Electricity shortage (in Belgium), blackout or power cuts planned for this winter

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by sen-no-sen » 09/12/17, 19:44

bardal wrote:
- It seems unreasonable to hope that heavy road transport can switch significantly towards electric propulsion, mainly for reasons of radius of action. We are already content with local trips (more than 95% of trips by French), including the 40 km daily VI, urban and suburban public transport, heavy transport short haul, captive fleets etc ...


Not if we equip the main roads and highways with catenary systems and increase the tonnage of heavy vehicles from 42 tonnes to 60 tonnes as had been requested a few years ago.
It is indeed not very serious to consider battery tractors, on the other hand electro-diesel engines (as on TER) would be a particularly effective solution on the eve of the "peak all oil".

It would give this:
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Re: Electricity shortage in Belgium, expected blackout this winter




by Bardal » 09/12/17, 20:26

No doubt, but equipping motorways and main roads with a catenary network is a long and heavy investment; It can only be in the medium and long term anyway. Already, equipping cities with a "trolley-bus" type network would be very interesting for urban and suburban transport, as well as for various heavy local transport (supplying towns, household waste collection, etc.). ); but it is already a very important task.

On the other hand, Tesla style heavy transport, I tend not to believe it ...

I deliberately left aside all the technical aspects (which do not save anything on the question of the energy to be produced), but the imagination can gain power: for urban buses, the flywheels can be interesting , or mixed vehicles (network + batteries) for the sub-urban, "organized" carpooling for daily trips, "robot" vehicles for residential areas ... etc ... etc

But the fundamental question is that of "all electric" as an alternative to "almost all hydrocarbon", and obviously that of the production of electricity ... but I am certain: we will not go towards less electricity ... we have little choice ...
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Re: Electricity shortage in Belgium, expected blackout this winter




by sen-no-sen » 09/12/17, 20:46

bardal wrote:No doubt, but equipping motorways and main roads with a network of catenaries e is a long and heavy investment; it can only be in the medium and long term anyway.


It is quite distressing to note the inertia of public and private policies in this area, such a scenario must be effectively thought out and budgeted in advance ... except it is late, the peak it's tomorrow (2018/2025)!
Electrified the entire car fleet (train, truck, private vehicle and companies) will not require astronomical means of production, in particular by using off-peak hours wisely.
From memory it is something like 20 EPR of 1,6 GW that it would take to electrify the entire car fleet, which in terms of current oil consumption is much more efficient (2X more).

On the other hand, Tesla style heavy transport, I tend not to believe it ...


It is especially a beautiful ecological masquerade, indeed the quantity of batteries necessary to propel a heavy goods vehicle is not acceptable, on the other hand direct electrification is certainly what is most virtuous.
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Re: Electricity shortage in Belgium, expected blackout this winter




by sen-no-sen » 09/12/17, 20:51

I just found the link on the site of Janco:

What final assessment for FULL of cars?

In the transition from the stinky and polluting petroleum vehicle to the electric vehicle which is the friend of butterflies, one last point of detail remains to be seen: what additional capacity of electric production should be provided to electrify the current fleet of land vehicles which are not already (those that already are trains, trams and trolleys, for the most part). For this we will do a little calculation for France:

Current transport consumption is 54 million tonnes of oil equivalent (1 tonne of oil equivalent = 11.600 kWh; see definitions here), i.e., at constant final energy, around 600 TWh (1 Twh = 1 billion kWh).

In this set, around 5 Mtoe go to air and sea transport, so land transport consumes around 50 Mtoe, or about 550 TWh. In this set, private vehicles represent a large half (utilities and trucks the other half).

A car heat engine has an efficiency of around 20% on average on fuel consumed (it is rather 40% for heavy goods vehicles), which means that the mechanical energy that comes out of the engine is equal to 20% of the energy released by the combustion of the fuel, the rest leaving in the form of heat. The electric motor, it has an efficiency of 80% on electricity used (it's the same meaning), but ...
Storage loses around 20% of the electricity produced, while gasoline storage consumes zero as a first approximation,
electricity distribution losses are 8% (from the power station to the low-voltage outlet) for electricity, but rather of the order of 2% to 3% for fuels,
and for an electric vehicle it is necessary to use the battery to supply the auxiliaries (heating in winter, headlights, windshield wipers and defoggers, etc.) whereas for a thermal engine it is given almost free of charge (in particular the heating, which on a vehicle electric in winter can almost double consumption),
in short, the efficiency of the electric chain is 0,8 (motor efficiency) * 0,8 (storage efficiency) * 0,92 (distribution efficiency) * 0,8 (use of auxiliaries) ≈ 50% in total , against 0,2 (engine efficiency) * 1 (storage efficiency) * 0,98 (distribution efficiency) = 0,2 for the heat engine as a first approximation.

the electric chain is therefore 2,5 times more efficient than the "fuel" chain, so it would take a little more 200 TWh electric to electrify all current road vehicles with identical performance (same masses, same powers, same distances traveled). This is roughly half of French electricity consumption (which is around 450 TWh).
If we intend to produce this electricity with nuclear, it is necessary - without taking into account the possible optimization of existing reactors, in particular with the night load, of which I do not know what that can represent - add about 18 EPR (based on 8000 annual hours of production at full power per year and 1,6 GW of installed power per EPR), for an investment cost of around 110 billion (in 2012) and a lifespan of around 60 years. To this must be added the "strengthening of the network", because going from 550 TWh transported to 750 TWh is not done with a constant network. To give a basis for comparison, French GDP is around 2000 billion euros in 2014, and, on the basis of 100 dollars per barrel and 1,3 dollars per euro, the import of oil for fuels truck costs us around 30 billion euros per year,
If we intend to produce this electricity with wind turbines, you have to install about 110 GW of power (based on 2000 annual production hours at full power per year), at a cost of around 150 billion (in 2014) on land, and a lifespan of 20 to 30 years. To this must also be added the "strengthening of the network", and inter-seasonal storage capacities because wind power produces more in winter than in summer. In practice, this cost must be increased by a factor of 3 for the part of the electricity that needs to be stored elsewhere than in car batteries. For example, installing a kW of pumping station, a kind of double dam that serves as a storage system, costs 5000 or 6000 euros per kW installed in France, much more than the wind turbine itself.
If we intend to produce this electricity with photovoltaic solar panels, it is necessary to install approximately 220 GW of power (on the basis of 1000 annual hours of production at full power per year), at a cost of around 400 billion euros (in 2016), and a lifespan of 20 to 30 years. To this must also be added “network strengthening” and intermediate storage capacities, as above.
If we intend to produce this electricity with gas power stations, knowing that the efficiency of these installations is around 50%, then we must import 450 TWh of gas for these power stations, which is just 20% less ... than oil saved !! (and an import cost of around half the cost of imported oil). These plants will emit CO2, certainly less than with oil, but the discount will be "only" by 40%, which will not be enough to divide the emissions by 4 to 5. In addition, 30 GW of plants would have to be installed gas (based on 8000 hours of production per year), at a cost of around 15 billion euros (and a lifespan of 40 years).
Recall that European gas comes 60% from the North Sea, which has passed its peak in production, and 20% from Russia, which should not significantly increase its exports to Europe (the "growth reserves" in Russia are located in eastern Siberia, and they will probably go ... to the Chinese).
If we intend to produce this electricity with coal plants, knowing that the efficiency of these installations is around 40%, then we would have to import 550 TWh of coal - around 70 million tonnes of coal - per year for these plants , and an import cost of around 6 billion euros per year. It would then be necessary to install 30 GW of coal-fired power plants (on the basis of 8000 hours of production per year), at a cost of around 45 billion euros (and a lifespan of 40 years). And in such cases the CO2 emissions due to mobility would increase by 50%!


https://jancovici.com/transition-energetique/transports/la-voiture-electrique-est-elle-la-solution-aux-problemes-de-pollution-automobile/
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Re: Electricity shortage in Belgium, expected blackout this winter




by Bardal » 10/12/17, 04:30

I had never read this text by Janco. What reassures me a little about my rough calculations is that we fall back on the same orders of magnitude, given the differences in starting hypotheses.

One point seems particularly interesting to me: if the investment proposed by Jancovici may seem significant (€ 110 billion, to which would be added the strengthening of the network - probably a few tens of billion € -), the savings made on hydrocarbon imports (around 25 billion / year) allows an ROI of a few years, 6 or 7 with a ladle ... Eh, eh, the exit of CO2 emissions would be an excellent investment in financial terms, in addition to its first objective, one of the best we can do today !!! This is new ...

However, technically, this is not an easy task ... Developing, almost ex nihilo, total electrification of road transport is not the work of choirboys.

Well, these Belgian stories have taken us far from the original subject; I hope they don't freeze them too much ...
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Re: Electricity shortage in Belgium, expected blackout this winter




by Ahmed » 10/12/17, 10:33

Before electrifying the roads for electric trucks, why not start using rail freight again? The piggyback that had given rise to interesting reflections and solutions finally landed in drawers ...; perhaps it is time to reopen them?
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Re: Electricity shortage in Belgium, expected blackout this winter




by sen-no-sen » 10/12/17, 13:02

bardal wrote:One point seems particularly interesting to me: if the investment proposed by Jancovici may seem significant (€ 110 billion, to which would be added the strengthening of the network - probably a few tens of billion € -), the savings made on hydrocarbon imports (around 25 billion / year) allows an ROI of a few years, 6 or 7 with a ladle ... Eh, eh, the exit of CO2 emissions would be an excellent investment in financial terms, in addition to its first objective, one of the best we can do today !!! This is new ...


Absolutely, which means that in this scenario the transition would be cushioned with a positive outcome.
France could therefore become one of the first industrialized nations to reduce its GHG emissions massively and in a short time.
We would then be in a way the (radioactive!) Beacon that lights up the world! : Lol:

Ahmed wrote:Before electrifying the roads for electric trucks, why not start using rail freight again? The piggyback that had given rise to interesting reflections and solutions finally landed in drawers ...; perhaps it is time to reopen them?


Rail freight is certainly a very good idea, but despite many attempts it has been stagnating for almost 40 years.
Despite the opening up to competition, few operators engage in the transport of goods by rail due to a severe lack of flexibility.
By 2020, almost 7500 km of railroads will have disappeared - mainly branch lines - thank you Macron!
Rail transport, sick branch of SNCF

The Court of Auditors alerted the government this summer to the worrying situation of Fret SNCF.

http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2017/09/15/le-transport-ferroviaire-branche-malade-de-la-sncf_5186028_3234.html

From a pragmatic point of view there would therefore be more interest in electrifying the road network, it is absurd I agree ...
By cons interesting point, rail freight is growing between France ... and China!

China-Europe direct rail freight explodes

https://www.tdg.ch/economie/fret-ferroviaire-direct-chineeurope-explose/story/26691651
Last edited by sen-no-sen the 10 / 12 / 17, 13: 31, 1 edited once.
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Re: Electricity shortage in Belgium, expected blackout this winter




by moinsdewatt » 10/12/17, 13:25

Since no one answers, here is what the Belgian press says:

Low risk of power shortages this winter.
However, it is not excluded that strategic reserves will be activated in the event of a cold spell in Western Europe.


the 29 / 11 / 2017

Like last winter, it is very unlikely that Belgium will face electricity shortages in the weeks and months to come, according to winter forecasts for the European electricity market Entso-E on Wednesday. association of European high voltage network managers. However, it is not excluded that the strategic reserves will be activated in the event of a cold wave in Western Europe, combined with low wind and solar production.

The availability of the Belgian and French generation fleet should be better than last winter, notes Elia, manager of the electricity transmission network in Belgium.

A tense situation on the electricity market could however lead to price spikes, she warns. According to the study by the European organization, it is also the second and third weeks of 2018 that will be the most difficult of winter. However, it will take very bad conditions, such as a mercury down to -10 degrees, to enter the danger zone.

http://www.lesoir.be/126855/article/201 ... -cet-hiver
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Re: Re:




by moinsdewatt » 06/01/18, 13:04

Belgium: prolonged shutdown for a nuclear reactor, Electrabel pointed out

AFP published on Jan. 04. 2018

One of the seven nuclear reactors in Belgium, Doel 3, will experience a "prolonged" shutdown due to damage that the operator Electrabel (Engie group) has not sufficiently taken into account, the Federal Agency for nuclear control (AFCN).

"It was found that the operator had not sufficiently carried out its operations to control the degradation of the concrete, nor the repairs that go with it," Sébastien Berg, AFN spokesman, told AFP. . Belgium has four reactors at the Doel site (north) and three at Tihange (east).

The Doel 3 reactor, whose obsolescence is regularly denounced, was shut down at the end of September for scheduled maintenance work. But during the revision, explained Mr. Berg, it was noted "a degradation more advanced than what is allowed by the operating conditions", forcing to "prolong" the shutdown. The Belgian daily Le Soir, which revealed the information, now refers to "a minimum of seven months of inactivity", i.e. a restart expected at the earliest at the end of April 2018.

Steam releases following the shutdown of the reactor would have damaged the "bunker" more than expected, a sort of concrete mega-shell housing the power plant's emergency systems. FANC referred to "the detachment of pieces or cracks in the concrete". "This bunker houses emergency systems such as emergency pumps and diesel generators," Jean-Marc Nollet, head of Ecolo-Groen deputies, explained in a statement.

"The degradation of the concrete detected calls into question the guarantee of operation of these emergency systems, leading to a serious increase in the risk of an external accident", added Mr. Nollet, "Electrabel's liability is overwhelming and its negligence is overwhelming. is matched by its obstinacy in extending a technology as useless as it is dangerous ".

In Belgium, despite the consensus on the obsolescence of power plants, which are sometimes more than 40 years old, the debate is lively between partners of the ruling coalition on the modalities of nuclear exit by 2025. The Flemish nationalists of the N -VA, pillars of the coalition, now want guarantees on the control of the price of electricity in exchange for their support for this commitment from the government led by the French-speaking liberal Charles Michel.

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... t-180104-0
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Re:




by moinsdewatt » 31/08/18, 21:03

The restart of the Belgian Doel 1 and 2 reactors postponed

Published on 31/08/2018 PARIS (Reuters)

Engie postponed until December the restart of reactors 1 and 2 at the Doel nuclear power plant in Belgium, reports the Belgian daily newspaper L'Echo on Friday.

Doel 1 and 2 were to be put back into production on October 1 and 8 respectively after a maintenance period started in April-May.

According to L'Echo, their restart is now scheduled for December 1 and 31, respectively.

Engie could not be reached immediately for comment.

The reactor number 4 of the Doel power plant has been under maintenance since August 6, with a restart scheduled for December 15. Doel 3 is operating normally.

Engie, via its Belgian subsidiary Electrabel, operates seven nuclear reactors in Belgium, four in Doel and three in Tihange, and produces around half of the kingdom's electricity needs.

On the stock market, the Engie share lost 2,70% to 12,64 euros at noon, one of the biggest drops in the CAC 40 index (-1,27%).

In June, Engie had estimated at around 250 million euros the impact on its Ebitda and its recurring net profit of the 2018 financial year of the planned revisions in its Belgian power plants. The group added that it was implementing an action plan to limit these effects.

https://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/l ... se.N735639
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