Nicolas Sarkozy now wants France to exploit its unconventional hydrocarbons. But is it worth the effort?
Le Point - Published on 27/09/2014 By JASON WIELS
To drill or not to drill our basements deep, that is the question. It is even the arlésienne of the French energy debate. One day, a parliamentary report reopens the debate. The following, an opinion of the Academy of Sciences. Another still is Arnaud Montebourg, then Minister of Productive Recovery, who wants "clean" extraction of shale gas. Then think tanks get involved: one classified on the left, the other on the right!
Nicolas Sarkozy's turnaround on Thursday on the file perfectly embodies this incessant back and forth. In 2011, it was under his presidency that the Jacob Law was adopted. It will be validated in 2013 by the Constitutional Council. It prohibits "the exploration and exploitation of liquid or gaseous hydrocarbon mines by hydraulic fracturing", the only proven technique to release and recover shale oil and gas trapped in the bedrock, although also criticized for its impact environmental. In the process, Nicolas Sarkozy asks his Minister of Ecology, Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, to "ensure that the permits [of the oil companies, Editor's note] are strictly limited to conventional activities". "It is clear and it is final," he added.
Treasure or curse?
Yet on Thursday, on his first day of the field campaign, the UMP presidential candidate took a 180-degree turn: "I cannot accept that the United States has become from the point of view of the independent energy thanks to shale gas and that France cannot take advantage of this new energy while unemployment is ravaging so many of our families. This is unacceptable. " Faced with sluggish growth, would shale gas be the solution?
Still it would be necessary to know exactly the French reserves. That's the billion dollar question, maybe more, maybe less. It is indeed difficult today to say if we are sitting on a treasure. Or a curse, because, for some environmentalists, at the time of the fight against climate change, it would be better to wisely leave these gas and oil resources where they are. On the other hand, the energy bill of France, which amounted in 2012 to 68,7 billion euros, cannot leave indifferent. Isn't it better to burn blue-white-red energy and tax this certainly polluting windfall, others argue, to finance the energy transition?
The big gap in estimates
"There are two reserves in France: the Paris Basin, where shale oil is found, and the South-East basin which contains shale gas. The first is better known because of the number of drilled wells and data acquired from the characterization of the bedrock ”, analyzes François Kalaydjian, deputy director at the French Institute of Petroleum and New Energies (Ifpen). Despite the Parisian history, the range of estimates is still very wide.
According to "a rough extrapolation" (sic) published by CGEIET and CGEDD *, there are 6,3 billion barrels of potentially recoverable oil in this basin which stretches from Havre to Lorraine. Hess, an American oil tanker, is less optimistic. Quoted by a parliamentary report, the company sees rather 1 to 6,4 billion unconventional barrels to be fetched. The difference is size. One billion barrels is a year and a half of national consumption in 2013. High range? We are almost ten years old ...
On the gas side in the South-East, then, there, it is no longer a gap, but a chasm! If we are to believe data also extrapolated in 2013 by the US Energy Information Agency, French basements contain "3 billion cubic meters of technically recoverable gas". Proof that the estimate is shady: it is down 900% compared to the first calculations made in 23. This figure is however enough to make any gas giant dream, it is almost a century of national consumption. This time, it is CGEIET and CGEDD who moderate these estimates. Based on figures provided in particular by Total and GDF Suez, they estimate gas reserves at 2011 billion technically exploitable cubic meters, or nearly 500 years of consumption.
It would of course be necessary to conduct exploratory drilling to be sure, but, even on this point, it is difficult to say how many test wells should be drilled. "I cannot tell you a priori how many wells you have to drill, there is no magic number. A few dozen, no doubt? It depends on the heterogeneity of the basin, its structure, the variability of the properties of the basin. rock, etc. ", points out François Kalaydjian. Once the wells are drilled, whatever the results, the temptation could be strong to exploit them ...
At the same time, no one really cared about estimating possible environmental damage - how much would it cost, for example, to contaminate a water table because of a breach in the borehole? In short, faced with a lot of uncertainties, difficult for the moment to decide the question, figures against figures, economic benefits against ecological cost.
Are the French ready to give up their gardens?
The French, by dint of hearing the subject regularly come back to their ears, begin to form an opinion on the subject. According to Ifop, which carried out a study on the French and shale gas in early 2013, more than one in two knows the subject. Among these, 58% of them declare themselves favorable to exploratory drilling, but 85% believe that it is a technique that is not well mastered. Not sure they know on the other hand that, unlike the Americans, owners of their basement, in France, an exploitation of hydrocarbons on private land does not earn a penny to its owner. In any case, in the state of our Mining Code, whose redesign is still pending. Having the nuisance without the benefits, not sure that it helps to increase the drilling on the territory ...
An anecdote from across the Atlantic sums up the whole problem well. Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon - America's largest gas producer - has filed a lawsuit against his neighbors to prevent the installation of a water tower at the gates of his ranch. The building was to serve as a reservoir to supply, thanks to a cloud of heavy goods vehicles, very water-intensive drilling. What to lose in calm and in value his property ... Shale gas, yes, but not in his garden.
* Hydrocarbons from source rock in France, initial report and additional report (February 2012), General Council for the Economy, Industry, Energy and Technology (CGEIET) and General Council for the Environment and of sustainable development (CGEDD)