A speculative bubble in wind energy?

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A speculative bubble in wind energy?




by Christophe » 23/03/07, 17:19

A small article that shows that the world of wind power is not necessarily better than that of oil and gas ... :| men change (although) but the methods remain the same and as long as it is so the planet will morflera ...

Wind energy market valuations raise fears of a speculative bubble

Renewable energies are the subject of a real gold rush. Some people no longer hesitate to speak of the appearance of a new "new economy" which would be the replica of the Internet phenomenon of the 1990s. With the risk, again, of a speculative bubble around companies in the sector - manufacturers of equipment (wind turbines, solar ...) and producers of "green" energy - which will eventually explode.


The following: http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0 ... 645,0.html

ps: positive point nonetheless

"Institutional investors will unleash tsunamis of money in the new energy," he said. In particular insurers, increasingly worried about the consequences on their results of natural disasters linked to global warming. The bubble will form after the 2008 election, when the new American president will have to change energy policy (after the all-oil of the Bush years).
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jean63
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by jean63 » 23/03/07, 23:27

I think you are going to "dig" in the news of the stock market !! beware: slippery ground : Lol:

It is indeed the capitalism system that will manage the shift towards the era of oil-free, so speculators will get even richer and ... pollute even more with their movements by plane, in yachts, in powerful cars freeing up 300 g CO2 / km .... etc.
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by Polo » 24/03/07, 11:12

: Cry: : Cry: : Cry: : Cry: Pq but pq !! This year (1st year of engineering school so just after the terminal, the only year where we had philosophy) I tell myself that the philosophers have been very late to say that man is the only species thinking!! I don't know if she really thinks ... the only animal that invented torture, war, discrimination and patati and patata. Certainly the man invented lots of other tricks but not bcp are able to create a car or a computer for example but all (or almost) are capable of killing..finally I get lost in the subject..or not.
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by Christophe » 24/03/07, 11:29

jean63 wrote:I think you are going to "dig" in the news of the stock market !! beware: slippery ground : Lol:


Uh no i'm not looking for this is the info that comes to me : Mrgreen: ( it was sure http://www.econologique.info )
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by Christophe » 24/03/07, 11:31

Polo wrote:I don't know if she really thinks ...


If he thinks I reassure you that he thinks the man and even very well ...with his balls and his wallet ...
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by Rulian » 26/03/07, 09:37

To live the daily situation in my work (I work for a manufacturer of industrial wind turbines) I confirm that there is a powerful phenomenon of green bubble in the wind turbine. It is also not a big scoop on the part of the world.

The builders are viable and will hold up without problems: they have very well passed the German bubble (on developers and operators) which has already exploded (in advance the Germans :P ) and their order books are full. It takes several years to have a machine purchased today delivered !! The rising prices are therefore based on real industrial knowledge and skills, with concrete order books.

It is less easy for developers and operators of parks. Machine prices are rising, building permits are being sold at completely crazy prices and the profitability of the "fairest" projects becomes problematic. So it is clear that there will be "deaths" among developers and operators. But the wind industry as a whole will not weaken for all that.

All this to say that the influx of money is boosting the sector: factories are emerging from the ground in Europe and elsewhere and production capacities are climbing: this is therefore real growth in terms of number of machines. Long live the wave of cash: in the current system, this is a necessary condition for powerful renewable energy industries. We are still in the liberal system and, no offense to sorrowful spirits, we have to do well with it.
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by Christophe » 26/03/07, 09:48

Thank you for these details Rulian :)

Rulian wrote:It takes several years to have a machine purchased today delivered !!


I find this completely abnormal and inadmissible ... given the hype that we make of new energies and especially the employment situation of our countries! (I mean: it's not the workforce that would be lacking if ... we wanted!)

Rulian wrote:All this to say that the influx of money is boosting the sector: factories are emerging from the ground in Europe and elsewhere and production capacities are climbing: this is therefore real growth in terms of number of machines. Long live the wave of cash: in the current system, this is a necessary condition for powerful renewable energy industries. We are still in the liberal system and, no offense to sorrowful spirits, we have to do well with it.


Uh, I don't get it ... if there were so many factories coming out of the world, the deadlines you speak of would not exist ... Am I wrong? What is to be feared is that this wave of cash is killing the market ... : Evil:
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by Rulian » 26/03/07, 11:09

You don't increase production capacity in two months. The difference between demand and supply is really huge. It is in the tens or even hundreds of%. For example, the fleet installed in France more than doubled between 2005 and 2006 !!! In addition, growth is long and it is expensive to finance. And then too rapid growth can backfire even after a few years in the event of an air gap. So some manufacturers moderate their growth to avoid runaway.

Two or three years ago, the situation was not the same, the delays were only a few months and the demand was much lower. There is nothing inadmissible in time: the demand has just exploded, gives the manufacturers time to adapt !! I can assure you that it is not idle among the manufacturers. But it's still humans, they can't do everything with a magic wand !!

There is a difference between the desirable and the achievable! So stop seeing the scandal everywhere!
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by Christophe » 26/03/07, 11:32

Rulian, I don't see the scandal everywhere ... I especially see things that don't move... and sorry but A basic rule of capitalism is: the more the demand is enormous, the more the prices go up, the more the action-reaction time can be reduced thanks to capital raising ...

Or it is nothing or almost (in France I hear) ... Pkoi? Where are the Franco-French wind turbine manufacturers (I'm not talking about the installers, but the manufacturers)? You know better than me that there is not much ... and why so?

Finally, it is no coincidence that these are other energy companies (petroleum / nuclear in particular) which inflate wind prices ...

ps: doubling a park when you start from 0 it's not very hard ... (sorry it was easy that)
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by Rulian » 26/03/07, 12:09

Christophe wrote:Or it is nothing or almost (in France I hear) ... Pkoi? Where are the Franco-French wind turbine manufacturers (I'm not talking about the installers, but the manufacturers)? You know better than me that there is not much ... and why so?

But quite simply because the French have missed the boat. The wind industry has matured in Denmark and Germany and that's how it is. The Silicon Valley of wind power is Denmark and Germany. There are several who have tried (in France and Italy for example) to get started in the last 10 years, they have all taken a bowl simply because decades of experience and research cannot be invented . The biggest manufacturers today have been around for over 20 years! The technological and industrial backwardness is such that it is irratrapable. We are not going to buy nasty stuff made by a French industrialist who has just got wind power out of opportunism when we find in Germany and Denmark top and hyper-accomplished machines made by guys who have a job!

FYI, a little history of wind turbines (Danish wind site, but in French). You will agree that we have no equivalent in France.
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