid19 Risk Calculator - CovidTracker.png (10.96 KiB) Viewed 791 times


The rate is much higher in some parts of Belgium, so in Liège, the worst corner of Belgium, the incidence rate is 3300 ... for 25 people, the risk is therefore 57% ...

Screenshot_2020-11-05 Covid19 Risk Calculator - CovidTracker (1) .png
Screenshot_2020-11-05 Covid19 Risk Calculator - CovidTracker (1) .png (10.78 KiB) Viewed 791 times


It's up to you to find your incidence rate (based on your location and the age of the people you will meet) and assess your risk ...

2. Confinement duration calculator required according to the configurable effective R https://covidtracker.fr/calculateur-duree-confinement/

This simulator makes it possible to calculate the duration of confinement according to the value of the reproduction rate of the Coronavirus over each week. The higher the reproduction rate, the longer the confinement will have to last. More information on this reproduction rate at the bottom of the page.


Example: this curve of R (fictitious but realistic) would give ... 12 weeks or 3 months of confinement necessary ... to reach the 5000 daily cases (which does not mean the end of the pandemic for all that !!)

Screenshot_2020-11-05 Containment duration calculator - CovidTracker.png
Screenshot_2020-11-05 Containment duration calculator - CovidTracker.png (20.28 KiB) Viewed 791 times


Screenshot_2020-11-05 Containment duration calculator - CovidTracker (1) .png
Screenshot_2020-11-05 Containment duration calculator - CovidTracker (1) .png (37.3 KiB) Viewed 791 times


The calculator does not say if it is strict or light containment ... I imagine it is strict ...

Interesting ... we know better where we are going (or where we are not going !!)

There is also a "wave comparator" but it is less interesting I find: https://covidtracker.fr/comparateur-vagues/
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Re: Covid: personal risk calculator and duration of confinement compared to the effective R

by Christophe » 05/11/20, 14:11

A variant of the Luxembourg Ministry of Health starting from an R of 2,5:

Xnumx_xnumx_xnumx_o.png


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Re: Covid: personal risk calculator and duration of confinement compared to the effective R

by phil59 » 06/11/20, 19:41

Heck, I have an incidence rate of 849 ...

Not to mention that at work I meet a lot of people ....
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Re: Covid: personal risk calculator and duration of confinement compared to the effective R

by Christophe » 06/11/20, 19:42

Ah finally a reaction !! This subject is very important, however ...

So what is your calculation with 849 incidence and the people you meet?
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Re: Covid: personal risk calculator and duration of confinement compared to the effective R

by ENERC » 07/11/20, 07:37

Take a good margin because
More than 60 confirmed cases of Covid-000 have been recorded in the last twenty-four hours, according to SPF, which warns that the data of the last days on new contaminations, however record, are incomplete and underestimated, due to 'a computer "incident" linked to the "enormous" volume of tests being carried out at the moment.

We hit rock bottom if we can't even make additions to count the number of cases : Shock:
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