robob wrote:Taking the curves of cases, hospi or deaths, will give roughly the same result with a time lag. The big biases are the number of tests for the cases and the modification of the sensitivity of the PCR tests too: for example most of the biological labs of the hospitals of Ile de France have modified the threshold of their cycle (the famous CT ) only early 2021! (Source a neighbor who is a biologist at CH de Gonesse.)
osf of the CT threshold. Whatever threshold you take, it will remain a marker for the circulation of the virus. The controversy is just over whether people with low viral loads are really contagious and should stay home or not, but it is a societal issue, not an epidemiological issue. When we decided to confine everyone the question was settled ...
We know anyway that only a small fraction of those infected risk dying. Increasing or decreasing the threshold varies the number of absolute cases but it is homothetic, the shape of the curves will be the same.
For Deaths, the enormous bias is of course the inclusion of vax in all global stats 14 days after the second dose. This induces a colossal temporality bias in all the efficacy studies.
not understood what you call a "temporality bias"
Do you want to know if the vaccine could have an effect, not on mortality, but directly by increasing covid cases? compares when the figures are available, the evolution of the number of positive cases in vaccinated 1 dose per 100 vaccinated 1 dose in the population, to novax and fullvax (also proportional). Do it in countries which massively vaccinate over short periods and provide figures (UK and Israel for example). If the vaccination has an impact then the positive cases of the 1 dose will temporarily increase significantly compared to the novax whereas it should decrease as the vaccine becomes effective. The comparison by age group vax and novax over these transition periods is also instructive.
there may be an "abandonment of barrier gestures" effect too soon after the first vaccination, but given that the probability of being contaminated during the first 15 days remains very low, that does not prevent having a largely positive final assessment at the end.
To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)
Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
