sicetaitsimple wrote:bardal wrote: The denominator is not about to drop compared to today ...
Not really understood? Some solutions, including the electrification of transport that I mentioned and that you quote, lower the denominator and possibly allow an increase in the numerator.
After that, we should not dream, there will be no big night given the figures at stake and the inertia of certain sectors (a vehicle fleet lasts about 20 years, a housing stock around 100). Having "progress rates" of 0,5 or 1% per year is already a good performance.
PS: "rate of progression" being a completely generic term in my head and totally unsuitable depending on what data we are interested in, the idea being just to say that it is necessarily very slow.
For the denominator story, it's simple to understand: if for Germany electricity weighs 600 TWh (this is the denominator), with transport, heating and industry, it will weigh nearly 2000 TWh ... Those who bet on a reduction in the consumption of electricity in the energy transition to increase the rate of RES are completely mistaken in the statement of the problem: even by increasing the numerator, the rate of RES will not increase not...
After, on the rest, I am a little less pessimistic: the annual sale of vehicles is more than 2, on a fleet of 000 or 000 million, that is much more than 32%; the policy followed must also be very proactive; but the French car fleet had been dieselized in about 33 years, mainly due to fashion ...
As for the building stock, it is not a question of replacing it, but of renovating it; there too, with a voluntarist plan, is it utopian to hope to arrive there for the main part before 2050?
The graph published by Izentrop does not prove that the more there is of RE the more we emit GHGs; but it proves that if renewable energy replaces nuclear power, it does nothing in terms of CO2 emissions ... It remains to be seen what goal we are looking for (for the German Greens, I have no questions), and reflect before launching such an expensive program ... what could we have done with such sums, and with what benefits? 1 million homes renovated energetically, that 30 billion per year ... and that saves 10 TWh per year ... and in less than 20 years, we have eliminated all oil heating ... Daydreams against the background of corner calculations of table ? Maybe, but maybe not ... it deserves a little attention ...