by Bardal » 15/12/18, 01:57
Here, while we are at it, some small reflections on the current availability of electrical energy, in France always
- if an EV consumes an average of 3000 kWh per year, i.e. 3x10 ^ 6 Wh, 1 million VE will consume 3x10 ^ 12 Wh, i.e. 3 TeraWh, and 10 million, 30 TeraWh. Some even say that 20 million will be 60 TeraWh.
- French nuclear power plants have a load factor of 75%; they can be 90% available (the difference is that they run less at night and in summer); running them at 90% costs nothing or almost nothing (a little uranium, for around 1 / 1000th of euro per kWh) and would bring in 15% of their current production (a little more even), or 15% of 400 TeraWh , or 60 TeraWh; 60 TeraWh, here it reminds me of something. And all this without any investment, or even any additional expense, or even a strengthening of the network ...
- this is not enough ? We want to go up to 37 million EVs, or electrify the PL; well, we export 50 or 60 TeraWh every year, to countries which are already largely favored since they have photovoltaic and wind (and coal or gas). There, it costs, what these exports bring us, but it is more than offset by the drop in oil imports. And still without any investment.
- is that still not enough? Come on, it's going to be nice, there are two nuclear units in perfect working order that will be sent to the date; that would make about fifteen cheap TeraWh (recycling, that's green); in less provo, there are still 8 million "all-electric" homes to switch to heat pumps (it's 4, 5 or 6 times cheaper per home than an EV), picking up in the process a small fifty TeraWh ...
In fact, it is certainly not the availability of electrical energy that constitutes a limiting factor for the development of EVs; Obviously, if we refuse nuclear at all costs, it becomes more difficult ... But we don't have to choose stupid options all the time.
The real limiting factor is obviously the batteries, expensive and not very durable in their current form; can we have some hopes in research and advances in technology? I think so, but it's a gamble ...
NB I hardly believe in VE ULMs; it's too far from the habits and needs of users (we knew this approach in the 50s and 60s, it never took off); I believe much more in light cars (type Ax Citroen, or 4L, or Fiat 500, or Mini), with limited autonomy (100-150 km), for daily trips, and in plug-in hybrid cars (90 km in electricity, 500 petroleum) for which electricity would cover 95% of trips and petrol the rest, for long trips ...
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