Bonjour à tous
Replying to Exxon's report on the future of energy (last email), especially the future of oil production, Olivier Rech, who worked on the scenarios oil tankers from the International Energy Agency (IEA) from 2006 to 2009. He left the IEA and now advises investment funds. According to him, global production has already reached a plateau at 82 million barrels per day (Mb / d), since 2005, and will start to decline after 2015. Production will never reach the 95 Mb / d and higher planned by the IEA. See: http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/12/ ... -lenergie/
Shell Chairman Peter Voser also shook Wall Street's walls when he told the Financial Times last September (21 September 2011):
"Existing field production declines by 5% a year as reserves are depleted, so the world would need to add the equivalent of four Saudi Arabia (sic) or ten North Seas in the ten next few years just to maintain supply at its current level, even before any increase in demand. "
See: http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/09/ ... ci-a-2020/
So, one wonders what it really is. Do the oil companies have the advantage of dangling disaster scenarios? We could say yes a priori, to raise prices. But in doing so they are pushing governments and auto companies to push alternative technologies faster (electrification of transport), which goes against their interests, and explain that Exxon wants to calm the game with "ultra optimistic" forecasts. ".
One thing is certain, the faster you get rid of oil and the better.
Sincerely
Pierre Langlois, Ph.D.
Interview of the world: http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2011/12/ ... -lenergie/
The oil will decline shortly after 2015, according to a former expert of the International Energy Agency
Olivier Rech developed the oil scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) for three years, until 2009. He currently advises large investment funds on behalf of La Française AM, a Parisian asset manager.
His predictions on the future of world oil production are today much more pessimistic than those published by the IEA ...
Olivier Rech, head of oil issues at 2006's International Energy Agency at 2009.
What are your forecasts ? Let's start with the producer countries outside OPEC [which represent 58% of extractions and 23% of world reserves].
Outside OPEC, things are clear: on 40 million barrels per day (Mb / d) of conventional oil extracted from existing fields, we are facing an annual decline of the order of 1 to 2 Mb / d.
In your opinion, are we therefore close to the decline of 5% per year of the existing production mentioned by Shell?
Yes, that's about it.
And for the production of OPEC countries [42% of extractions and 77% of world reserves]?
It's harder to say, the data is still opaque, we stay in the fog. I note, however, that the Barclays and Goldman Sachs banks believe that OPEC's unused production capacity, particularly that of Saudi Arabia, is much smaller than what is officially announced.
Many new production projects are currently under development. What to expect
Indeed, there are new projects off Brazil, Ghana and Guyana. The Gulf of Mexico is still far from exhausted. The Arctic is more uncertain, but there is real potential for natural gas. However, it will take another decade to see a significant output, possibly oil.
So the peak and the decline in world oil production is when, in your opinion?
It is always difficult to advance a specific date. The recovery rates of existing fields are increasing. In the United States, production on land is declining very slowly (it must be said that they are drilling like crazy there). It is a mistake to underestimate the know-how of drilling engineers.
Given all these factors that can delay a decline, what is your conclusion?
We will certainly remain below the 95 Mb / d for all conventional and unconventional oils.
So you're a lot more alarmist than the IEA and Total, the most pessimistic of the oil companies, who talks about the possibility of keeping production on a plateau around 95 Mb / d up to 2030.
That's right. The production is already on a plateau since 2005, around 82 Mb / d. It seems to me impossible to go much further. Since the demand, it, should continue to rise (except, perhaps, if the crisis is gaining the emerging economies), I expect to see the first tensions by 2013-2015.
After that ?
Then, in my opinion, it will be a decline in production over the 2015 period at 2020. A decline not necessarily fast elsewhere, but a decline, it seems clear.
You say "not necessarily fast". Why ?
Everything will depend on the pace at which non-conventional oil chains will be able to develop. The conversion of coal and natural gas into liquid fuel will remain infinitesimal. For first generation biofuels, I think we are already close to the maximum limit. As for the second generation, we are still at the stage of industrial pilots. To achieve a significant worldwide production, 2,5 Mb / d put, it will take another quarter of a century.
All this will be insufficient to offset the decline of existing conventional oil fields, do you think?
Insufficient, yes.
But why it must always be ex, retired, old ... who speak (with frankness?)?