Spent oil PeakOil 2005, 2015 depletion?

Oil, gas, coal, nuclear (PWR, EPR, hot fusion, ITER), gas and coal thermal power plants, cogeneration, tri-generation. Peakoil, depletion, economics, technologies and geopolitical strategies. Prices, pollution, economic and social costs ...
moinsdewatt
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 5111
Registration: 28/09/09, 17:35
Location: Isére
x 554




by moinsdewatt » 03/10/14, 16:06

At "only" 733 billion euros, oil investments are slowing

UsineNouvelle on October 03, 2014

Due to delays and additional costs on their major projects, the oil majors are easing off on their investments. Also, if the sector has been investing more and more since 2010, the growth in spending will slow slightly between 2013 and 2014.

As every year, the French Institute for Petroleum New Energy (IFPEN) publishes its report on the state of investments in exploration-production and refining. In 2014, the world of petroleum faced strong political instabilities in producing areas (Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, Russia…) which had the effect of reducing the availability of petroleum resources by 2,5 million barrels per day. Despite these tensions, the price of a barrel is down, having lost 17% of its value since June. Olivier Appert, President of IFPEN, judges that a price of $ 100 per barrel is possible in the long term.

SLOWING BUT RECORD

In terms of investments, the oil companies are easing off. In 2014, exploration-production expenses reached 733 billion euros, up only 5% compared to 2012. A slight increase when since 2010, growth was 11% per year. This slowdown is due to the majors, like Total, which reassess their spending. This is reflected in the oil discoveries. Between January and September 2014, only 155 discoveries of oil and / or gas fields were listed in the world against 172 in 2012 and 177 in 2013.

The cost of new projects has soared while several projects have fallen behind, very negative factors for margins. The majors thus reduced their investments by almost 8% over the period 2013-2014, while large national companies and small independent players (particularly in shale gas in North America) remained more active. Despite this slowdown, investments in 2015, up 4%, will reach 762 billion, an absolute record.

REFINING OVERCAPACITIES IN EUROPE AND CHINA

One of the first sectors affected by this slowdown is the geophysics sector. After a record turnover of more than 16 billion dollars in 2013, orders collapsed by 20% in 2014. The situation is all the worse since many modern seismic acquisition vessels, ordered there several years, arrive on the market and create overcapacity. The geophysical companies compensate for this lack of activity by financing campaigns' equity, sold retrospectively to customers.

Refining, for its part, is in a unique situation. Between 2013 and 2014, investments jumped $ 12 billion to reach $ 82 billion. This growth is driven by three drivers: the construction of refineries in emerging countries, a modernization of Russian refining and the development of downstream oil in the United States thanks to shale gas. Yet at the same time, the world is experiencing gigantic overcapacity. There is 1,2 million barrels per day of excess capacity today and this could reach 3,2 million in 2022. Two markets are concerned. The first is Europe, where the drop in oil demand and the petrol / diesel imbalance are putting industrial facilities at risk. The second is China, where the slowdown in growth is affecting the potential of new refineries.

THE FRENCH AIR CONDITIONER IN SHAPE

For its part, the French oil and gas industry is doing well, if we are to believe the results of the annual study of the Groupement des entreprises parapétrolière (GEP). The sector generated 39 billion in turnover in 2013, an increase of 12% compared to 2012. It is 90% realized by 35 large companies whose turnover exceeds 200 million euros. The sector now employs 65 people, compared to 000 in 60. Turnover is achieved on average at 000% from exports.


http://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/a- ... nt.N288499
0 x
RégsB
I understand econologic
I understand econologic
posts: 67
Registration: 26/04/14, 13:33




by RégsB » 03/11/14, 13:02

Hello,

Depletion: I don't believe in it anymore ...

http://www.techniques-ingenieur.fr/actu ... le_286277/

When I talk about petroleum, I think mainly of transport, the blood of the current economy.

There are so many possibilities to make hydrocarbons that I'm sick of it : Cry: (see figure 2)
0 x
User avatar
sen-no-sen
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 6856
Registration: 11/06/09, 13:08
Location: High Beaujolais.
x 749




by sen-no-sen » 03/11/14, 13:48

RégsB wrote:Hello,

Depletion: I don't believe in it anymore ...

http://www.techniques-ingenieur.fr/actu ... le_286277/


The depletion is a fact, it occurred as planned in the years 2005/2008 and it is not unrelated to the subprime crisis.
Now if we take into account unconventional oils, we only postpone the deadline by a few decades, that is to say nothing in terms of geological time ...

This is an article that serves only to reassure investors, he notes this:

When in France cautious and incompetent, it has set itself, by law, a de facto ban on prospecting for these resources. And yet, its net imports of natural gas represented, according to French Customs, over 12 months at the end of April 2014, the plump sum of 14 billion euros. The integration of this external expenditure within the economy of our country in would certainly increase wealth, although Sioux precautions and some local restrictions should imperatively be implemented to protect our environment.


Pure propaganda!
This kind of article is very clear:when there are none left there are still, even if it means destroying all the ecosystems on the planet ...

It is certain that if we take into account the absolute reserves of hydrocarbons, there is still what to do, but at what price?
What is the cost of the consequences of such a scenario?


Image

Yellow: the cumulative quantities of oil extracted and consumed on the day of publication since the 1100th century, of the order of 75 billion barrels, (based on 27 million barrels / day, annual consumption of crude oil is around 1200 billion barrels per year). These cumulative consumptions should be discounted around the XNUMX billion barrels today.
Rose: low-cost reserves still exploitable in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
Red: the other exploitable reserves of conventional oil in the world,
Pale blue: progress in extraction by injecting CO2 which thins the oil (EOR: "enhanced oil reserve"). One of the future paths, economically acceptable, of carbon dioxide trapping, made profitable by the increase in the rate of oil extraction.
Blue: deep and ultra-deep water reserves.
Yellow: classic EOR, recoverable by water injection.
Pink : estimated Arctic reserves.
Orange-red : heavy oils and oil sands
Orange: shale oils, including a portion of the shale gas condensates used today.
Parma: the conversion of part of the natural gas reserves into liquids by the Fisher Tropsch process (GTL) or another variant (MTG) by the methanol route.
Brownish brown: the conversion of a part of coal into liquids (CTL) either by the Fischer Tropsch process whose historic leader, since the middle of the XXth century, is the South African Sasol, or by a variant, developed by Mobil, and which uses the methanol intermediate (MTG or “methanol to gasoline).


The best for the end:


On the scale of geological times this difference between 2000 billion and 4000 or 5000 billion barrels is of course negligible. But it will push back the inexorable production plateau of a few decades(1) (2000 billion barrels more mobilizable at the current rate of extractions of 100 billion barrels every four years represent in 40 years of additional respite before seeing the cumulative extractions reach half of the estimated ultimate reserves), which will give the world economy enough time to seriously adapt to the new energy constraints which will be essentially financial(2), by making it possible to set up gradually and on a large scale the production of biofuels from biomass and the synthesis of refined products from natural gas, coal enriched with biomass and other lignites or CO2.


Translation:
(1) In other words, deteriorating the conditions necessary for the maintenance of life on earth in order only to retreat by a few decades (SIC!) The inevitable end of the petroleum hegemony ...

(2) .... Time to find other solutions to permanently destroy ecosystems!

It is very clear that the solutions presented here have no long-term interests other than to reassure investors and politicians in their interested apathy.
0 x
"Engineering is sometimes about knowing when to stop" Charles De Gaulle.
RégsB
I understand econologic
I understand econologic
posts: 67
Registration: 26/04/14, 13:33




by RégsB » 04/11/14, 08:37

I agree with all the points you notice sen-no-sen (apart from the hit of the subprimes).
The conventional oil peackoil has certainly already taken place.
The graph also talks about ultimate reserves, which are therefore not fully exploitable, but when we see what is still possible with gas and coal, for example, despite relatively high production costs, the future of the seems to me to be strongly compromised : Cry:
Costs are high, but remain consistent with industrial operations : Evil:
0 x
User avatar
sen-no-sen
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 6856
Registration: 11/06/09, 13:08
Location: High Beaujolais.
x 749




by sen-no-sen » 04/11/14, 11:54

RégsB wrote:I agree with all the points you notice sen-no-sen (apart from the hit of the subprimes).


However, it was the peak in oil in 2006-2008 that blew up the real estate speculative bubble:

Image



The expression "third oil shock" is used by certain journalists, specialists and politicians to designate an increase in prices exceeding all historical records in the first half of 2008, and which started between 2003 and 2005 according to observers. Between September 2003 and June 2008, the world economy witnessed a quintupling of oil prices in constant dollars, price increase which accelerated in the first half of 2008 by doubling in one year. The historic record price of a barrel of oil in constant dollars of 103,76 dollars of April 1980 which dated from the second oil shock was beaten on March 3, 2008. The rise of the prices continued until reaching a peak record $ 144,27 in New York on July 2, 2008 and to exceed $ 145 in Asia on July 3.


http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troisi%C3%A8me_choc_p%C3%A9trolier

Image
The subprime crisis started in the second half 2006 with the crash of subprime mortgages in the United States, which borrowers, often of modest means, were no longer able to repay. Revealed in February 2007 by the announcement of significant provisions passed by the HSBC bank, it turned into an open crisis when the periodic auctions did not find takers in July 2007.

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crise_des_subprimes

We must not confuse the snow (subprime), the shock (peak oil) and the avalanche ("crisis").

I present this very telling graph on the state of petroleum resources despite the complementation of unconventional sources:

Image
Simulation of the world production of liquids from 1870 to 2100. The vertical line locates 2010. With this simulation, the historical maximum of production is around 2020. This date, with a few years, is now fairly widely shared among " technicians "of the oil sector (the clearly more optimistic forecasts are generally the result of simple tendential extensions of the past, without any other form of in-depth study!), on the other hand the debate remains animated on the height of the peak and the speed of the decline after the maximum.

However, the discrepancies between forecasts are due more to the greater or lesser efficiency granted to assisted recovery in the future and to the speed of development of extra-heavy and other CTLs and agrofuels than to the hope of major new discoveries in oil fields, which nobody counts on.

Source: "Transport energy futures: long-term oil supply trends and projections", Australian Government, Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government, Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), Canberra (Australia), 2009 .

http://www.manicore.com/documentation/petrole/pic_futur_petrole.html

According to this graph we can expect a new "crisis" in the current 2016/2022...
0 x
"Engineering is sometimes about knowing when to stop" Charles De Gaulle.
RégsB
I understand econologic
I understand econologic
posts: 67
Registration: 26/04/14, 13:33




by RégsB » 05/11/14, 10:07

Yes, a graph of oil production that is well-known and which is consensus (or almost).
Conventional or unconventional oil will not last much longer!
I just wanted to emphasize that pollution from hydrocarbons used for transport may well last much longer.
The production of liquefied gas and liquefied coal will take over and we will set off again for a round of pollution galore : Evil:
0 x
User avatar
sen-no-sen
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 6856
Registration: 11/06/09, 13:08
Location: High Beaujolais.
x 749




by sen-no-sen » 05/11/14, 11:02

RégsB wrote:The production of liquefied gas and liquefied coal will take over and we will set off again for a round of pollution galore : Evil:


The current doctrine is based on a negation of reality, all means are good to keep the economy afloat, even though it puts outrageously endangering the biosphere and therefore, by extension, the economy in danger itself!
0 x
"Engineering is sometimes about knowing when to stop" Charles De Gaulle.
User avatar
yannko
Éconologue good!
Éconologue good!
posts: 286
Registration: 24/11/08, 22:44
Location: Prague, Czech Republic
x 2




by yannko » 05/11/14, 11:54

Citro, I think Macro remains objective, but I don't think it's fair to say that it is misinformation and that it likes NOx and particles, it still makes a lot of effort between the HVB, his next lithium conversion, his ball burner, etc ..., I think he could not care as 90% of the population and ride a V8 TDI with everything he slammed in his cars.

You also have a very solid experience and a very honorable approach (investment as much financial as temporal), however you must remain tolerant and objective.

I place myself between you two, unfortunately I find myself, this year, in the situation where the VE no longer shows much interest, because I resumed public transport, and suddenly I use the 106 electric once or two a week maximum, and smoking once or twice a month, so it calls a lot into question ...

The biggest concerns of my rating, since the terminals are paid, the financial interest (which remained the only valid face to the rest unfortunately) is disappearing, the constraints are rising quickly (difficult to find an outlet, and the kWh gets really expensive).

I like the 106, and I do everything to promote its use rather than smoking (in the city), but I realize that when I chat with various people, even being open-minded, it is difficult to counter-argue about their mode of use of transport, according to their needs (apart from the classic cliche Porsche Cayenne diesel in the city center ...).

I am the first to disgust, but I have to face it, my EV is not used "much" in the immediate future.

Edit: bad subject, sorry :?
0 x
User avatar
simplino
I understand econologic
I understand econologic
posts: 143
Registration: 22/11/15, 18:28




by simplino » 22/01/16, 14:34

some have stuck in their predictions:

The world is drowning in oil

http://fr.express.live/2016/01/22/37344/

the world is upside Dizzy:

Too much oil to the point of not being able to store :

Negative interest rates

too much money :

Image
0 x
User avatar
Remundo
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 15992
Registration: 15/10/07, 16:05
Location: Clermont Ferrand
x 5188

Re: PeakOil tanker switched to 2005, depletion in 2015?




by Remundo » 31/01/18, 12:27

Sycamore Videos of February 2018

Understand peak oil and the myth of exponential growth.
http://sycomoreen.free.fr/syco_francais ... html#video

Also the global map of global warming from 1880 to the present day, developed by NASA
http://sycomoreen.free.fr/syco_annonces ... l#01022018
0 x
Image

 


  • Similar topics
    Replies
    views
    Last message

Go back to "Fossil energies: oil, gas, coal and nuclear electricity (fission and fusion)"

Who is online ?

Users browsing this forum : No registered users and 220 guests