The savings from oil drops 2015: 160 € by French!

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The savings from oil drops 2015: 160 € by French!




by moinsdewatt » 18/03/16, 15:56

What the French saved thanks to the fall in oil prices

17/03/2016

In its note of conjuncture published this Thursday 17 March, the INSEE evaluates to 23,3 billions of euros the sum saved in 2015 by the households and the companies because of the tumble of the courses of the black gold. For each French it represents 160 euros on average.

The Thirty Glorious, blessed period of growth of the tricolor economy, had ended with the oil shock of 1973. 43 years later, France is facing a real counter-shock oil.

From $ 112 in mid-2014, oil prices have slipped to the point of hovering around $ 40. A shock which results "in a transfer of wealth from producer countries to importing countries including France", recalls Vladimir Passeron, head of the economic department at INSEE.

The conjuncture institute had already calculated that the fall in oil prices had boosted French growth in 2015 by 0,4%. But INSEE had not yet quantified the amount of this "transfer of wealth". It is now done.

23,3 billions of savings


In its latest outlook, INSEE estimates that the plummeting prices of black gold have saved France 23,3 billion euros in 2015 compared to 2013, and 7 billion in 2014. For 2016, the institute expects 34 billions of savings. In detail, for 2015, 14,1 billion were saved on oil imports, 3,9 billion on gas and 5,2 billion on direct exports of refined products (gasoline, diesel ...).

Who benefits from these savings? Answer: everyone. "This gain was first received by the branches of refining and manufacturing of gaseous fuels, then it was quickly passed on to households and other branches of the economy," explains Vladimir Passeron.

With regard to households, it should be recalled that fuel costs represent 5% of their annual expenditures in value, which is five times more than gas on average. Even if, obviously, INSEE reminds us that the drop in oil prices has not been completely transmitted to pump prices, gasoline and diesel prices being composed of taxes for about 60%. INSEE considers that a fall of 10 euros on the price of the barrel is translated in the long term by a fall of 7 to 8 cents on the price with the liter without tax.

Parisians and Marseilles won less

In the end, the drop in oil prices still won 10,6 billion euros in 2015 household tricolor, compared to 2013, calculates the INSEE, about 160 euros per French. Of these 10 billions, 8,6 billion are due to petroleum products as such, and 2 billion is explained by the decrease in prices of imported gas.

If all French households have benefited from this windfall, the effect has been more noticeable for some than for others. “Everyone has gained purchasing power, but the gains have been greater for the less well-off households,” emphasizes Vladimir Passeron.

Fuel and heating expenses are by nature incompressible expenses, that is to say, it is difficult to reduce their amount. It is therefore the most modest French, for whom these expenses take the most space, who benefit the most from the drop in prices. The 50% of the less well-off households thus saw their purchasing power increase by 0,6-0,7%, while for the richest 20%, the figure turns more around 0,3-0,4%.

Another important aspect plays: the localization. In Île-de-France, where households travel mainly via public transport, fuel costs represent only 2,9% of the French budget against 5% at the national level. In the same logic, French households spend less on heating in the Southeast than those living in the North. Hence geographical differences: the purchasing power gain was only 0,3% for households in the Paris region, and 0,5% around the Mediterranean, against more than 0,6% in Eastern France .

Companies win, households too

On the business side, the savings made in 2015 compared to 2013 are estimated at 14,2 billion. The sectors which have benefited the most from this windfall are logically those which consume the most energy. This is the case for chemicals (2,9 billion), but also freight (2 billion) and air transport (1,3 billion). "To a lesser extent, companies in construction, agriculture and business services have also benefited from the decline in energy products", adds INSEE.

The fact remains that, here again, the consumer wins. Because, if in the short term this "oil effect" swells the margins of companies, in a second time they pass it on to the prices of their products or their services. And the scale depends on the sector.

"The chemical industry has already passed on in the prices of its products almost all of its lower costs, which has mainly benefited households. For road freight, the transmission is usually slower and at this stage a little less than half of the fall in intermediate consumption costs was passed on in the prices of this branch, ”explains Vladimir Passeron. Airlines, for their part, have left their margins inflated and "have barely lowered their prices," he adds.

Chemistry redistributed 2,6 billions of euros, of which 1,2 billion to other companies and 400 million to households, which saw the prices of their chemical purchases (soaps, perfumes, washing up liquid ...) decline. For freight, on 800 million redistributed euros, almost all (700 million) went to other French companies.

http://bfmbusiness.bfmtv.com/observatoi ... 59908.html
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