Non-journalistic approach to the war in Ukraine

[Christophe]

I leave you to meditate on this sentence of Marx "It is men who make history, but not the one they believe..

Didn't he also say by chance? "It's All Stories"

(the H is important)

[Obamot]

And if he revives the subject, is it not because he is not satisfied with the answers that have been served to him?

[Ahmed]

Leaving aside childishness (neoteny, in "scholarly" terms; special attention for Sicetaitsimple), back to the serious stuff.

Contrary to what one can read almost everywhere, the war did not completely reshuffle the cards, in particular through Western sanctions: it is an inaccurate interpretation based on correct observation. Wars of a certain intensity can be seen as catalysts and accelerators of transformations already underway before the outbreak of hostilities. The world was roughly bipolarized, but an inversion is underway: it will always be roughly a bipolarization with on one side the former developed countries in recession, on the other the expanding emerging countries, to which are added of course the countries collapsing, current or future.
The biggest changes obviously concern economic flows, but also financial flows (linked to material flows). For the moment, the China/USA interdependence is strongly structuring the whole, but the dollar is starting to give way to other currencies, especially since the partial reversal of Russian energy flows to China (at very advantageous conditions for the latter ). Once the obligation to obtain dollars is less significant, a reorientation of Chinese products should take place in the medium term*, which would completely change current geostrategic relations. This would generate increased tensions, because the last US forces in decline could throw themselves into a war option (this eventuality is probably the reason for the rise of the Chinese army).
A classic view of the economy would therefore see the development of this scheme of a substitution of the beneficiaries of prosperity quite well. However, this is probably not the conclusion that should be drawn: the decline of the formerly dominant countries will certainly lead to a shift in activity, but on fragile bases because they are gradually shrinking. Consider that the recipes deployed in emerging countries are those that have ultimately failed or are in the process of failing in the West. For the moment, the economic confrontation is concentrated on a few strategic technological poles, the only ones which offer acceptable profitability, but which will ultimately concern only a few players and which are far from sufficient to support the entire system.

* It is hard to see the Chinese continuing to supply the Americans for their beautiful eyes alone!