Oil: when there are more, there are still

[C moa]

Hello everybody
As some people already know, I am an oil tanker (even if it has been 2 years since I left the profession). I also worked on Girassol and Dalia in Angola that some cited above.

I would like to send you some additional information:
1) there is much more carbon (whatever its form) in the basement than what our atmosphere can support. It is estimated between 5 and 10 times.
2) we have been in a crisis since 2014 and underinvestment since. However, discoveries are still being made but will not be able to compensate for the natural drops in production which are faster than the drop in consumption. The awakening will be painful and everyone will criticize the super profits of the oil companies while forgetting that it is more and more expensive and difficult to go and draw it.
3) it is more and more difficult to exploit, for comparison, before 1950, we would recover 110 barrels per barrel invested today, we are rather at 10 for 1 and in some cases at 4 for 1 (oil sands for example). If the price and profitability are there, there is no reason why the oil tankers should not go looking for new reserves.
4) France consumes 1,5 mbeopd per day ... When do we start to reduce our consumption ??

PS: the oil companies started investing in renewables a while ago and great companies would have disappeared without their intervention.

Good Sunday to all

[moinsdewatt]

Mexico: discovery of a major oil and gas deposit

AFP publishes 03 Nov 2017

Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto on Friday announced the discovery of a "large" oil and gas field in the state of Veracruz, in the east of the country.

This deposit would contain reserves estimated at 1,5 billion barrels of crude oil and would be the "most important discovery of the last fifteen years" onshore (on land) for the public company Pemex, stressed Mr. Peña Nieto during a public meeting.

The extraction should be able to be done "in a relatively short time and at low cost" because the deposit is close to already existing infrastructures of Pemex, according to the Mexican president.

The discovery comes as production from the oil giant fell in the third quarter to 1,8 million barrels per day, down 12% from the same period in 2016.

The company Pemex, which generates about 16% of the Mexican state's revenues, recorded a net loss of $ 5,3 billion in the third quarter, mainly due to the impact of natural disasters on its production in September.

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... gaz-171103

...........
The Ixachi-1 well that lies 72 kilometers (45 miles) south of the port of Veracruz is believed to contain 1.5 billion barrels of oil in place, or about 350 million in proven, probable and possible reserves.

Production of light oil and wet gas could start “in a year, the end of 2018 or 2019”, Pemex Chief Executive Officer Jose Antonio Gonzalez Anaya said Friday in a phone interview. “It is in an area where there is already a lot of infrastructure that will help to develop the field.”
..............
Pemex has yet to determine the amount of investment needed to develop the discovery or whether the company will seek partners, according to Gonzalez Anaya. “First we have to begin with a plan for development before we know how much it's going to cost,” he said. 'There's a lot of work to do. ”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... cruz-state

[sen-no-sen]

Regardless of the size of the deposit, this will not change much to the inevitable arrival of PAO (Peak all oil) or "peak all oil" (period 2015/2025).

[Bardal]

Regardless of the size of the deposit, this will not change much to the inevitable arrival of PAO (Peak all oil) or "peak all oil" (period 2015/2025).

Yes, without a doubt, it's mathematically unstoppable ...

But if Peak Oil is reached one day, by being imposed by the laws of the market confronted with the laws of physics, it is clear that it will be too late to reverse the runaway of the Earth thermal machine.

What is on the agenda now is to leave most of the carbon sources of energy buried, that is to say to get out of the Peak Oil (and Peak Gas, or Coal) logic. .. Otherwise, it will be too late ...

In theory, this is what a properly designed and applied "carbon" tax should aim for ... We are far from it.

[dirk pitt]

[color = red] This deposit would contain reserves estimated at 1,5 billion barrels of crude oil and would be the "most important discovery of the last fifteen years" onshore (on land)

Wow, 1.5Mb is about 17 days of global oil consumption. big deal!
production being more and more difficult as recalled by Cmoa above, it will no longer meet demand in the short term (a few years)
The problems of CO2 and global warming will then be the least of our concerns in relation to the coming energy crisis.

[sen-no-sen]

What is on the agenda now is to leave most of the carbon sources of energy buried, that is to say to get out of the Peak Oil (and Peak Gas, or Coal) logic. .. Otherwise, it will be too late ...

In theory, this is what a properly designed and applied "carbon" tax should aim for ... We are far from it.

Too late, the Peak All OIL is now:

Simulation of the world production of liquids from 1870 to 2100.

The vertical line is 2010. With this simulation, the historical maximum of production is around 2020. This date, a few years apart, is now fairly widely shared among the “technicians” of the petroleum sector (the forecasts are much more optimistic are generally the fact of simple trend extensions of the past, without any other form of in-depth study!), on the other hand the debate remains animated on the height of the peak and the speed of the decline after the maximum.

https://jancovici.com/transition-energetique/petrole/a-quand-le-pic-de-production-mondial-pour-le-petrole/

With more or less 5 years near the peak is reached or will be reached very very soon.

The problems of CO2 and global warming will then be the least of our concerns in relation to the coming energy crisis.

Effectively!
The coming energy crisis should lead - as it was the case with the world peak oil of conventional in 2005/2006 - an economic crisis which, in view of the hyper indebtedness of the industrialized countries will be very detrimental to world peace.
Besides, let it be said: the energy transition officially aims to limit the future effects of global warming, but unofficially it is above all a means (very late) to make up for the drop in oil production.

[dirk pitt]

Besides, let it be said: the energy transition officially aims to limit the future effects of global warming, but unofficially it is above all a means (very late) to make up for the drop in oil production.

not always agree with sen-no-sen, I agree here enough and it's quite rare that we hear this thesis.
the upcoming shortage of oil cannot be officially recognized by politicians as it is a fact. there is no solution to this lack to come.

[sen-no-sen]

not always agree with sen-no-sen, I agree here enough and it's quite rare that we hear this thesis.
the upcoming shortage of oil cannot be officially recognized by politicians as it is a fact. there is no solution to this lack to come.

Let us say that there are solutions but that they are hardly acceptable.

[moinsdewatt]

and yet Drill baby Drill, TRUMP and its administration say it:

Opening the way for offshore oil and gas drilling, Trump is sweeping the Obama effect (again)

Léna Corot on 05/01/2018 Usine Nouvelle

Donald Trump paves the way for oil and gas development off the American coast. Returning once again to the policy led by Barack Obama, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke announced a new five-year national program on the management of maritime energy resources authorizing the offshore exploitation of oil and gas over a very large majority of the coastline of the United States.

As part of a new national program on the management of maritime energy resources spanning the period 2019-2024, Home Secretary Ryan Zinke announced Thursday January 4 that he will again authorize the exploitation of oil and gas on a vast majority of the American coast. With this new announcement, the Trump administration is once again reversing a decision by its predecessor and continues to unravel Barack Obama's environmental policy. The United States wants to authorize the exploitation of offshore oil and gas on 90% of American coastal waters, which would contain 98% of the still unexploited oil and gas resources located in the federal domain, said the Secretary of the Interior in a statement. By comparison, the current law excludes 94% of these coastal waters from drilling, specifies the Secretary of the Interior.

Ryan Zinke added that this initial proposal includes 47 licenses spread over 25 of the 26 zones planned for offshore exploration and production of gas and oil. 19 licenses would be granted off the coast of Alaska, 7 in the Pacific region, 12 in the Gulf of Mexico and 9 in the Atlantic region, the statement said. The new program therefore plans to grant the largest number of offshore licenses in the history of the United States, the government said.

An initial proposal open to discussion

But this is only an initial proposal to clarify the Trump administration. This program is open to discussion. Local and federal authorities, various agencies and civil society will have their say before the final decision, which is expected to be made in the coming months, said Ryan Zinke. Public consultation is crucial step in process, says government

"The important thing is to find the right balance between the protection of the coastline and people and the energy self-sufficiency of the United States", assures Ryan Zinke. It is not because a zone is currently in this project that it will finally be in the final program open to licenses. Already attacking Barack Obama's Clean Power Plan, Donald Trump signed last March a decree on the “energy independence” of the United States to dismantle the rules enacted by his predecessor in order to achieve the country's energy independence . Once again, the Trump administration is therefore reversing the policy of its predecessor in order to achieve this goal.

States opposed to offshore exploitation

Federal states have already reacted. On the West Coast, governors of California, Oregon and Washington oppose this program. In a joint statement, they say that "this political decision to open up the beautiful and tranquil Pacific Rim to offshore oil and gas development faces a decade of opposition from [their three states], Republicans and Democrats combined ".

Rick Scott, Governor of Florida, also reiterated his opposition to drilling offshore his state. "I immediately requested to meet with Secretary Ryan Zinke to discuss the concerns raised by this project and the need to remove Florida from the list," he added in a statement. Once again, Donald Trump's project is far from unanimous. Will he take the feedback into account before making the final decision?

https://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/e ... ma.N633808

[moinsdewatt]

Mexico: auction of 19 oil fields

AFP published on Feb 01. 2018

Mexico auctioned off 19 deepwater oil fields located in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday during the largest auction since the country opened its energy sector to the private sector.

Nineteen oil companies participated in these eighth auctions, including the French group Total, which only submitted an offer for which it was not selected. The Anglo-Dutch oil giant Royal Dutch Shell has won nine lots, four in his name, four in a consortium with Qatar Petroleum, and another partner with the Mexican oil giant Pemex.

Pemex won four lots, two of which were in its own name. PC Carigali, a subsidiary of the Malaysian oil giant Petronas, won six lots, two single and four in alliance with other companies. The deposits are all located off the state of Tamaulipas, northeast of Mexico. They have reserves estimated in total at 4,2 billion barrels. Ten deposits did not find takers.

"This is another success for the oil sector in Mexico," said Deputy Minister of Hydrocarbons Aldo Flores. These allocations should generate an investment of 93 billion dollars and could create 230 jobs during the first fifteen years, according to the minister. Production could start in 000.

By auctioning these deposits, Mexico is seeking to counter the decline in its production, which fell again by 9,6% in 2017, according to figures from the Pemex company. Mexico in particular competes with Brazil to attract foreign investors to its energy sector. “Brazil is very attractive for companies that operate in deep waters,” said Alejandra Leon, analyst at IHS Markit.

These eighth auctions follow the energy reform launched by President Enrique Peña Nieto in 2013, which ended the state monopoly of the Mexican oil giant Pemex, almost 80 years old.

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... ers-180201