Spent oil PeakOil 2005, 2015 depletion?

[FPLM]

Yes.
And the gas race has already revealed its weaknesses: exploration and exploitation of drilling in the Arctic Ocean (the guys are happy that the ice has melted there!), Europe's almost total dependence on Russia for the gas (me, it doesn't tempt me more than that), deterioration of still intact natural areas (shale gas, oil sands, etc.), more ferocious martial chessboard for the theft of resources by force, etc.
In Europe, we should seriously consider the alternatives in favor of our autonomy because we no longer have enough coal (and so much the better) and the only oil zone (in the Channel) is dry (and so much the better) of gas as oil.
In view of the report initiating this thread, the speed at which these resources are used and the slowness of setting up less energy-consuming alternatives, I do not find this scenario so excessive. Obviously, the world is waiting for the last drop of oil before reacting rather than starting to do without it ... drop by drop.

[sen-no-sen]

If the approach is a bit excessive and virtual (stopping the oil overnight), the oil dependence highlighted is all too real ...

@+

A major conflict between Iran and Israel could very well trigger this kind of oil crisis, since almost 30% of world oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz ...

[the middle]

Hello,
I found a rather interesting text on peak oil.
Maybe already mentioned.
http://www.notre-planete.info/actualite ... rolier.php

[Remundo]

for the next 30 years, the crossing of peak-oil induces a structural decrease (I insist, structural and not cyclical) of the production of hydrocarbon of the order of 4% per year.

For example, over 10 years, and if the economic-industrial activity remains essentially based on hydrocarbons, it will decrease by 1 / (1.04) ^ 10 = 1.48

Over 30 years, it is 3,24.

This means broadly on a 20-year scale: 2 times less wages, and at the same time, 2 times less energy to boost growth.

This is how it would be urgent now to make every effort to reach factor 4, in order to plan it rather than suffer it.

[Did67]

I agree, but a little more pessimistic:

1) on "essential" products (for those whose demand is not "elastic", in economic terms), the price differences are much greater than the quantity differences (eg food: 5% less production and the prices can be multiplied by 2 or 3) ...

Basically, grains have doubled and tripled in the past two years ...

2) Oil is also food, with our agriculture model (see my post on the bioethanol thread): our agricultural model has replaced petroleum energy with solar energy. In simplified terms:

a) before the war:

The earth + the sun produced the biomass, which nourished the family and the valets, the horses, the eats of draft ... The surplus was sold. We heated ourselves with wood (forests, hedges, which we also used for tools ... (with a little iron)

The system was based, from an energy point of view, 100% on solar. The food of the rural world (aut, -consomation) and the urban world (surpluses of the precedent) was 100% of the solar in bars.

b) today

3% of farmers, who thanks to mechanization (petroleum energy) and fertilizers (= gas energy in particular for nitrogen; ore for the others), produce food for the rest.

I do not know exactly the energy "balance" of the system, but the ladle, when you eat 2 calories, 1 is of "fossil hydrocarbons" origin and 1 really solar (it is perhaps closer to 3 calories = 2 solar + 1 hydrocarbons?) ...

So we can imagine the impact of the "oil peak" on our food (or our famine?).

Everyone thinks of diesel to go to work! But what about going to work on a half-empty stomach?

[moinsdewatt]

Mathieu Auzanneau's article on his blog, interview with Michael Kumhof who is co-responsible for modeling within the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Peak Oil: Alert by IMF Expert [interview]

[sen-no-sen]

Peak oil did not take into account unconventional oils, or the gigantic discoveries of the Orinoco basin (Venezuela) which are now considered to be the world's largest reserves of crude oil before Saudi Arabia.

In addition, many countries (the USA in the lead) will use shale gas, ensuring them years of "rab".
The current policy is therefore clear, the use of fossil resources will be done to the last drop, and renewable energies will only be there to offset the decrease in supply and serve as an ecological screen.

[dirk pitt]

Peak oil did not take into account unconventional oils, or the gigantic discoveries of the Orinoco basin (Venezuela) which are now considered to be the world's largest reserves of crude oil before Saudi Arabia.

In addition, many countries (the USA in the lead) will use shale gas, ensuring them years of "rab".
The current policy is therefore clear, the use of fossil resources will be done to the last drop, and renewable energies will only be there to offset the decrease in supply and serve as an ecological screen.

the reserves of the Orinoco do not change much at peak oil, on the one hand because they will enter very slowly in production because of the technical difficulties, and on the other hand because the recoverable part of these reserves estimated at less than 20% of the total represents approximately 230 to 280 billion barrels. not negligible but at the current rate of around 85Mb / d, this only gives (already not so badly) 7 to 8 years of additional global consumption.

[moinsdewatt]

Peak oil did not take into account unconventional oils, or the gigantic discoveries of the Orinoco basin (Venezuela) which are now considered to be the world's largest reserves of crude oil before Saudi Arabia.
.....

Unfortunately, Venezuela has difficulty mounting its production even though they have enormous reserves of heavy oils from the Orinoco.

see the Venezuela crude oil production graph here: http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?c ... production

and +1 to Dirk Pitt.

[sen-no-sen]

the reserves of the Orinoco do not change much at peak oil, on the one hand because they will enter very slowly in production because of the technical difficulties, and on the other hand because the recoverable part of these reserves estimated at less than 20% of the total represents approximately 230 to 280 billion barrels. not negligible but at the current rate of around 85Mb / d, this only gives (already not so badly) 7 to 8 years of additional global consumption.

If we put end to end the reserves of the Orinoco plus the large quantities of unconventional oil (great depths + oil shale) we postpone the deadline by ten years.
Instead of having a Gaussian curve we will have a gently sloping plateau ... the time to develop the exploitation of shale gas and to screw up the water tables of the world.
Of course on a historical scale, I agree with your opinion that does not change much!