Warming causes summer rotten 2007

[Christophe]

Warm up: a little respite before diving back
NOUVELOBS.COM | 10.08.2007 | 12: 59

A more precise modeling of the climate of the coming years anticipates a slowing of the warming up to 2009 then a new rise of the temperatures.

The 21th century will be hot, it is a certainty. But given the temperatures and this summer it's really not easy. British researchers explain this phenomenon by a variability of the climate caused by natural phenomena.

A widespread criticism of global climate models, particularly for their ability to predict the immediate future, is that they include only factors influenced by changes outside the climate system such as solar radiation, atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases. greenhouse effect.
They would thus neglect the internal variability of the climate resulting from phenomena like El Niño, the fluctuations in the oceanic circulation and variations of heat of the ocean. These phenomena could induce short-term, regional changes in particular, very different from the average warming expected during this century because of human activities

To capture these more subtle effects, meteorologists have improved the predictive capability of a climate model by incorporating information about the actual state of the oceans and the atmosphere instead of approximations as was the case previously. They have thus implemented a modeling that predicts both the internal variability and the changes made by the outside. A series of retrospective forecasts over the last decades has shown that this model gives more accurate values ​​of global surface temperature on this time scale.

This model predicts that warming will slow down in the next few years and then accelerate, and that at least half of the years after 2009 will be warmer than 1998, the hottest year ever recorded. In other words, the planet will experience a little respite before starting to sweat for good. According to the authors, the next decade represents a horizon before which planning measures for infrastructure upgrading, energy policy and economic development should be adopted. After the tensions will be bigger and act in the emergency rarely gives good results.


JI
Science and Future.com
10/08/07

Source: Science and Future on Link

ps: I find the details (2009) very precise on the scale of the warming ... anyway it is not a surprise that the warming will induce regional cooling ...

[sam44]

Besides, it started to snow in Germany and Poland! up to 20 cm no place ... so if that's not a proof that there is a 'blemish somewhere !!!

[Christophe]

"But no, it doesn't matter ... it's always been that way ..." blablablablabala

Hold a text that will make you meditate (well not that you I hope): https://www.econologie.com/pourquoi-ca-b ... s-389.html

Based on the work of Cohen, it is possible to determine the existence of certain psychological processes transposed to climate change. First of all, we must expect general rejection when the problem is of such a scope and nature that society has no cultural mechanism to accept it. Primo Levi, trying to explain the fact that many Jews in Europe may have refused to admit the threat of extermination, quoted an old German adage: "Things whose existence seems morally impossible cannot exist . "

In the case of climate change, we are intellectually capable of accepting the obvious, while experiencing the greatest difficulty in accepting our responsibility for such a crime.

[freddau]

Bizarre,

the conclusions that one has a repit until 2009 are only a posteriori of a rotten 2007 ..

I can give you the example of the modeling of the wear of blast furnace walls subjected to high temperatures, extreme chemical conditions.
And these models are used for blast furnace maintenance. And ben the opinion of those responsible for repair, the models never reflect the wear of the walls.
And here I am talking about a rather small system compared to the earth

So moving forward to say 2008 and 2009 will be cool, it's given arguments to the destroyer, I think.

[A2E]

and do not forget the famous solar cycles (11 years I think)

[bham]

Well, I deviate a little from the subject, we had made a post about it elsewhere but I find it more. In Vendée, at present, swallows nest and a bird's egg was even seen in a nest, whereas 2 days before there was none.
So I predict an autumn and a warm winter.
Unless the wildlife is even more confused than we are ......

[Christophe]

So moving forward to say 2008 and 2009 will be cool, it's given arguments to the destroyer, I think.

Yes it's mostly anything ... to play dice!

and do not forget the famous solar cycles (11 years I think)

I can be wrong but this solar periodicity has already existed and it seems to me that disasters of all kinds still increase intensity ... Floods of such magnitude in England and summer is unheard of ...