Pellets and wood pellets: what future for the price?

[Christophe]

Hey hopla, HS image ... in a few weeks ... that's why I insist on hosting interesting images on the server forum...

Here is a "durable" equivalent:

[Christophe]

1 million tonnes of pellets = 500 tonnes of FOD (ladle) in energy equivalent.

We are therefore in a ratio of 0,5 to 7,4 or 1 to 15 [it would be necessary to correct by density, but for an "order of magnitude", that will suffice!]

Come on, it's not complicated, by multiplying the 7,4 million m3 by approximately 0,85, that makes 6,3 million tonnes of FOD, approximately.

So 0,5 for 6,3 ... or 1 for almost 13 ...

Uh ... where you found 7,4 million tonnes of FOD for France because this page *
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fioul_dom ... _en_France gives 15 million m3 of FOD in 2010

Suppose it remained the same order of magnitude in 2016 and in passing we will appreciate the decrease of about 25% in 10 years ...

So we are in a mass ratio of 15 * 0.84 to 1 or 12.6 but the energy ratio is around 1 to 33 ... so when we burn 1 kWh of pellets in France, 33 kWh of fuel oil are still burned "elsewhere" ... but it's still better than nothing ...

1 kg FOD = 11.9 kWh
1 kg pellets = 4.5 kWh

Ratio: 11.9 * 12.6 / (4.5 * 1) = 33.3

* it is not specified there if it is the FOD only for domestic heating (I suppose that yes considering the rest of the nature of the article ???) or the overall consumption of FOD (therefore + tertiary + agriculture + industry ???) if this is the 2nd case your report would be good ...

[Christophe]

FYI, and echoing a debate there was here a few years ago, like "anyway, the price of pellets will go up and line up with the FOD", I ordered there a few days at less than 220 euros per tonne. I don't know yet if I benefit from a discount for cash payment on the promotional price. If so, it will be 217 euros per tonne including tax delivered (base 8 tonnes; I emptied my silo and refilled it for 2 years).

Yes you are right: it is not the pellets which are aligned on the FOD but the reverse!

Currently the price per kWh is therefore roughly the same ... see the updated curve ...

It remains to take into account the human cost and the pollution of FOD ... we never waged a war for pellets ... (for wood can be but it must date a little ...)

[Did67]

I don't know if you are kidding or what ???

The price of the pellets is "almost" independent of the price of the FOD. Come on, quibbling, we see that when FOD is very expensive, the pellets go up a bit. It was then that a maximum of pellet boilers were installed and tensions were created on the market, while new factories were launched. And without doubt, the manufacturers, who are also opportunists, "round" their margins ...

So come on, a "minimal" influence exists ... But nothing that looks like an alignment - that's what was all about in the debate that we had.

[Christophe]

No mockery: we saw that the price of the pellets was rather stable and not aligned with the fuel oil (at least according to the curves we posted here), it's a good thing ...

But the current low price of fuel oil has joined that of Pellets.

This no longer makes investment worthwhile (purely financially speaking I hear) of a Pellet boiler ... obviously, and fortunately, there are other concepts to take into account ...

[Ahmed]

Sometimes the underlying economic logic is confusing because of the multiplicity of factors and their respective weights, which vary depending on the economic situation ...
If the pellet price remains so low, it is probably due to dumping on the raw material or on the producers (competition); it would be logical that balancing should be observed over time.
Of course, the fixity of the use (non-substituting of fuels) means that the pellet must be significantly lower to bring about and consolidate a market for the purchase of dedicated equipment, in which the "environmentalist" motivation is all the same. very dependent on the amount of investment ...
Once a captive market has been established, it would be surprising for economic players to give this kind of "bonus" to their customers, apart from the slight depreciation due to material constraints greater than the use of a fuel such as network gas. , for example.

[Did67]

From time to time, it is interesting to come back to what we debated 5 or 10 years ago ... and to compare our "ideas" then with the reality of the facts today.

I just paid my pellet bill this morning: 7,3 tonnes (for two years) at € 1 including tax (at the bottom of the bill). Based on € 706,70 including tax per tonne bulk.

There has been about 30% increase over a period of 11,5 years (my first order, in January 2008, was € 175 incl. Tax per ton) Or 2,6% per year on average ...

It is above inflation. But not "catastrophic" ...

[1360]

Hello,

Hey, I just delivered my 9 tonnes of pellets and, once again, the price is going down.

In 2009 I paid 375 francs / ton inclusive of tax and delivered, and this year I touched it at 307 francs / ton.

Clearly, the pellet has dropped by 18% in 10 years, in Switzerland.

I have an emotional thought for those who predicted a price hike ...

[Ahmed]

The price does not seem to be a good indicator of physical reality. It is more sensitive in this specific case to other factors, such as competition.

[Did67]

I don't remember where, but we had discussed it. Some thought that producers were going to align themselves with other energies. I recalled that it is a very simple technology, which does not require considerable investment. And that from then on, a multitude of actors (sawmills wishing to recover a "waste" which they sold at a low price, new operators in the renewable energy sector, traditional energy companies such as Total, etc.) could set up shop . With such a "fragmented" market, unlike the "big energy" oligopolies (oil, electricity, gas), we could hope for real competition.

Added to this is the fact that these are predominantly "short circuits" (at regional level, often for bulk; even if a national market is emerging - especially for pellets in bags in DIY stores; and even international for this market and that of large power plants).

The harsh reality of economic forecasts. More brilliant, sorry, more famous, were mistaken!