Coronavirus, who or what and why? What origin?

[VetusLignum]

I think it would be useful to add a link to the words "VERIFIED", so that we can also watch.

The link you cited today does not prove much, because we know that the epidemic started in November (or probably before) in Wuhan. The document on which the study is based says: "if some of these samples indicate antibody responses from undetected SARS-CoV-2 infections, it cannot be determined whether these infections were community- or travel-associated."
https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar ... 85/6012472

For my part, I believe that, if the virus had first come out of an American laboratory, then, given its strong contagiousness, the epidemic would have started near this laboratory. Or near the hospital where there were the first patients. Since the epidemic started in Wuhan, then the most likely is that it was in this city that the virus appeared.

Then, the WIV had the (supposedly) bald virus the closest genetically to SARS-COV-2; no other laboratory is known to have this virus.

Finally, if China seeks to clear customs of being the source of the virus, why is it no longer accusing the US?
There would be a reason for that, it is that they try not to offend with the new administration, which is much more favorable to them than the previous one.
Still, if they are innocent and want to exonerate themselves, then it is up to them to accuse those they think are the culprits; which they don't do, but could do if we keep pressuring them.

Having said that, if the Chinese are to blame, then they probably have accomplices in the US. I am thinking in particular of Peter Daszak, who succeeded, without any solid scientific basis, in making the thesis of a virus escaped from the laboratory, a "conspiracy" thesis, from February 2019.
https://usrtk.org/biohazards-blog/ecohe ... ars-cov-2/
https://usrtk.org/biohazards-blog/new-e ... 2-origins/
https://usrtk.org/biohazards-blog/scien ... s-origins/

Peter Daszak is the president of the EcoHealth Alliance, which funded the WIV coronavirus research, with money from the NIH (Antonio Fauci).
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... -new-grant

If you are looking for culprits in the US, it is rather to them (and all those who signed the Lancet letter) that you should turn. Almost all of the articles supporting the idea that SARS-COV-2 has a natural origin come from this network.

[VetusLignum]

Since June 2019, all this has been happening in the same region, after the first “events” ... 2 cases at the end of August 500 of patients with COVID symptoms, it is still not trivial! Would they be officially dead from the flu like the October 2019 cases? What would other post-mortem analyzes give, such as the cases of October 2019, who died of the flu, but whose body exhumation analyzes revealed traces of COVID? Why should it be “classified as a defense secret” and why has the English-speaking press outside the United States hardly mentioned it?

the original source of this story of 2500 patients with covid19-like syndrome in Virginia appears to be this article: https://www.unz.com/article/the-hunt-for-patient-zero/

But I can't find a primary source.

And then, as I said before, if there had been, between August and October 2019, 2500 patients with covid19 in Virginia, why was there not there, at that time- there, a very important epidemic?
Why would the virus have disappeared from circulation, before reappearing there months later, after the explosion of the epidemic in Wuhan?

[Obamot]

I quibble but “we are sick with SARS-cov-2”And the disease is called covid.

You have to put it all in the table, eh, just a suggestion hypotheses VS counter-hypotheses ... And then we will see ...!

I have no “favorite hypothesis” and without want to be categorical:

At the same time (August-September 2019) there was indeed an epidemic peak of influenza “B” unexplained because “out of season” in the USA. And which mainly affected 0-24 year olds.

E342D388-34E9-4E39-A1B5-362313602925.jpeg (447.2 Kio) Consulté 1506 fois

Source: CDC https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/flu_by_age_virus.html

As it affected young people, and that according to any hypothesis the R = 0 should be lower than during a later more virulent mutation. It stopped on its own ... Except maybe for a soldier ... who caught it ... and who would have participated in the “Wuhan Military Games” during which, climate change and ecosystem help, the virus would then have taken advantage of these favorable conditions to proliferate? Just to say that we must observe and see before deducing that “it would not be likely, because it is in China that the spread has spread everywhere else".

It must be understood that the influenza “B” virus also has this ability to break the species barrier. And other common features of SARS-cov-2. Better than that, it can cross the barrier in both directions and return to humans, which in the hypothesis of a virus of “natural” origin is the only explanation for characters specific to HIV to have been infected. animals to return to humans in the form of a pandemic then ... Excerpts from Wikipedia:

Influenza B viruses are viruses with Single-stranded RNA of negative polarity with segmented genome [ see this very interesting link https://www.news-medical.net/health/Wha ... A-(2bssRNA) -Virus- (English) .asp] Influenza B viruses [are like SARS-cov-2] coated with surface glycoproteins [the “H” hemagglutinin protein and the “N” neuraminidase protein, which SARS-cov-2 also has. The influenza B virus is "the cause of seasonal epidemics associated with morbidity [just like SARS-cov-2, to name just this one]

The influenza B virus is a strictly human virus, however a non-human reservoir was detected in 2000 and isolated in the Netherlands: the seal.

The researchers after analyzes of sequences and serology, indicate that the strain “is closely related to the strains which circulated in humans 4 to 5 years earlier. Retrospective analyzes of sera taken from 971 seals showed a prevalence of antibodies to influenza B virus in 2% of animals after 1995, and none before 1995 ”. This discovery therefore calls into question the idea that the influenza B virus is strictly of human origin., but there might be other sources in the wild unknown.
These same researchers nevertheless believe that the introduction of this virus in seals would be of human origin, dating back to 1995. The influenza B virus can reassort itself with the influenza A virus circulating in humans.

I do not pretend to give the explanation for the presence of strands of HIV, but on the contrary to show that the probabilities of it being present in SARS-cov-2 are very curious and would be almost impossible to achieve in practice. and in a lapse of time as short as that which the phylogenetic tree would reveal, which gives water to the mill to those who think that it comes from a P4 lab, and agrees with the opinion of the geneticist Alexandra Henrion -Caude.
The argument about the genome of the virus “typically Chinese origin”, Seems to me to be put in suspense - certainly the bat is not the seal, but it shows a certain ubiquity and can explain the potentiality of the presence of strands of human HIV in an animal virus via“ influenza B ”( reminder: with a few exceptions, absolutely all coronaviruses are animal viruses, so human HIV has absolutely nothing to do with it) - to be put on hold again because that's what anyone from malicious would have done to make believe that the virus would come from China (and it worked brilliantly from the start without anyone asking too many questions ...) and finally because the P4 labs exchanging their viruses, it does not t is absolutely not illusory that a possibly Chinese virus is released by accident in the USA. All the more so as the Wuhan P4 lab was co-funded by the Americans! And I recall here the warning of Professor Montagnier who drove the point home about the possible provenance of SARS-cov-2 from an American laboratory ...!

For these different aspects, a “non-Chinese” origin is still not to be excluded, quite the contrary.

[VetusLignum]

At the same time (August-September 2019) there was indeed an epidemic peak of influenza “B” unexplained because “out of season” in the USA. And which mainly affected 0-24 year olds.
Source: CDC https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/flu_by_age_virus.html

If we look at the number of cases on the y-axis, we can see that it remains extremely low; and if we take the same graph over the following season, we can see that what you call "epidemic peak" was in fact only the very beginning of an epidemic of influenza B of the B / Victoria lineage, which experienced its peak in January and stopped in March-April.

An article on this childhood flu epidemic: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6902e1.htm

Frankly, I don't see how this could have been mistaken for covid19.

[Obamot]

It's not, I'm sorry I let this mistake go, my apologies (it was late). This was also the question I had asked myself ... why the peak had disappeared so abruptly in the graph for the following year. I know why, I was not careful, I relied on the graphic scale and not the data scale. It must be said that the CDC has a very curious way of displaying them which is misleading and which we discover thanks to your relevant remark: at the top of the tables the data for influenza “A (H3)” go up to 1 '650 cases, while on the same page the data that I presented are in tens (I could honestly assume that for all the territory of the USA such a peak was rather in tens of thousands ...) and conversely season 2019- 2020, the data in tens are then represented in thousands for influenza “B” and the opposite for influenza “A (H3)” ...

Note 3 things:

1) It is not the starting number that counts, it always starts with ONLY ONE CASE, it would only take one of these cases that turned out (hypothetically) as I described it and that went to infect Wuhan during military games.

2) On the contrary, it remains to be found for the 2 cases (if indeed they did exist, but I am not giving up the piece) and why they do not appear in the stats (according to your judicious observation) .

3) The most curious of all is: how a country as large as the United States has so few cases of seasonal flu (suspiciously less than 1200 cases per month data spread over the year) and in this case, why hiring staff in early November 2019 to “organize quarantines” was relevant, when no one had heard of SARS-cov-2 yet

[Obamot]

After your verification VS mine made behind yours
Nothing is clear, the CDC tables per week, ACCORDING TO YOUR INTERPRETATION, do not reflect the general situation over the year:

2018 – 2019 Feet
CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Tell me if I'm wrong, but it would look like this:

My laddering calculation approx. 1 cases per month x 200 = 12 cases is perhaps to be compared with the 14 million visits.
If we correct to the figure of: 1'375 cases per month x 12 = 16,5 million cases, that gives us tables with 1 “specimen” per 100.

All things considered, in the portion of the table that I have surrounded, there would therefore be, with a ladle:
“275 specimens” (over eight weeks) x 1'000 = 275'000 cases.

If so, I get back on my feet, since suddenly to find 2 cases (possibly and hypothetically symptomatic covid) lost in 500 cases of influenza, it's not a challenge.

[VetusLignum]

The IHU proposes a theory for a natural origin of SARS-COV-2, where the intermediate host between the bat and the man is the mink

[ABC2019]

may not be built by hand, but it may be the result of natural selection in the lab, I don't see how to distinguish from natural selection in the wild.

[VetusLignum]

In an interview dated 09/12/2019, Peter Daszak tells us about the work in progress at the WIV, they tell us that more than 100 new SARS-COVs have been discovered, that some of them are capable of infecting the human, or cause SARS in "humanized mouse models", and they have no treatment or vaccine.

He adds that there was GOF work underway to develop a vaccine against these viruses.

[izentrop]

The IHU proposes a theory for a natural origin of SARS-COV-2, where the intermediate host between the bat and the man is the mink

BB was ahead of its time