François Roddier
This is the title of the first section of chapter 15 of my book on the thermodynamics of evolution. So I've already given my answer to this question: we can predict avalanche weather, but not a particular avalanche. Similarly, we can predict a crisis-prone epoch, but not a particular crisis.
Our understanding of the Earth's atmosphere dynamics, including cyclones and anticyclones, allows us to make realistic weather forecasts, at least in the short term. Similarly, our new understanding of economic cycles, through research such as that of Gerhard Mensch (109 note), or that of historical cycles, thanks to the work of Turchin and Nefedov (90 note), should allow us to predict the evolution human societies on the scale of a few decades. All science progresses by making predictions that are then verified or not by experience. In the case of a human society, the verification of predictions will take time, but that should not prevent us from doing them today, leaving it up to the younger generations to verify them.
If the predictions that follow are correct, this vision will be strengthened and can serve as a basis for a better understanding of human societies. This is of course a statistical forecast. I will talk about probability of crisis as we talk about the probability of rain or good weather. In any case, it is useful to make predictions. These concern the Western countries and more particularly France, knowing that its evolution is intimately linked to that of its neighboring countries.
First of all, it's important to understand that a society does not have a period of its own.. It describes Carnot cycles similar to those of a thermal machine. The more energy it dissipates, the faster the machine turns. Those of my readers who have a lap counter on their car know that the more they press the accelerator the faster their engine runs. The same is true of human societies. The more energy they dissipate, the shorter the cycles they describe. Turchin and Nefedov give examples of historical cycles lasting several centuries. For the historian Giovanni Arrighi (3), our societies today describe "long centuries" of just over one hundred years. This shows that we are dissipating more energy than before. This seems clear if we consider the increasing use we have made of coal and oil.
The figure of Thomas Piketty reproduced on my 118 ticket shows that the European economies collapsed in 1910. It followed the first world war. It is therefore natural to start a new cycle in 1918. It can be broken down into 4 phases of 30 each. According to the nomenclature of Turchin and Nefedof, the first phase, called depression would go from 1918 to 1948. It includes the great depression of 1929. Known as the glorious 30, the expansion phase would go from 1948 to 1978. Then comes the stagflation phase, marked by the coming to power of Ronald Reagan in the US and Margaret Thatcher in England. This phase extends from 1978 to 2008. The banking crisis of 2008 would mark the beginning of the crisis phase.
As for the first three phases, it is expected that the crisis phase lasts 30 years. It would go from 2008 to 2038. By the middle of this phase, we can expect a significant economic collapse. The Italian Ugo Bardi calls it a cliff of Seneca. Centered on the 2023 year, this collapse could take place towards the end of the present French presidential mandate. However, we will have to wait until the year 2038 to see the end of the crises.
Reproduced here again, the figure of the 117 ticket allows us to provide additional details. A phase of crisis starts from an inegalitarian society in phase of stagflation (top of the figure). Governments try to maintain production, but differences of opinion clash. The high thresholds of the connections of the neural network make any agreement difficult so that the governments become more and more authoritarian (right side of the figure). It follows many conflicts (crises).
As we have seen, economic output is expected to collapse towards the end of the current presidential mandate: it is the fall of the top of the Seneca cliff. A collapse of production implies a regression: we will then observe a return to more traditional practices (see bottom right of the figure). In a world dominated by competition, everyone will rediscover the merits of cooperation. The high thresholds of the neural network connections mean that cooperation will remain difficult to establish, but once it is established, it will persist. Gradually the intensity of the network connections will increase (bottom of the figure), but the high thresholds of the connections will always prevent the network from "percolating". The economy will be down.
It is only in the next phase, the so-called depression phase, that the thresholds will begin to fall, allowing the economy to recover. The society will then become more egalitarian, but this will not happen before 2038. I will not be here to see it, but most of my readers, active today, will be able to check it. If my description corresponds to what they observe, then the theoretical vision presented here will come out of it and an important step will be taken in our understanding of the evolution of our societies.
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