Peak Oil Now; Peak Coal 2-5 years; Peak Gas 20 - 50 years

[Remundo]

Hello Econologists,

concerning this subject, I propose you the conference of Tad Patzek, Petroleum geoengineer
for the Environmental and Energy Study Institute


Summary of conclusions (translated from English)

* Global production reaches now its peak for oil, will reach it in 2 to 5 year-oldss for coal, and in 20 to 50 year-olds for gas

* There is Verry much of fossil fuels (the "resource") lying everywhere on earth

* The size of the "resource" (by analogy with the balance of a bank account) is mistakenly confused with the rythme technically possible extraction (by analogy with the limited flow of an ATM)

* Few people understand the daily limit always more restrictive that Nature imposes on the cash dispenser (oil and gas deposits, or coal mines)

* and even fewer people understand the great minimum balances (technically inaccessible resources) imposed in all hydrocarbon deposits.

* economists, businessmen or politicians generally have an understanding low of the functioning of the banks

* they know what should be the sampling (the request but in general have no idea what the actual withdrawal of money can be (theoffers energy)

* The deposits offshore et unconventional will produce a growing share of the oil supply

* Solar energy in the broad sense (photovoltaic, wind, biofuels) will impose particularly radical changes in our way of life

* From a thermodynamic point of view, expanded biofuels on an industrial scale are not to and will damage the most vital terrestrial ecosystems.

[Christophe]

Thank you for remembering that there is not only oil that will run out ...

And we know more or less replace energy resources even if it is more expensive, which is not the case for some other resources.

Helium for example, will be one of the gases that will miss the fastest ...
https://www.econologie.com/forums/bientot-pe ... t9919.html

For metals, see: https://www.econologie.com/forums/ressources ... t6257.html

[Remundo]

quite Christophe,

and helium is involved in the manufacture of solar panels ... but I believe that Megajoule or ITER will manufacture by fusion Deuterium Tritium

[Obamot]

... it is absolutely certain, there will be a "peak" in absolutely all the resources
... the first is solar (oil is also solar, no sun ... no photosynthesis) ...
... the last will be the solar.

[dedeleco]

10000 years ago we were all hunter gatherers and we reached a peak of possibilities for hunter gatherers (not enough to eat for all) that was solved by agriculture and domestication with an explosion of our population in a few millennia !!

Currently the peak is declining steadily, as for the oil announced in 1973 with a total shortage before the year 2000 (justification of French nuclear) and its peak is not reached and with abiotic oil even less!
For coal, the peak is very far and China is wasting coal and heating by CO2, even if C. Allegre is right, will eventually arrive well before the coal peak !!

As for the hunter gatherers, we are still hunters for the fish and the peak for fishing is exceeded and we must forcibly move to the fish farm currently !!!

But we must not see that the black, it is not easy, but we have many more possibilities fast unused than hunter gatherers there are 10000ans who have suffered huge famines!

[Remundo]

Hi Dedeleco,

Very optimistic point of view ... in reality we already reach the limits of the Earth (mining, biological, hydrocarbons).

It is a unique phenomenon where one species completely dominates its planet in terms of resource harvesting. It's mentally confusing, I concede it.

There is no plan B as there is 10 000 years where we did not exploit much and indeed, the margin of maneuver was immense.

What is to be done is the energy transition ENR, develop agriculture (but the margin is not huge) and calm down frankly (conso energy and growth of the population ...)

The frenetic development in hydrocarbons is a "one shot" strategy and not sustainable. The blow started in the XNUMXth century and we burned a good part of the "powder", degrading our environment in the process.

[Christophe]

... the first is solar (oil is also solar, no sun ... no photosynthesis) ...
... the last will be the solar.

You honestly believe that the level of high school students who read your answer will be enough for them to understand?

I do not know if the sun goes through a peak of activity, the size of our sun makes that in the end it will swell and turn into giant red but I'm not sure we can call it a peak .. since it is in the terminal phase, there will be no progressive decreasing curve ...



http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soleil

[perplex]

Slts,

Very optimistic point of view ... in reality we already reach the limits of the Earth (mining, biological, hydrocarbons). .

It is on that presented like that, there is no photo, but the price and the difficulty of extracting, whatever the matter, will obligatorily, to push the research already very well on the systems solar, wind, tide / motor, etc. , a lot of way already in the boxes waiting, not the end but the means,
Other than photovoltaics (the, we are not in the grocery store).
the electric car is fast approaching, etc. we can not deny that nothing is done !

I am not as pessimistic as you, a matter of patience, but I readily admit that it is useful to recall certain evidences.
A link that goes in your direction concerning agriculture and the environment: http://www.laterre.fr/article.php3?id_article=63

It is a unique phenomenon where one species completely dominates its planet in terms of resource harvesting. It's mentally confusing, I concede it. .

Given that we are still far from the space adventure, do you compare with what?

I am looking for a link that gives maximum human capacity on the planet
Courage remundo we will have them!
A ++

[Obamot]

Very optimistic point of view ... in reality we already reach the limits of the Earth (mining, biological, hydrocarbons). .

It is on that presented like that, there is no photo, but the price and the difficulty of extracting, whatever the matter, will obligatorily, to push the research already very well on the systems solar, wind, tide / motor, etc. , a lot of way already in the boxes waiting, not the end but the means,
Other than photovoltaics (the, we are not in the grocery store).
the electric car is fast approaching, etc. we can not deny that nothing is done

... word! We were waiting for you to tell us Luckily you're here!

I am not as pessimistic as you, case of patience, but I readily admit that it is useful to recall certain evidences

Nimportenawak! You really did not understand anything. Do you really think we have time to be "patient", after we had burned much of the hydrocarbon potential of the planet in barely a century? While it took a geological period extending to the birth of the trees to form these reserves? What is "patient" for you? 50ans? In 50 years, the planetary reserves of uranium will be exhausted, after what is attacked? This is the reasoning that comes when we do not want to study and understand the geopolitical, geoeconomic and geostrategic evidence ... What a narrow mind!

It is a unique phenomenon where one species completely dominates its planet in terms of resource harvesting. It's mentally confusing, I concede it. .

Given that we are still far from the space adventure, what are you comparing with?

I am looking for a link that gives maximum human capacity on the planet
Courage remundo we will have them!

It is heartbreaking to discover so much mind-numbing talk. Why need forecasting statistics for such obvious facts, which are already partly proven, it is not just oil: it suffices to see the scarcity of copper, the explosion of demand, and its resulting: the increase in its stock market value, and its corollary: the theft of copper on SNCF lines ... etc. (ditto for many other resources, including rubber) ... on the other hand, we understand better "the why" bewildering of your lack of logic.

[perplex]

To stop suffering, shoot a bullet you miss not be emmer .., it's true that at the sight of what you propose, we are saved!
With your endless blaze pumped into the figaro, it's true that you live in Switzerland already, I wonder what you do there, you're a banker or freelancer, I'll look for the 2.

and let those to whom I address to answer him if he wishes it and goes to play with your newspapers, I know your days are long, stop your diarrhea of ​​words without coherences that gentleman takes for words of mind, should it be in have a.

ask Quovadis what he thinks of it, two morons are on a boat that takes the water! the other ................

A ++