Opinions about Covid vaccines, immunity, side effects and immunology

[pedrodelavega]

It's boring in the long run ... and it's the German government, not 2 newspapers ... it's not exactly the same (except that the communication is not official ...)

German newspapers claim that the British firm's vaccine is only 8% effective in people over 65, AstraZeneca denies.

(...)

Berlin questions the performance of the product for this age group. "The articles according to which the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca / Oxford vaccine is only 8% in adults over 65 are completely false," said a spokesperson for AstraZeneca in a statement sent to Agence France -Hurry.

The Bild Zeitung and the Handelsblatt business daily claimed on Monday evening that theGerman government doubted the effectiveness of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine, developed with the University of Oxford, on people over 65. According to Handelsblatt, who refers to government sources, Berlin expects an efficiency of 8% for this age group.

(...)

It's a bit "big" for info. Did you crosscheck the sources?

[Christophe]

What don't they mean by "disease reduction" ???

You too are making this slip not VS by?

I think it's lab communication ...

[Christophe]

It's a bit "big" for info. Did you crosscheck the sources?

Journalists are their job, isn't it?

But you, there you do for the last provax tweet that you threw?

[gegyx]

Another "deleterious hypothesis" about vaccines.
Colombo investigation

https://blogs.mediapart.fr/enzo-lolo/bl ... s-variants

[GuyGadeboisTheBack]

According to Handelsblatt, who refers to government sources, Berlin expects an efficiency of 8% for this age group.

But 100% in immune people, 98% in children and 95% in young people up to 25 years?
Only one possible answer, I quote an expert:

The "French vaccine fiasco" yes

Therefore I understand better where Végaz is located:
If it is commercialized, it is a success, if it is not it is a fiasco. The rest, like efficiency, doesn't matter ....

[GuyGadeboisTheBack]

Disclaimer:

Two media have confused the proportion of people "between 56 and 69 years", having participated in the evaluation studies of the vaccine amounting to "8%", and its rate of effectiveness for those over 65 ...

A reading error and a colossal crash ... Berlin on Tuesday refuted the information of two German media, which cited anonymous sources in the government, according to which the vaccine against the Covid-19 of the laboratory AstraZeneca was not effective enough for people over 65.

"It seems that at first glance, the articles have confused two things," the health ministry said.
According to the authorities, the media confused the proportion of people "between 56 and 69 years old", having participated in the evaluation studies of the vaccine amounting to "8%", and its rate of effectiveness for those over 65 years old. .

The daily Bild and the business newspaper Handelsblatt said Monday evening that the German government doubted the effectiveness of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine, developed with the University of Oxford, on people over the age of 65 . According to Handelsblatt, who claimed government sources, Berlin was counting on an efficacy of only 8% for this age group, threatening the approval of the vaccine.

https://www.sudouest.fr/2021/01/26/covi ... 7-4696.php


https://www.numerama.com/sciences/68468 ... -faux.html

[pedrodelavega]

It's a bit "big" for info. Did you crosscheck the sources?

Journalists are their job, isn't it?

see Guy's denial

According to Handelsblatt, who refers to government sources, Berlin expects an efficiency of 8% for this age group.

I did not write this. This quote is not mine.

[pedrodelavega]

Why unfortunately encouraging results on the ground are slow to arrive?
explanations:

1 / The theoretical efficacy (95%) of this vaccine is obtained after 2 doses, spaced 21 days apart.
2 / Based on clinical trials, the theoretical efficacy of Pfizer vaccine after a single dose is estimated to be around 52%.
3 / Immunity after vaccination is usually not considered effective until about 15 days later. In the case of the Pfizer vaccine, the expected efficacy seems to be obtained one week after the second dose. One thing is certain, we are not immune the day of the vaccination, or the next day.
4 / Vaccination campaigns generally gain momentum over the days (even weeks), depending on the running-in of the teams, the setting up of infrastructures (complex here, due to an unprecedented cold chain), and especially the arrival of doses. There are fewer people vaccinated the first days / weeks.
5 / An infected person will (possibly) take around 4 to 5 days to develop symptoms, and if they were to develop a serious form and die, the median time between these first symptoms and death is estimated at just under 18 days . The dead were therefore infected, in general, about 23 days earlier.

We are January 26th.
The people who died today were therefore infected around January 3, 23 days ago.
To have a 95% chance of being immunized by the vaccine on January 3, the second dose should have been received at least a week earlier, on December 27. No one had received two doses by that date, whether we were talking about the UK or Israel.
To have about a 52% chance of being immunized by the vaccine on January 3, it would have been necessary to receive the first dose at least a week earlier, on December 27.

What was the vaccination coverage in these two countries at the time?
United Kingdom
First vaccinated: December 8
2nd dose scheduled for December 29
1 dose coverage on December 27: 1.4%
2-dose coverage on December 27: 0%
Israel
First vaccinated: December 19
2nd dose scheduled for January 9
1 dose coverage on December 27: 4.3%
2-dose coverage on December 27: 0%
-------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------
What was statistically the proportion of the population immunized in these two countries on January 3? (Considering that no one had then received two doses, and a theoretical efficacy of around 52% one week after the first dose)
United Kingdom
Immune population on January 03 ∼ 0.8%
Israel
Immune population on January 03 ∼ 2.2%
-------------------------------------------------- -----------------
Conclusions:
We do not know when people vaccinated on 27/12 received their first injection. We do not know the immunization status of the deceased.
We can therefore only do a "ladle" calculation, taking a reasonable margin (7 days).
This is not important, since the order of magnitude is sufficiently telling: the proportion of people potentially immune at the beginning of January was negligible.
The point is, there is absolutely nothing we can deduce from the epidemic curves in these two countries at this point.
It is also likely that we will not be able to deduce anything from this for weeks (for Israel, which vaccines at a very impressive rate) or rather months (for the rest of the planet), that is to say before most of of the population has not been properly vaccinated (2 doses) for at least 7 days.
An interesting data, however, would be the vaccination status (and date of vaccination) of new serious cases admitted to intensive care, for example, or deaths.
Fortunately, Israel has made an agreement with Pfizer to provide them with all their epidemiological data, in exchange for doses in sufficient quantities, quickly.

Source of analysis with related source data

[GuyGadeboisTheBack]

The reliable sources, where are they (The Lancet ... LOOOOOOOL ....)? Hervérifie, it's ... doubtful.

[pedrodelavega]

The reliable sources, where are they (The Lancet ... LOOOOOOOL ....)? Hervérifie, it's ... doubtful.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3yTPadPq9obuSS6J81mMgDZzIVZ6f57d9IDvxdzHoM398YmTHJSppSUL4
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... sxXHQc2JIs
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details ... UsY8HwQHHE
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccin ... b9n14bVQpg