EDF has a little trouble getting through the winter

Oil, gas, coal, nuclear (PWR, EPR, hot fusion, ITER), gas and coal thermal power plants, cogeneration, tri-generation. Peakoil, depletion, economics, technologies and geopolitical strategies. Prices, pollution, economic and social costs ...
moinsdewatt
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 5111
Registration: 28/09/09, 17:35
Location: Isére
x 553

EDF has a little trouble getting through the winter




by moinsdewatt » 04/11/16, 22:26

Nuclear: EDF revises further down its production forecast

Veronique Le Billon The 03 / 11 / 2016

Electricity prices on the wholesale market are climbing to record levels. EDF has delayed a few weeks the restart of several reactors.

As outside temperatures drop in France, they rise to the electricity markets. While the megawatt hour (MWh) was trading around 70 euros a few days ago, we now have to pay 275 euros for delivery next week. For peak hours, the wholesale price has even exceeded 500 euros / MWh, an unprecedented situation since the historic peak of cold in France, in February 2012when consumption reached 102,1 GW.

The situation is partly related to the scheduled drop in temperatures: they should be lower from 4 to 5 degrees to seasonal norms next week. To produce more electricity, the most expensive means of production are therefore gradually called on the grid (coal, gas, fuel oil, etc.). In France, the most "heat-sensitive" European country because of the large share of electric heating (about 30%), one less degree leads to an additional demand for 2,4 gigawatts.

300 million euros less Ebitda

But if this early cold worries the markets, it is because it combines with the exceptional shutdowns of nuclear reactors. Thursday, twenty slices were still stationary, representing 20 GW, nearly one third of nuclear capabilities. And the manager of the electricity transmission network RTE, which must present this Friday its annual scenario of the "passage of the winter", had to review in haste its forecasts for the weeks to come: EDF him meant Wednesday evening that it shifted the restart of five nuclear reactors. The electrician has also revised down a third time Thursday night, its nuclear production target for this year, between 378 and 385 terawatt hours (against 414 TWh originally planned). This further reduces by 300 million its forecast of Ebitda for 2016 (between 16 and 16,3 billion).

Only seven reactors are scheduled to produce electricity again by mid-November. And four additional installments must be stopped for three weeks in December and January following the controls requested by the Nuclear Safety Authority. The market is therefore likely to remain highly volatile in the coming weeks. "As soon as peak demand for electricity surpasses the 85 GW in the current context of high maintenance, spot electricity prices may rise sharply," notes Hélène Bonfils, consultant at IHS.

Higher prices will not have an immediate effect on consumer bills. "Prices reflect marginal volumes, because suppliers who have done their job properly have already covered the needs of their customers," says a supplier. For households, the formula for calculating retail prices is also smoothed over a long period. But current concerns still fuel a rise in wholesale prices for delivery next year. At 49 euros / MWh, they now far exceed the level of the Arenh (42 euros / MWh), the price at which EDF must sell to its competitors up to a quarter of its nuclear production, a counterpart to its monopoly to animate the competition in the supply of electricity. It is therefore likely that suppliers choose this option - they must decide in mid-November. Given the risks of speculation, EDF had asked for a suspension of this device, but the government chose to delay.

Beyond the evolution of market prices, some people now fear load shedding in case of harsh winter. "Our concern is the impact on processes of large industrial customers in case of load shedding," says the supplier. "We do not expect more than 100 gigawatts of consumption this winter because the demand has dropped in recent years," notes however Hélène Bonfils, IHS.

http://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-servic ... 040149.php
1 x

moinsdewatt
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 5111
Registration: 28/09/09, 17:35
Location: Isére
x 553

Re: EDF is struggling to get through the winter




by moinsdewatt » 04/11/16, 22:28

But reassure you Ségolène to speak:

Royal: France will not experience a shortage of electricity this winter

AFP 04 / 11 / 2016

The Minister of Environment and Energy, Ségolène Royal, assured Friday that France would not experience a shortage of electricity this winter, despite the shutdown of several nuclear reactors of EDF for security controls.

"No, there is no risk of a shortage," said Ms Royal, interviewed on radio Europe 1.

The Minister of Environment and Energy, Ségolène Royal, assured Friday that France would not experience a shortage of electricity this winter, despite the shutdown of several nuclear reactors of EDF for security controls.

"No, there is no risk of a shortage," said Ms Royal, interviewed on radio Europe 1.

http://www.boursorama.com/actualites/ro ... f4e03bf857
0 x
The shadow
I understand econologic
I understand econologic
posts: 171
Registration: 13/04/08, 15:16
x 2

Re: EDF is struggling to get through the winter




by The shadow » 04/11/16, 23:28

moinsdewatt wrote:But reassure you Ségolène to speak:

Royal: France will not experience a shortage of electricity this winter

AFP 04 / 11 / 2016

The Minister of Environment and Energy, Ségolène Royal, assured Friday that France would not experience a shortage of electricity this winter, despite the shutdown of several nuclear reactors of EDF for security controls.

"No, there is no risk of a shortage," said Ms Royal, interviewed on radio Europe 1.

The Minister of Environment and Energy, Ségolène Royal, assured Friday that France would not experience a shortage of electricity this winter, despite the shutdown of several nuclear reactors of EDF for security controls.

"No, there is no risk of a shortage," said Ms Royal, interviewed on radio Europe 1.

http://www.boursorama.com/actualites/ro ... f4e03bf857

Yes, of course, here we are reassuring OUF
0 x
Without Exhausting draw
User avatar
Did67
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 20362
Registration: 20/01/08, 16:34
Location: Alsace
x 8682

Re: EDF is struggling to get through the winter




by Did67 » 05/11/16, 13:01

One thing is to say that there will be no break ... Given the interconnections, we can indeed hope that our neighbors will help us!

The Swiss, for example, for a long time, fill their dams in spring / summer / early autumn by buying cheap electricity on the European market, then spinning full power when we are in the "red" zone. The same electricity is then worth 10 times more!

So, yes ... We can always say! As long as we do not talk finance!

One certainty: at the end of the end (even if it is probably postponed for political reasons), it will be the consumer who will pay; if not, it would be EdF who would be bankrupt, then bought by I do not know who (the Chinese?), which would apply a massive increase to make profitable the purchase ...
0 x
moinsdewatt
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 5111
Registration: 28/09/09, 17:35
Location: Isére
x 553

Re: EDF is struggling to get through the winter




by moinsdewatt » 05/11/16, 13:44

Did67 wrote:One thing is to say that there will be no break ... Given the interconnections, we can indeed hope that our neighbors will help us!
...


They have been helping us since mid October (except at night)

Eco2Mix Electricity production by sector

Eco2Mix Electricity consumption of France

Border trade

yesterday at 8 AM morning France imported 7.3 GW electric power!

that same afternoon we imported 1.2 GW.
1 x

User avatar
Did67
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 20362
Registration: 20/01/08, 16:34
Location: Alsace
x 8682

Re: EDF is struggling to get through the winter




by Did67 » 05/11/16, 14:13

moinsdewatt wrote: (except at night)
.


From 0 to 4 h du mat !!!
0 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 74055
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 8738

Re: EDF is struggling to get through the winter




by Christophe » 07/11/16, 11:28

Did67 wrote:One thing is to say that there will be no break ... Given the interconnections, we can indeed hope that our neighbors will help us!


In any case: do not rely on Belgium where most reactors are also stopped ...

Did67 wrote:The Swiss, for example, for a long time, fill their dams in spring / summer / early autumn by buying cheap electricity on the European market, then spinning full power when we are in the "red" zone. The same electricity is then worth 10 times more!


For what total storage capacity? A few GWh at most I presume? Hydropower is interesting to smooth the demand but it does not weigh heavily on a country scale (especially the large consumer of kWh France ...)

Did67 wrote:So, yes ... We can always say! As long as we do not talk finance!

One certainty: at the end of the end (even if it is probably postponed for political reasons), it will be the consumer who will pay; if not, it would be EdF who would be bankrupt, then bought by I do not know who (the Chinese?), which would apply a massive increase to make profitable the purchase ...


Electricity EDF has almost doubled since 2008: energies-fossil-Nuclear / Explosive-of-kwh-EDF-for-2008-compare-the-price-t15003.html No need for Chinese to get it up!

It may be interesting to observe the Belgian example of Electrabel which has been sold to Suez / Engie for years ...
0 x
Do a image search or an text search - Netiquette of forum - Support the forum doing Useful shopping
User avatar
Did67
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 20362
Registration: 20/01/08, 16:34
Location: Alsace
x 8682

Re: EDF is struggling to get through the winter




by Did67 » 07/11/16, 11:52

For Switzerland, do not forget the particular topography, which translates into its ability to produce hydroelectricity.

http://www.bfe.admin.ch/themen/00490/00 ... ml?lang=fr

But what I wanted to emphasize is that for a given production, they could either consume and export the occasional surpluses. But the strategy of the Swiss groups is more refined:

- they sell as much as possible when the spot price is high, turbulently

- they buy a part when the price is low and then close the taps ...

This makes it possible to increase considerably the average selling price: the electricity bought at a price X on the spot market in green period can be resold 5 X in red period.

[Interview with a Swiss Green Member]

Note that with its nuclear reactors (when they walk), EdF does, unintentionally, the opposite: sell surplus in green period (by technical inability to stop the reactors) and buy sometimes in red period, during peaks of consumption!

Mechanically, the average price imposed in France by the regulatory authority under government pressure is not sustainable!
0 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 74055
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 8738

Re: EDF is struggling to get through the winter




by Christophe » 08/11/16, 14:40

Another analysis of Echos: France is really likely to be in the dark this winter

http://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/cer ... 040818.php

We said that for Belgium also in 2014: energies-fossil-nuclear / shortage-of-electricity-in-belgium-blackout-expected-this-winter-t13433.html

Some precautions had been taken "just in case" ... but nothing serious had happened!
0 x
Do a image search or an text search - Netiquette of forum - Support the forum doing Useful shopping
moinsdewatt
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 5111
Registration: 28/09/09, 17:35
Location: Isére
x 553

Re: EDF is struggling to get through the winter




by moinsdewatt » 08/11/16, 17:39

Six RTE weapons to avoid a shortage of electricity this winter

Ludovic Dupin Usine Nouvelle on 08/11/2016

In case of extreme cold, the electricity supply of France could be tight. This is why, the electric transport network (RTE) plans to resort to exceptional means.

Winter could be electrically tense. The low availability of the French electricity fleet, and the nuclear fleet in particular, gives RTE (Electric Transport Network) fear of a more difficult supply / demand balance. "This winter is placed under strong vigilance. Certain days in winter, at certain times of the day, we could be required to mobilize exceptional resources", explains François Brottes, president of RTE.

The challenge for RTE is to ensure that consumption and production are always balanced. Otherwise, the network can be damaged, which would cause massive power cuts. France, with its massively electric heating, is sensitive to thermal variations. A drop of 1 ° C leads to a need for an additional 2400MW, the equivalent of the City of Paris or two nuclear reactors. RTE needs an available and reactive electricity network to deal with it.

An electric park little available

However, the generation fleet is 11 MW lower this year compared to the winter of 300-2015. 10 MW of nuclear power are already lacking due to the nuclear outage shutdowns requested by the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN), which will run until the end of January. The thermal park (coal and gas) saw the closure of 000 MW of capacity. Wind and photovoltaics could make up for a small part of this deficit with an additional 1 MW. However, wind power only produces energy 900% of the time in winter. As for solar, its production reaches 30% at 40 p.m. but it is 13% at 0 p.m., an hour which corresponds to peak consumption in France, the most critical moment for the network.

To mitigate any risk of blackout, RTE has six levels of graduated responses. The first two solutions are in common use throughout the year:

1 - Use of interconnections : France has interconnections with England (2000MW), Belgium and Germany (5000MW), Switzerland (1100MW), Italy (2000MW) and Spain (2200 MW). The theoretical maximum makes it possible to import 12 MW, or 200 MW more than a year ago. In fact, in the event of a cold spell over Europe, France should be able to import 3000 to 7 MW from abroad. Neighboring countries are generally less sensitive to cold, their heating using gas massively (which causes other tensions).

2 - Call to delete : These are industrial or individual consumers who will voluntarily, at the request of the network operator, temporarily reduce their consumption. The available standby reaches 3150 MW for this winter, which is roughly stable compared to a year ago


The following four solutions fall within the framework of the exceptional measures mentioned by François Brottes. They are applied gradually as needed.

3 - Activation of the interruptible : It involves 21 industrialists who consume a great deal in the aluminum and steel sector, for example. They are able to cut their consumption in less than 5 seconds. These actors were recruited by a call for tenders from RTE. Together, they can reduce requirements up to 1500 MW instantly.

4 - Call for citizen action : From December 5, RTE will launch "Eco2mix Alert", a new device through its Eco2Mix smartphone application. These are messages that alert users to upcoming consumption peaks and call on them to take eco-friendly actions such as postponing the use of certain devices (washing machine, dryer, etc.), lowering the heating a little, turn off lights in unoccupied rooms, etc. At RTE, it is estimated that, depending on the mobilization, this device can represent from 1000 to 5000 MW.

5 - Reduction in electrical voltage on distribution networks by 5% : This leads to a decrease in the efficiency and yield of certain electrical devices but without cutting any use. Apply to the whole territory, it is possible to save up to 4000MW, almost the consumption of Paris and Marseille combined.

6 - Carry out scheduled load shedding : This is the ultimate weapon and the last that RTE will apply. These are controlled cuts of electricity in certain areas of the network. A customer cannot be cut for more than two hours, which is why RTE is planning rotating load shedding. "It would take temperatures 6 to 10 ° C lower than seasonal norms for RTE to be forced to perform load shedding", explains Clotilde Levillain, deputy general manager of RTE.


In view of these different scenarios studied, RTE predicts that in the event of a cold winter with -5 ° C below seasonal norms, the peak consumption could reach 97MW. For the record, the consumption record was reached in France on February 000, 8 with 2012GW. Winter 102,1-2015, marked by very mild temperatures, reached a modest peak of 2016 GW.


http://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/si ... er.N461237
0 x


 


  • Similar topics
    Replies
    views
    Last message

Go back to "Fossil energies: oil, gas, coal and nuclear electricity (fission and fusion)"

Who is online ?

Users browsing this forum : No registered users and 123 guests