The largest source of primary energy, coal

[moinsdewatt]

China's demand for coal will start to decline from 2025 (report)

Ecofin agency. August 23, 2019

According to a report by CNPC, a Chinese state-owned think tank, demand for coal from the Middle Kingdom will peak in 2025 before starting to decline. The research firm predicts an 18% drop in total consumption in the country between 2018 and 2035 and 39% between 2018 and 2050.

"With the gradual decline in demand for coal in China, global coal consumption is expected to peak within 10 years. Meanwhile, demand for coal from China, which currently accounts for half of the world's total, will drop to around 35% by 2050, "said the report, according to details relayed by Reuters.

Despite its strategy to reduce its consumption of coal and replace it with cleaner energy like natural gas and renewable energies, the Middle Kingdom continued to approve the development of new coal mines and power plants. Although the share of coal in its energy mix fell to 59% last year (against 68,5% in 2012), overall consumption increased by 3% to 3,82 billion tonnes year on year.

However, CNPC researchers predict that the share of coal in the mix will continue on its downward slope, dropping to 40,5% by 2035. Indeed, they explain, the production capacity of renewable, nuclear and the country's natural gas continues to increase rapidly.

China is the world's largest consumer of coal and the largest emitter of greenhouse gases.

https://www.agenceecofin.com/charbon/23 ... 25-rapport

[moinsdewatt]

The Chinese have built a long, $ 30 billion rail link to transport coal from the northern provinces to the center. To transport 200 million tonnes of coal per year!

China Railways close to completion on $ 30bn coal freight line

By DANIEL BRIGHTMORE. Sep 23, 2019,

China Railways is close to completing the world's longest heavy freight line to haul coal from China's northern mines to its eastern and central provinces.

Almost a decade in the making, the nearly $ 30bn Haoji Railway will start around the end of this month and eventually haul as much as 200 million tonnes from key producing regions in the north to consumers in the south, reports Bloomberg.

That's more than Japan uses in a year and could cut China's domestic seaborne coal trade by 10% in the long run, Fenwei Energy Information Services Co. forecasts.

“Coal will remain a dominant source of power in the next 10 years, even though it's being gradually replaced by new energy,” said Tian Miao, an analyst at Everbright Sun Hung Kai Co. in Beijing.

One of the main reasons for building the nearly 2,000km (1,243-mile) long railway is to ease transportation bottlenecks in the domestic supply chain. China is rich in coal - with its resource concentrated in the northern provinces of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi - but the distribution is uneven.

https://www.constructionglobal.com/infr ... eight-line

The cost seems high, but in 25 years they will transport 5 billion tonnes, which represents 6 dollars of investment per tonne transported. It does it.

[moinsdewatt]

The IEA forecasts that coal demand will stagnate until 2023.

Coal demand will remain steady through 2023, International Energy Agency says

Posted by SDD Contributor on November 22, 2019

Coal consumption is expanding after two years of decline, but miners should brace for another period of sluggish growth, according to the International Energy Agency.

In its latest annual report, the IEA forecasts global coal demand will remain essentially stable over the next five years, inching up by just over 1 percent between 2017 and 2023. The reason for coal's stagnation remains unchanged from recent years: Developed nations are ditching the fossil fuel, while India and other emerging economies are turning to coal to quickly scale up electric power generation.

“In a growing number of countries, the elimination of coal-fired generation is a key climate policy goal. In others, coal remains the preferred source of electricity and is seen as abundant and affordable, ”said the IEA, a Paris-based agency that advises developed nations on energy policy.

The IEA's forecast comes on the heels of a series of reports that the world is falling short of commitments to prevent catastrophic impacts from climate change and running out of time to take action. Burning coal for electric power and industrial purposes such as steelmaking is a major contributor to global warming.

https://stockdailydish.com/coal-demand- ... ency-says/

[moinsdewatt]

The international coal market in declining volumes according to Moody and EIA.

US thermal, met coal outlook negative on weak pricing and dropping demand: Moody's

in Commodity News 24/01/2020

Moody's Investor Services issued a negative outlook for US coal markets, driven by weak coal pricing in thermal and met markets, in addition to dropping domestic and export demand.

“Coal pricing remains weak in early 2020, with no clear catalyst for improvement during the year after export thermal coal prices fell sharply in 2019,” Benjamin Nelson, lead analyst, wrote. “Coal producers, which increased thermal coal exports significantly in 2017 and 2018, responded by attempting to place more volumes in the domestic market, which depressed thermal coal pricing.”

According to Moody's, while pricing for met coal looks more favorable than thermal, the met market is also likely to be weak in 2020, adding more constraints to cash flow and EBITDA generation.

“There is a greater risk for the High-Vol A market, where proceeding with recently-announced projects could worsen the effects of price weakness,” the report said. “We expect some projects will be delayed.”

PROJECTED DEMAND
Moody's projects coal demand will drop to 550 million st this year, the lowest level since early 1970s. The US Energy Information Administration, it noted, also forecast coal demand to drop 14% to 597 million st in 2020.

“Domestic thermal coal volumes face an environment of contracting demand from coal-fired power plants, which account for most demand, cutting consumption by more than half over the last decade,” Moody's said. “Weak export pricing makes it uneconomical to export a significant percentage of the coal that producers have exported previously, leading to a meaningful decline in exports in 2019 that will intensify in 2020.”
........

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/us ... nd-moodys/

[moinsdewatt]

The tazus had produced 2016 TWh of electricity from coal in 2007.
It fell to less than half at 966 TWh in 2019!

US Coal-Fired Power Plants Just Had Their Worst Year Since the 1970s
Natural gas, nuclear, wind, and solar sources had their best years of electrical output ever.

February 29, 2020

In 2007, the US generated a record amount of electricity from coal-fired power plants at an estimated 2,016 terawatt-hours, according to data compiled by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Last year, the nation's fleet generated an estimated 966 terawatt-hours. That's less than half the all-time peak from just 12 years ago and the lowest output since the late 1970s.

The overnight abandonment of coal-fired power plants has created an opportunity for other power sources to gain market share while decarbonizing the country's power sector. In 2019, the United States generated record amounts of electricity from each natural gas, nuclear, wind, and solar.

Here's what the latest numbers from the country's ongoing energy transition mean for investors.

........

Read https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/02/ ... st-ye.aspx

[Bardal]

This is not bad news!

The only thing that upsets me is that Trump will suddenly appear as the champion of the fight against GHG emissions ... A little strong anyway ...

[moinsdewatt]

New York State's last coal-fired power plant, 675 MW of power, closes on March 31, 2020.
It has been operating since 1983.

New York's last coal-burning power plant closes on Lake Ontario shore

By Thomas J. Prohaska




New York State's coal-burning era will end Tuesday, when Somerset Operating Co. officially retires its power plant on the shore of Lake Ontario in Niagara County.

It means the share of the state's power generation coming from coal will fall to zero.

“We were the last coal-fired plant in New York State,” plant manager Brian Gregson said Monday.

The 675-megawatt plant, opened by New York State Electric & Gas Corp. in 1983, last generated electricity on March 13, when it burned off the last of its coal. The process ended at 12:02 am March 14.

The plant sat idle more than it ran in recent years. It has been at least five years since the plant operated without interruption for as long as a month, Gregson said.
..............

https://buffalonews.com/2020/03/30/new- ... e-ontario/

Well, right now with covid19 that's not what will make the headlines.

[moinsdewatt]

World coal production could grow by half a percent in 2020. Despite the Covid19.
Very slight decrease in China, sharp increase in India.

Coal Production On The Rise Despite Coronavirus Crisis

Global coal production is expected to grow only marginally in 2020, from 8.13 billion tonnes in 2019 to 8.17 billion tonnes in 2020, a growth of only 0.5 percent after three consecutive yearly increases, due to the disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic, says GlobalData. The spreading coronavirus pandemic may too heavy of a burden for the already struggling coal miners in the United States, with three companies announcing operations halts due to measures to contain the spread of the disease.

Now, according to the analytics company, disruption has been most significant in China. Coal production declined by around 6 percent in the first two months of 2020 as workers could not return to mine sites due to the coronavirus outbreak.

However, by March 4, 83 percent of China's coal mining capacity was operational and production is now expected to recover over the remainder of 2020 with a forecast decline of only 1.2 percent expected by the year-end.

Thermal coal production is expected to grow by 0.5 percent to 7.05 billion tons, while metallurgical coal production is forecast to be flat at 1.1 billion tons.

Over the next four years, the production of thermal coal is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.9 percent to reach 7.6 billion tonnes by 2023, due to increasing demand from India and China.

“Across the globe, compared with other commodities coal production is only expected to be marginally affected by the impact of the coronavirus as thermal coal mines are permitted to operate during lockdowns as they are deemed essential to maintain power supplies,” says Vinneth Bajaj, senior mining analyst at GlobalData.


China's overall annual coal consumption is expected to decline by 0.5 percent, due to the lockdown of industrial areas with thermal coal consumption falling by around 0.3 percent in 2020.

Through to 1 March 2020, Chinese coal-fired power plants reported a 3 percent decline in their coal consumption, with an 8 percent decline in the country's power generation during the first two months of 2020.

In India, around 845 million tonnes of coal is expected to be produced in 2020 - an 8.3 percent increase compared to 2019.

Elsewhere, thermal coal mines in South Africa have been permitted to operate despite the country's 21-day lockdown.

“Longer term, whilst power demand is growing, we will see coal declining as a proportion of the power generated. At present, 67 percent and 75 percent of the electricity in China and India is generated from coal, ”Vinneth adds.

“However, both counties have environmental commitments to reduce carbon emissions, and have targeted to reduce these shares to 58.5 percent and 50 percent by 2030 respectively.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/Coal-P ... risis.html

[sicetaitsimple]

World coal production could grow by half a percent in 2020. Despite the Covid19.
Very slight decrease in China, sharp increase in India.l

I really don't believe in it very much and not even at all. It will more than likely be a significant setback. China even if it leaves today will not find all its customers immediately, and India is in my opinion, even if already confined, on the eve of a major explosion of cases and consequently a fall in the economic activity. I hope I am wrong, but hey .... We will see
Moreover, on the side of the coal importing countries, especially in Europe, there it will be really a severe collapse.

[moinsdewatt]

Austria shuts down last coal-fired power plant

AFP published on Apr. 17, 2020

Austria closed its latest coal-fired power plant on Friday, as planned, a symbolic step for the country, which aims to produce 100% electricity from renewable sources by 2030.

The thermal power station located in the south of the country, in Mellach, supplied the district heating network of the neighboring city of Graz since the end of the 1980s. Its operator, the Verbund group, the country's main electricity supplier, hailed the end of "the era of carbon-based electricity production in Austria". The Minister for Climate Protection, Leonore Gewessler (Greens), hailed "a new step towards the gradual elimination of fossil fuels", the environmental association Global 2000 speaking of a "historic day".

Other thermal power plants in the country have closed over the past fifteen years. The share of the Mellach power plant in the Austrian mix was marginal, while the electricity produced in the country is three-quarters of renewable origin, mainly from hydro and biomass. The will of the coalition government between the Conservatives and the Greens is to achieve 100% green electricity production by 2030, a goal already included in the climate plan of previous governments.

The ruling coalition has set itself the more ambitious objective of completely decarbonizing the national economy by 2040. By that date, all supplies will have to be from renewable sources, compared to 33% currently, Austria consuming some 67% of fossil fuels mainly from imports (coal 8,3%, oil 35,6%, natural gas 22,4%).

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... bon-200417