Monday February 12 2007
Paris, France
In this edition:
Renewable energy at the heart of a fierce stock market battle
Delighted shareholders reap very significant capital gains
Isabelle Mouilleseaux
China and Africa: honeymoon
And the impacts you could benefit from
Simone wapler
put editomp@publications-agora.fr in your address book to prevent filters
anti-Spam do not inadvertently block the reception of your Raw Materials Edito.
Renewable energy at the heart of a fierce stock market battle
Isabelle Mouilleseaux
At the risk of repeating myself: renewable energies will tomorrow be at the heart of all issues. Energy issues of course, ecological and above all financial.
The nuclear, wind, solar and geothermal sectors… all, without exception, have a bright future ahead of them.
Those who understood this very early are already positioned on the best values of these different sectors; Sooner or later, they will profit from it, like the shareholders of REpower, who are now earning a jackpot.
The energy sector is concentrating at full speed, and renewable energies will not escape this trend. See rather ...
REpower: a highly coveted target
This German company develops, manufactures and markets high power turbines for the wind energy market. REpower is an essential service provider for those who want to set up wind turbine fields. And as all governments, even in France, want to develop renewable energy to reduce their energy dependence, REpower has the wind in its sails. The company, n ° 7 worldwide in the wind energy market, is growing rapidly, has solid know-how and technology and arouses envy.
Renewable energies at the heart of Areva's strategy
What does our French champion remind you of? Nuclear, of course. But what you may not know is that Areva is making the most of renewable energy.
Its strategy: to offer the widest possible range of CO2-free electricity generation. Exit therefore the "100% nuclear" strategy! Areva is diversifying its sources of clean energy and has been embarking on biomass, fuel cells and wind power for several years.
In this respect, moreover, the company recently obtained contracts for the construction of six biomass power plants (four in Brazil and two in Thailand). Their construction gives the right to carbon emission reduction certificates that can be upgraded under the Kyoto Protocol. An additional asset that will weigh heavily on Areva's accounts within a few years, you will see ...
Still within the framework of its new development strategy, Areva, which already held 30% of the capital of REpower, launched on January 22 a friendly takeover bid on Repower which valued the company at 850 million euros, or 105 euros per share. . Everything was going well in the best of worlds until the Indian Suzlon Energy appeared. One again !
The Indian Suzlon Energy wants to win the bet. And he puts the means into it!
Suzlon is nothing less than the world's No. 5 in wind energy. His strategy could not be clearer: he wants, by buying REpower, to become the world number 3 in wind power. And believe me, his ambition is certainly to finish the race ahead in a few years.
Unlike Europeans who are slow to understand the issue of renewable energy, the Indians very quickly understood and bet on it without counting ...
Little anecdote about this in passing: it is an Indian who, last week, concluded a partnership with a small French company (based in Rhône-Alpes) which had patented a technology around the fuel cell. Technology that no one in France wanted!
The Indians are going to develop this technology on a large scale by selling in India first (and then eventually here!) Clean cars.
I told you: they are visionaries. In addition, they have a keen sense of business and an extraordinary intelligence.
But let's go back to Suzlon. It is clear that it is putting the package: it offers a bid 20% higher than that of Areva, and offers 126 euros per share, which values the capital of Repower to more than a billion euros. The Indian benefits from the support of the second shareholder of REpower, the Portuguese group Martifer, which holds 25% of the target's capital.
But let's be clear: Suzlon is funding 100% of the operation. Another Indian billionaire who can put millions on the table personally… And I wouldn't be surprised if he paid cash!
The wind market is in turmoil and the shareholders pocket the stake
The Repower action, which was worth less than 60 euros last October, is now worth more than 140. An increase of 140% in 4 months! Good performance.
Just since January 19, the day before the announcement of the takeover bid by Areva, the REpower share has jumped 40%.
Areva going to outbid? She would be well advised to do so. There are sometimes strategic issues that deserve to be surpassed by the target. And we are clearly in this case. At least that's my opinion.
The OPA ends on March 7. We bet that by then there will be twists and turns that shareholders can only benefit from. So much the better for them ...
[Editor's note: And since we are talking about renewable energy and capital gains, know that our specialist forecasts gains of 100% to ... 700% on a handful of companies perfectly positioned in a very specific compartment of alternative energies. Do not miss such an opportunity: to position yourself without further delay, follow the guide ...]
China and Africa: honeymoon
Simone wapler
Reading the majority of the headlines in the financial press, one would almost forget that China is a communist country. If you are suspicious in nature like me, it should be remembered from time to time that communism and capitalism do not mix, and to put a damper on the ecstatic media purr.
My purpose is not to deliver a couplet "human rights", but to try to make you benefit from the consequences of the new form of colonization of Africa by China by identifying some good mining investments.
China needs Africa to build economic power
To begin, we must remember that a nation must be independent. The obvious is sometimes good to say. China only accepts to play the market economy game to the extent that it allows it to gain its independence. It therefore wishes to control its supplies of energy and raw materials in order to supply in complete independence (translate: "by avoiding in the long term to undergo the capitalist laws of the market") which will become the largest economy in the world.
Africa, a traditional reservoir of raw materials, plays an essential role in achieving this ambition of economic independence.
To accompany their industrial developments, the ancient European empires resorted to colonization. The American Empire, itself rich in raw materials, was not so much involved in Africa. The USSR tried to establish a system for exchanging large works there for the adoption of a communist regime, but its success was mixed: too much ideology and not enough money.
Locking in strategic materials
China has two colossal advantages over the USSR: mountains of dollars and no desire to export Marxist happiness. It improved the Soviet way. Major works and rain of subsidies against commitments to sell forward certain strategic products. And believe me, these futures are well locked. Of course, the communist comrades are not observant of the "human rights" qualities of the regimes that are sprinkled. Their objective is not at all the advance of the goddess Democracy in the world and even less that of the god Marx. Business is business, even in Chinese.
The shopping list…
As the Chinese are organized people, they made their shopping list. Communists love the plans and you can find this list in the Chinese five-year plan: coal, gas, oil, uranium, bauxite, copper, aluminum, manganese and potassium. I am not inventing anything: this plan is available in English on many sites including www.china.org.cn/english. To this first list are added a few critical ingredients: platinum, rhodium, chrome…
Money ? Do you want some?
The development of trade between sub-Saharan Africa and China speaks for itself: 6,5 billion dollars in 1999 against 40 billion in 2006. The report of the last forum of China-Africa cooperation is also instructive. By 2009 will be injected: 3 billion dollars in preferential loans, 2 billion in credit, 5 billion in a China-Africa development fund. In addition to the construction of 30 hospitals and 100 schools, and the reception of 4 African scholarship recipients in Chinese universities, there are a few bits of civil engineering work: power plants, dams, mining infrastructure, foundry and refinery factories.
China's investments are concentrated in Zimbabwe, South Africa, Tanzania, Mozambique. Robert Mugabe, visiting Beijing during the forum China-Africa, was greeted by the Chinese with the honors due to his rank of great head of state reigning over ... strategic deposits of platinum and rhodium, chromium and nickel. The character of Mugabe is unanimously denounced by Western human rights, which in no way stoop to trade with him.
Cruel shortages loom
For the moment it is a Sino-African honeymoon: "our main challenge is not the fight against colonialism, but the fight against poverty, underdevelopment and for economic independence", judges the first Minister of Ethiopia Meles Zenawi. "Sincerity, cooperation and partnership," enthuses the Chinese ambassador to South Africa.
A honeymoon which the United States and Europe attend by holding the candle and smiling stupidly. The awakening of human rights champions risks being bitter. Just one example: chrome.
Take advantage of chromium
This metal is essential for technical steels and there is no substitute.
95% of the world's chromium resources are found in South Africa and Kazakhstan. China is locking deals with South Africa.
In the not-too-distant future, Westerners will find themselves faced with a nonexistent chrome market. They will urgently need to open mines in North America or Europe. Chromium will become a critical metal, as uranium or nickel already are. The United States mainly imports three-quarters of its chromium from South Africa. "It is one of the most strategic and critical materials," says the US Geological Survey laconically.
Investing in a chromium mine or prospecting project in Brazil, Finland or Turkey could be extremely profitable. There is none currently listed. But I point out the Finnish Outokumpu. This special steel manufacturer is one of the few to have its own chrome mine. The course was doubled in 2006. In my opinion, this is just the start.
Advertising
We all knew that this crisis was coming ...
... BUT WE DON'T WAIT SO SOON!
Discover the threat hanging over your world, your way of life ... and your investments! You don't have to suffer with others: like any crisis, these upheavals will also create opportunities.
For more information :
www.publications-agora.fr
www.la-chronique-agora.com
www.linstantane.com
source: www.publications-agora.fr
Whatever the "cause", there are always financiers on the lookout for a good deal ...... and yet they do not care about the state of health of the planet
