Ban on new thermal cars in 2035: Germany changes its mind!

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Janic
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Re: Ban on new thermal cars in 2035: Germany changes its mind!




by Janic » 09/03/23, 08:16

A priori, every 10 billion inhabitants of planet Earth could take advantage of it, in different proportions, however, without leading to systematic desertification.
it is indeed the problem of hypotheses and suppositions. The presence of 10 billion inhabitants does not only concern their energy consumption, linked to travel, but also concerns all the other sectors said to be necessary or useful for this mass of population, with the same aspirations as our current consumer society.
Sharing(sic) a cake is reasonable when there are only a few consumers, but becomes derisory, ridiculous, when the number of "beneficiaries" increases exponentially, reducing each share to a bare minimum. While currently, only a small part is gorging itself, literally, to the detriment of the not-haves.
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Re: Ban on new thermal cars in 2035: Germany changes its mind!




by NCSH » 09/03/23, 10:24

Janic wrote:
A priori, every 10 billion inhabitants of planet Earth could take advantage of it, in different proportions, however, without leading to systematic desertification.
it is indeed the problem of hypotheses and suppositions. The presence of 10 billion inhabitants does not only concern their energy consumption, linked to travel, but also concerns all the other sectors said to be necessary or useful for this mass of population, with the same aspirations as our current consumer society.
Sharing(sic) a cake is reasonable when there are only a few consumers, but becomes derisory, ridiculous, when the number of "beneficiaries" increases exponentially, reducing each share to a bare minimum. While currently, only a small part is gorging itself, literally, to the detriment of the not-haves.

With a GNP per capita target of €50/year in 000 (against approximately 2050 currently), European countries such as France or Germany will always consume much more energy than emerging countries such as South Africa. , Brazil, India for which the objective would be around 40 € or $ per year in 000.

Thus, these emerging countries could not generalize the individual vehicle as we have been able to do in developed countries thanks to petroleum products from fossil sources. At most, share means of public transport, continue to use propane bottles for cooking meals outside the hours of maximum heat in the middle of the day...
Similarly, the overbidding of multiple everyday consumer goods that we have known for sixty years will remain inaccessible to them.

These are not exponential curves as presented in the 1972 report for the Club of Rome, The limits to growth, but of sigmoids, ie which cap at a high level.
Less dependence, if not for food, on arable land, limiting pollution, generalizing recycling (and now the circular economy) are some of the conditions for avoiding the risk of desertification and therefore of collapse.
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Re: Ban on new thermal cars in 2035: Germany changes its mind!




by Janic » 09/03/23, 11:29

Less dependence, if not for food, on arable land, limiting pollution, generalizing recycling (and now the circular economy) are some of the conditions for avoiding the risk of desertification and therefore of collapse.
this is an idealization of the future that no one knows and it is just a glimpse of it through the keyhole. Historically, it takes several generations in a row to achieve profound changes in societies. So between 25 and 75 years and we are only at the generation (not taking into account the whistleblowers who anticipated it almost a century ago (4 generations!) this does not prevent that everyone, individually, personally, in particular, etc... make their share of change.
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Re: Ban on new thermal cars in 2035: Germany changes its mind!




by Flytox » 09/03/23, 23:29

First of all, it would be necessary to evaluate a very important parameter in this debate...a significant scarcity of copper, for example, in the near future. Many projections could well become totally obsolete:

https://www.aveq.ca/actualiteacutes/de-combien-de-cuivre-les-vehicules-electriques-ont-ils-besoin

copper.odt
(585.03 KB) Downloaded times 68
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Re: Ban on new thermal cars in 2035: Germany changes its mind!




by Janic » 10/03/23, 08:05

10/03/23, 00:29
flitox
First of all, it would be necessary to evaluate a very important parameter in this debate...a significant scarcity of copper, for example, in the near future. Many projections could well become totally obsolete:
you are absolutely right, yet it is the ba BA to wonder if this kind of product will be in sufficient quantity to cover all the copper needs of the future and obviously: no! So what kind of technocrats are behind this industrial nonsense.
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Re: Ban on new thermal cars in 2035: Germany changes its mind!




by NCSH » 10/03/23, 09:08

The copper shortage that this short document lists may not be a problem in itself for vehicles, but much more general because of the systematic electrification of uses hitherto ensured by combustion thermal solutions.

However, it appears possible to substitute with Aluminum, with a slight reduction in certain characteristics, in particular due to the greater electrical resistance, which implies an increase in size in the case of electric motors.

In fact, all the materials come into consideration: Al, Cu but also those necessary for the significant multiplication of batteries.
We have already reported this past year 2022 the increase in the ton of Lithium, to $80/ton!

This is not how the cost of purchasing individual cars will return to the level of 10 years ago; more or less €10 for a small car with a segment A combustion engine; currently more than double for an electric Twingo!

For family-size cars, it's a 30 to 60% increase, even with internal combustion engines!

Wanting to tumble from top to bottom the automotive industry will cost users dearly, but isn't this voluntary on the part of environmentalists who have devoted 60 years of fierce hatred to this symbol of the "consumer society"?
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Re: Ban on new thermal cars in 2035: Germany changes its mind!




by phil59 » 10/03/23, 10:57

NCSH wrote:
However, it appears possible to substitute with Aluminum, with a slight reduction in certain characteristics, in particular due to the greater electrical resistance, which implies an increase in size in the case of electric motors.



Many electrical cables are already in aluminum, with a larger section.
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hmmmmm, hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmm, huh, hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

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Re: Ban on new thermal cars in 2035: Germany changes its mind!




by Janic » 10/03/23, 11:42

10/03/23, 10:08
The copper shortage that this short document lists may not be a problem in itself for vehicles, but much more general because of the systematic electrification of uses hitherto ensured by combustion thermal solutions.
it is not just vehicles but all equipment using electric motors such as fridges, washing machines, etc...
However, it appears possible to substitute with Aluminum, with a slight reduction in certain characteristics, in particular due to the greater electrical resistance, which implies an increase in size in the case of electric motors.
Indeed, copper can be replaced by aluminum (which is only to move the problem) by increasing the size of electrical appliances whatever they are!
In fact, all the materials come into consideration: Al, Cu but also those necessary for the significant multiplication of batteries.
We have already reported this past year 2022 the increase in the ton of Lithium, to $80/ton!
and the explosion in the price of copper and the extractive overexploitation, a major source of CO2, but obviously it's the fault of the foreign countries that do it, we only count what we pollute directly (that is to say almost nothing! )
to make matters worse, the automobile industry will cost users dearly, but isn't this voluntary on the part of environmentalists who have devoted 60 years of fierce hatred to this symbol of the "consumer society"?
we must stop this discourse on ecologists even though there are lots of ways of perceiving ecology according to personal points of view.
Indeed what fierce hatred are you talking about?, It sounds like the speech of the provaxx against what they call the antivaxx, which is ridiculous!
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Re: Ban on new thermal cars in 2035: Germany changes its mind!




by NCSH » 10/03/23, 12:21

Janic wrote:10/03/23, 10:08]In fact, all the materials come into consideration: Al, Cu but also those necessary for the significant multiplication of batteries.
We have already reported this past year 2022 the increase in the ton of Lithium, to $80/ton!
and the explosion in the price of copper and the extractive overexploitation, a major source of CO2, but obviously it's the fault of the foreign countries that do it, we only count what we pollute directly (that is to say almost nothing! )
to make matters worse, the automobile industry will cost users dearly, but isn't this voluntary on the part of environmentalists who have devoted 60 years of fierce hatred to this symbol of the "consumer society"?
we must stop this discourse on ecologists even though there are lots of ways of perceiving ecology according to personal points of view.
Indeed what fierce hatred are you talking about?, It sounds like the speech of the provaxx against what they call the antivaxx, which is ridiculous![/quote]



Agreed, it is all those metal ores and rare earths whose high demand in the future will induce new mines and sustained if not high cost levels.

Indeed, there are 1001 ways to define oneself as an ecologist, but it remains a "when to oneself".

However, those who we hear (and read) a lot in the public space, because of their political positions, especially in the European Parliament, which define many things with regard to the future of the automobile and the systematic electrification of uses, which are those concerned by my remarks.

I could add the maximalist nucleolatrists to it...
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Re: Ban on new thermal cars in 2035: Germany changes its mind!




by phil59 » 10/03/23, 15:52

NCSH wrote:

Agreed, it is all those metal ores and rare earths whose high demand in the future will induce new mines and sustained if not high cost levels.



Rare earth is what is in the "catastrophic" pots : Lol:

The aluminum in the cylinder heads? : Lol: : Lol: : Lol: : Lol: : Lol:
Or in vaccines? : Arrow:
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hmmmmm, hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmm, huh, hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

: Oops: : Cry: :( : Shock:

 


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