The transport sector is the biggest consumer of energy, so it is a very important source of greenhouse gases. With the saturation of the French market, the international road lobby is now turning to developing countries such as China and India.
Saturation of the French market
According to the Union Routière de France [1], the French car fleet is showing signs of saturation, since it seems to be stabilizing around 36 million vehicles, 83% of which are private cars.
There are now in France 595 vehicles per 1000 inhabitants.
Contrary to the objectives of the Kyoto Protocol, road transport has failed to stabilize its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Thus the increase in road traffic, technological innovations and the ramp-up of many models caused very strong growth in GHG emissions in France, between 1990 and 2004:
- 19% increase in CO2 emissions, which reach 132 million tonnes / year
- 173% increase in N2O (nitrous oxide) emissions, due to the widespread use of catalytic converters. These emissions reach 4,3 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (CO2) per year.
- considerable increase in HFC (hydrofluorocarbon) emissions due to vehicle air conditioning. These emissions went from 0 to 1990 to 1,86 million tonnes of CO2e in 2004.
In total in France, road traffic contributes to the emission of 2,3 tonnes of CO2e per inhabitant.
Motorization of Asians
With western markets saturated, the international road lobby is now turning to developing countries like China and India.
In fact the 2,5 billion inhabitants of these 2 countries constitute a new El Dorado for car manufacturers and highway builders.
According to the Asian Development Bank [2], the Chinese car fleet is expected to multiply by 15 within 30 years, reaching 190 million vehicles.
The Indian park should be multiplied by 13.
At the same time, CO2 emissions from road transport should be multiplied by 3,4 in China and 5,8 in India.
The motorization of the Planet to French standard, would lead to the circulation of 3 billion vehicles emitting 13,8 billion tonnes of CO2e annually.
Is this a viable prospect? It is permissible to doubt it.
Notes
[1] Transport statistics in France. Facts and figures 2006. Union Routière de France
[2] Report Warns on Climate Change Implications of Asia's Motorization. 14/12/06. ADB
Daniel Delestre for Climate Action Network - France
http://www.rac-f.org/
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