Brent oil price in current euros from 1990

Oil, gas, coal, nuclear (PWR, EPR, hot fusion, ITER), gas and coal thermal power plants, cogeneration, tri-generation. Peakoil, depletion, economics, technologies and geopolitical strategies. Prices, pollution, economic and social costs ...
C moa
I posted 500 messages!
I posted 500 messages!
posts: 704
Registration: 08/08/08, 09:49
Location: Algiers
x 9




by C moa » 17/11/08, 09:16

Have you noticed how the price of Brent (almost) perfectly follows the dollar / euro parity?

Otherwise, a curve that would be interesting to associate with all this (but I don't know if it's easy to find) is the production carried out with a barrel.
Because crude oil costs more today, but I think that we produce more with the same quantity.

So if we take into account the relative protection of the euro plus the productivity gains achieved over the years, I think we can highlight that our companies are quite competitive against Asia (China in the lead ) and...

They do not tell us everything...
0 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79126
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10974




by Christophe » 17/11/08, 09:39

C moa wrote:Have you noticed how the price of Brent (almost) perfectly follows the dollar / euro parity?


Yes, with a few exceptions (1st Gulf War for example) this is the case ... how to explain it? Perhaps by the fact that when oil is expensive there is less availability of liquidity in dollars? I don't know ... is that all I see as an explanation?

C moa wrote:Otherwise, a curve that would be interesting to associate with all this (but I don't know if it's easy to find) is the production carried out with a barrel.


This one you mean? 8)

Image

Well, it only concerns OPEC (OPEC in english in ze texteuh) but it gives an idea of ​​world production! I never thought that production would have been halved in the early 2's !! Long live the energy savings of the time !! (not hard to do considering where we started from !!)

C moa wrote:Because crude oil costs more today, but I think that we produce more with the same quantity.

So if we take into account the relative protection of the euro plus the productivity gains achieved over the years, I think we can highlight that our companies are quite competitive against Asia (China in the lead ) and...


I think you mean industrial production? So toenergy intensity? Well, I did the math a few months ago and I noticed with a certain "dread" that theIndia, often pointed out as anti-ecological, does better than France, an industrialized country for "centuries" and that France and Euro are at the level of China!!

Image

Calculations here: https://www.econologie.com/forums/petrole-et ... t5022.html

This does not concern the evolution of energy intensity but such a curve is easy to find for France ... it does not progress much but we can see certain "technological developments" such as the Internet revolution. .

C moa wrote:They do not tell us everything...


Well that ... it's not new ...
0 x
C moa
I posted 500 messages!
I posted 500 messages!
posts: 704
Registration: 08/08/08, 09:49
Location: Algiers
x 9




by C moa » 17/11/08, 15:26

Christophe wrote:
C moa wrote:Have you noticed how the price of Brent (almost) perfectly follows the dollar / euro parity?


Yes, with a few exceptions (1st Gulf War for example) this is the case ... how to explain it? Perhaps by the fact that when oil is expensive there is less availability of liquidity in dollars? I don't know ... is that all I see as an explanation?
You should know that many local currencies of producing countries have a fixed exchange rate with the dollar. You should also know that most of these countries are very large importers of raw materials (sugar, wheat, meat, etc.) and manufactured products (cars, planes, textiles, etc.).
So if the dollar is weaker and the barrel stays at the same price, overall, they have less money (others will say purchasing power is in fashion lately. : Mrgreen: ). If the price of the barrel follows the rate of the dollar, they can at least maintain their standard of living.

This one you mean? 8)

Image

Well, it only concerns OPEC (OPEC in english in ze texteuh) but it gives an idea of ​​world production! I never thought that production would have been halved in the early 2's !! Long live the energy savings of the time !! (not hard to do considering where we started from !!)
That's not what I was thinking, but it's still interesting. FYI, with the drop in consumption, there has also been a significant drop in prices. This fall blocked investments in the research of new fields for 15 years and above all maintained a status quo on many subjects (transport for example). The ideal would be to have a slowdown in consumption (for the moment it is only demand that has decreased) with the price being kept high or even very high (to maintain the pressure on the search for sources of savings and give alternative energies a chance).
I think you mean industrial production? So toenergy intensity? Well, I did the math a few months ago and I noticed with a certain "dread" that theIndia, often pointed out as anti-ecological, does better than France, an industrialized country for "centuries" and that France and Euro are at the level of China!!

Be careful not to get trapped because here too, what is missing is the consideration of the exchange rate because do not forget that a few months ago 17 USD this represented barely more than 10 € while 'today it represents around 14 USD (these are orders of magnitude). In addition, emerging countries have largely and deliberately undervalued their currencies to promote exports. So there too easy to boost this ratio.
0 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79126
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10974




by Christophe » 17/11/08, 15:39

C moa wrote:Be careful not to get trapped because here too, what is missing is the consideration of the exchange rate because do not forget that a few months ago 17 USD this represented barely more than 10 € while 'today it represents around 14 USD (these are orders of magnitude). In addition, emerging countries have largely and deliberately undervalued their currencies to promote exports. So there too easy to boost this ratio.


Disagree! An L of oil is an L of oil ... and a $ of GDP is a $ of GDP ...

However, what this graph does not show is wage disparity linked in terms of living standards and (social) charges between our countries and India and China...in other words: to create $ 1 of GDP, the oil / energy share does not intervene in the same way ....

Concrete example, let's take a Parisian taxi and a Hindu taxi (fictitious figures but undoubtedly realistic proportion):

a) in France, a 5 km race in Paris will cost € 20.
Charges (overall) = 13 € including energy = 0.5L of oil.
Added value = Margin = 7 €.

French energy density for this race: 7 / 0.5 = 14 € / Liter of oil!

b) in India, a 5 km race will cost 3 €.
Charges = 0.5 € including energy = 0.5L of oil
Added value = Margin = 2.5 €

Indian energy density for this race: 2.5 / 0.5 = 5 € / Liter of oil!

What do you think? It's all the more to the disadvantage of France, isn't it? I think the explosion of Indian remote computing is one factor that explains this ...
0 x
C moa
I posted 500 messages!
I posted 500 messages!
posts: 704
Registration: 08/08/08, 09:49
Location: Algiers
x 9




by C moa » 17/11/08, 16:16

Christophe wrote:Disagree! An L of oil is an L of oil ... and a $ of GDP is a $ of GDP ...

However, what this graph does not show is wage disparity linked in terms of living standards and (social) charges between our countries and India and China...in other words: to create $ 1 of GDP, the oil / energy share does not intervene in the same way ....
That the part of oil / energy does not intervene in the same way, I agree because depending on whether you have more or less greedy materials you will not produce as much. But it must still be taken into account in this calculation. Just as the disparity of wages and charges must also be taken into account without this this graph does not mean anything. Oil does not turn itself into a building, a doll or a shoe.

What do you think? It's all the more to the disadvantage of France, isn't it?
If, as you think, the change does not intervene then I tell myself that China is off to a bad start and that we are rather well placed to reindustrialize our country.

If today China has the same profitability as us while:
- China uses a lot of labor to produce a lot and at low cost.
- Energy is subsidized by the state and is fixed.
- The average salary in China is around 200 € now and skilled workers can earn up to 550 € (many companies are relocating from China to Vietnam at the moment : Shock: ).
- Transport costs between China and Europe are increasing regularly (fuel prices, availability of boats, etc.).
-....

If they really produce as much as us with these methods, without the exchange intervening, it means that as soon as the Chinese minimum wages pass the 300-400 € or that the prices of transport or raw materials will increase further, they will be less competitive than us and therefore there should be a relocation of industries to Europe : Mrgreen: .

I think the explosion of Indian remote computing is one factor that explains this ...
I think that for IT (like engineering in general) it's a little different because on the one hand the Indians are very well trained, on the other hand what they produce moves easily and at little cost. charge through internet / satellite networks and finally they work a lot for cheap (although this point is less and less true).
0 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79126
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10974




by Christophe » 19/11/08, 00:09

Of course, "machine" yields (machine in the broad sense: ie "production tools") play a role in the energy intensity of a country, but ... given that the second variable is economic: the cost labor (gray labor included) is also involved ... and, according to the example of the taxi above: much more than energy!

When every man will be paid on earth the same for an hour of work, that is to say that the hour which he provided to the community created the same value of GDP for his country then the comparison of energy intensity between countries will mean something ...! Obviously as this may never happen, we must review the concept of energy intensity and maybe take into account the average hourly wage of the country ???

So here are the 2 new curves that I promised you above:

a) Oil price since 1990 in 2007 CURRENT EURO

Image

b) Number of hours of minimum wage (gross) to pay for a barrel of Brent


It is this curve which is the most FUNDAMENTAL and which has the most significance in terms ofimpact of energy on purchasing power!

Image

By comparing this last curve to the evolution of the "stock market" quotation in current $, it appears that the impact of the oil price on our "purchasing power" is much less severe than by analyzing the "gross" quotations. rough (sorry I had to place this one!):

Image

ps: for non-French people, the minimum wage is the minimum wage in France! The difference between the gross and the net is roughly 3/4 (25% social allowance)
0 x
User avatar
Did67
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 20362
Registration: 20/01/08, 16:34
Location: Alsace
x 8685




by Did67 » 19/11/08, 12:56

Christophe wrote:
What do you think? It's all the more to the disadvantage of France, isn't it? I think the explosion of Indian remote computing is one factor that explains this ...


I especially think that when a lot of things are done by hand, by 500 million people, you can have a significant GDP with relatively little oil! Men and zebus in the rice fields, kids recycling household garbage, ...

So India remains (even if this changes) a fairly intense country in "muscle energy", where we have replaced oil energy (tractors, garbage trucks, etc ...).
0 x
User avatar
Capt_Maloche
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 4559
Registration: 29/07/06, 11:14
Location: Ile-de-France
x 42




by Capt_Maloche » 19/11/08, 15:17

I arrive on time :D

Thank you Tof for these beautiful graphics

this is where I would like to come from Did67
it would be necessary to compare the energy supplied by barrel in "slave equivalent", dixit Jancovicci

and there you will be able to notice that, compared to the consumption by individual who has access to it, India does not exploit this energy so well: because this is the difference, not everyone has access to it.

and we know that it is impossible for all Indians to consume oil like the Europeans do now
1 x
"Consumption is similar to a search consolation, a way to fill a growing existential void. With, the key, a lot of frustration and a little guilt, increasing the environmental awareness." (Gérard Mermet)
OUCH, OUILLE, OUCH, AAHH! ^ _ ^
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79126
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10974




by Christophe » 19/11/08, 15:29

You're welcome, Maloche, am here for that!

Did67 wrote:I especially think that when a lot of things are done by hand, by 500 million people


Bigre that makes 500 million wankers? Sorry but could not prevent me it was so well "shot" ...

Otherwise agree with you and this is precisely what I have already said above: we cannot objectively compare the energy intensity of 2 countries where average salaries and technologies (these 2 concepts are linked) are not similar!
0 x
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79126
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10974

Re: Brent oil prices in current euros since 1990




by Christophe » 08/06/22, 09:07

Who wants to update to version 2022? 8)
0 x

 


  • Similar topics
    Replies
    views
    Last message

Go back to "Fossil energies: oil, gas, coal and nuclear electricity (fission and fusion)"

Who is online ?

Users browsing this forum : No registered users and 295 guests