Oil: when there are more, there are still

Oil, gas, coal, nuclear (PWR, EPR, hot fusion, ITER), gas and coal thermal power plants, cogeneration, tri-generation. Peakoil, depletion, economics, technologies and geopolitical strategies. Prices, pollution, economic and social costs ...
ABC2019
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 12927
Registration: 29/12/19, 11:58
x 1008

Re: Oil: when there is more, there is more !!!




by ABC2019 » 05/09/21, 10:24

humus wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:So that's what I was saying, it's completely contradictory with the so-called "BAU" scenario adopted by the IPCC, on which most disaster scenarios are based. We can't have both collapse and continuous growth

To my knowledge, the IPCC uses RCP 8.5 as an upper limit and not as a reference.

the IPCC does not use either, since the scenarios were never said to be predictive or limiting. These are just examples of trajectories among an infinite number of others, that we have no reason to follow in particular, and it is not a lower or an upper bound either.

It is not the IPCC the problem, it is the media hysteria which is around which ended up considering that the worst case scenario retained was that which would happen "if we did nothing", (called BAU), whereas no one had ever said that to begin with.

This is an example of what is claimed to be "the discourse of scientists" and which is in fact a mythological discourse constructed from fantasies.


In RCP 8.5, emissions continue to increase throughout the 21st century. [13] Since AR5 this has been considered highly unlikely, but still possible as the feedbacks are not well understood. [16] RCP8.5, widely regarded as the basis for worst case climate change scenarios, was based on what turned out to be an overestimation of coal production projections. The RCP8.5 scenario can be relatively unlikely, with one report calling it "more and more implausible from year to year". [17] RCP8.5 remains useful for its ability to both track historical cumulative total CO 2 emissions and predict mid-century (and earlier) emissions based on current and reported policies.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Represent ... on_Pathway

yeah blah blah blah, to try to twist to explain why we keep it when more and more people think it is implausible.

The problem is that without this scenario, a lot of catastrophic predictions fail, and that's not good for climate-business ....



ABC2019 wrote: Obviously we can do without them, I say that there is no solution to replace them while keeping a standard of living comparable to that currently, of course.

If you want to go back to the way of life of the first peoples, there is no longer a problem, apart from that of feeding 8 billion human beings of course. But hopefully you'll be in the right group.

The notion of cursor seems to escape you.
You only "reason" on 2 bounds: All or nothing.
Sounds like it suits you somewhere to be so cartoonish and lacking in finesse?


well no, in the end, it will be zero fossils, moreover otherwise I do not see how we would stabilize the CO2. Finally can be just what we can sequester, that is to say nothing for the moment.

You have to land a bit, and look at the figures a bit before talking about it! well it's progress, you've already seen the RCP 8.5 scenario on wikipedia, something that you had obviously never looked at until now .... : roll:
0 x
To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)

Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
User avatar
Remundo
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 15992
Registration: 15/10/07, 16:05
Location: Clermont Ferrand
x 5188

Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by Remundo » 05/09/21, 11:22

for those who are very interested,

I refer to the forum Oleocene
http://www.oleocene.org/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 1#p2291591
where this question of "insufficient" coal reserves according to GillABC2019 has already been debated ...

you can restart the discussion here if you want 20 pages of talk with Gilles. : Lol:

I would point out that in the USA alone, there are 1700 GT coal insured ... and at the world level, it is not crazy to think that we can extract 4000 GT with EROEI> 1.

it is gigantic.

1GT coal after combustion gives roughly 3GT CO2

and the annual CO2 emissions from coal were around 40 GT ...
0 x
Image
ABC2019
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 12927
Registration: 29/12/19, 11:58
x 1008

Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by ABC2019 » 05/09/21, 11:29

Remundo wrote:for those who are very interested,

I refer to the forum Oleocene
http://www.oleocene.org/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 1#p2291591
where this question of "insufficient" coal reserves according to GillABC2019 has already been debated ...

you can restart the discussion here if you want 20 pages of talk with Gilles. : Lol:

I would point out that in the USA alone, there are 1700 GT coal insured ... and at the world level, it is not crazy to think that we can extract 4000 GT with EROEI> 1.

it is gigantic.

1GT coal after combustion gives roughly 3GT CO2

and the annual CO2 emissions from coal were around 40 GT ...


for a worldwide total of 35 GT all fuels combined : roll:

those who think that there are 4000 GT of insured coal are also the same who think that there are 5000 billion barrels of insured oil. Except that it does not correspond to the growth curves currently observed. Now you believe in what you want, faith cannot be discussed ...
0 x
To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)

Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
User avatar
Remundo
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 15992
Registration: 15/10/07, 16:05
Location: Clermont Ferrand
x 5188

Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by Remundo » 05/09/21, 11:40

yes I specify

TOTAL global CO2 emissions: around 40 Gigatonnes

coal is less

but that only reinforces the reasoning I was doing ...
0 x
Image
humus
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 1951
Registration: 20/12/20, 09:55
x 687

Re: Oil: when there is more, there is more !!!




by humus » 05/09/21, 18:49

ABC2019 wrote:
well no, in the end, it will be zero fossils, moreover otherwise I do not see how we would stabilize the CO2. Finally can be just what we can sequester, that is to say nothing for the moment.

Except that today we are not the end of fossils but rather in the middle.
I do not even know why I am answering you, you are not yet going to capture anything about the problem and the potential. : roll:

ABC2019 wrote: you have already seen the RCP 8.5 scenario on wikipedia, something that you had obviously never looked at until now .... : roll:

False and pitiful, like everything else.
Go rot somewhere else if you don't care about the topics.
1 x
ABC2019
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 12927
Registration: 29/12/19, 11:58
x 1008

Re: Oil: when there is more, there is more !!!




by ABC2019 » 05/09/21, 18:53

humus wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:
well no, in the end, it will be zero fossils, moreover otherwise I do not see how we would stabilize the CO2. Finally can be just what we can sequester, that is to say nothing for the moment.

Except that today we are not the end of fossils but rather in the middle.


precisely, this is incompatible with scenario 8.5, which assumes that we still have 3 times more to extract until 2100, and around 6 times more at the end ...

I'm just saying the two are mathematically incompatible, it doesn't go any further.
0 x
To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)

Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
User avatar
GuyGadeboisTheBack
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 14823
Registration: 10/12/20, 20:52
Location: 04
x 4302

Re: Oil: when there is more, there is more !!!




by GuyGadeboisTheBack » 05/09/21, 19:44

ABC2019 wrote:... it does not go further.

Indeed, it even remains in place when it is not regressing. : Mrgreen:
1 x
humus
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 1951
Registration: 20/12/20, 09:55
x 687

Re: Oil: when there is more, there is more !!!




by humus » 05/09/21, 19:46

ABC2019 wrote:
humus wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:
well no, in the end, it will be zero fossils, moreover otherwise I do not see how we would stabilize the CO2. Finally can be just what we can sequester, that is to say nothing for the moment.

Except that today we are not the end of fossils but rather in the middle.


precisely, this is incompatible with scenario 8.5, which assumes that we still have 3 times more to extract until 2100, and around 6 times more at the end ...

I'm just saying the two are mathematically incompatible, it doesn't go any further.

Disgusting...
You will not understand why and will leave in endless discussions, so STOP with you.
2 x
ABC2019
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 12927
Registration: 29/12/19, 11:58
x 1008

Re: Oil: when there is more, there is more !!!




by ABC2019 » 05/09/21, 19:52

humus wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:
humus wrote:Except that today we are not the end of fossils but rather in the middle.


precisely, this is incompatible with scenario 8.5, which assumes that we still have 3 times more to extract until 2100, and around 6 times more at the end ...

I'm just saying the two are mathematically incompatible, it doesn't go any further.

Disgusting...
You will not understand why and will leave in endless discussions, so STOP with you.


ah well, does that make you vomit when we point out that if we are in the middle of fossils, we can not extract 6 times more than now? (i.e. we have gone up to about 150 ppm, it still probably around 150 to produce, but not 1000!)

well my poor ... did you think of consulting?
0 x
To pass for an idiot in the eyes of a fool is a gourmet pleasure. (Georges COURTELINE)

Mééé denies nui went to parties with 200 people and was not even sick moiiiiiii (Guignol des bois)
moinsdewatt
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 5111
Registration: 28/09/09, 17:35
Location: Isére
x 554

Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by moinsdewatt » 06/09/21, 00:00

Côte d'Ivoire announces "major discovery" of oil and natural gas

AFP published on Sep 01, 2021

The Ivory Coast, a modest producer of hydrocarbons, announced on Wednesday the "major discovery" of oil and natural gas off its coasts during an exploratory drilling carried out by the Italian hydrocarbon giant Eni.

"A major discovery of oil in the sedimentary basin of the Ivory Coast has just been made by the Italian company Eni in the CI-101 block, in deep water, operated in consortium with the national company Petroci Holding", indicates in a statement by the Ivorian Minister of Mines and Petroleum, Thomas Camara. "The discovered reserves relate to crude oil and associated natural gas."

"The potential can be roughly estimated at around 1,5 to 2 billion barrels of crude oil on the one hand, and on the other hand at around 1.800 to 2.400 billion cubic feet of associated gas," Mr. Camara, reporting "an important discovery which would thus greatly increase the proven reserves of Côte d'Ivoire, as well as its oil and gas production in the years to come".

Côte d'Ivoire signed contracts in 2019 with the Italian Eni and the French Total, for the exploration of four oil blocks corresponding to an investment of 185 million dollars.

The production of oil in Côte d'Ivoire, which recorded in 2019 an increase of 12% to reach more than 36.000 barrels per day, comes from drilling wells located mainly offshore, near the border with Ghana.

Côte d'Ivoire, a modest producer, revised its petroleum code in 2015 to attract new investors, thanks to production sharing contracts.

The country has 51 identified fields including 4 in production, 26 in exploration and 21 still free or under negotiation.

In 2014, the French group Total had mentioned a "very promising result" about its research in very deep waters off the Ivory Coast.

In addition to Total and Eni, several international companies, in particular the British Tullow Oil, have announced important discoveries in recent years.

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... rel-210901
0 x

 


  • Similar topics
    Replies
    views
    Last message

Go back to "Fossil energies: oil, gas, coal and nuclear electricity (fission and fusion)"

Who is online ?

Users browsing this forum : No registered users and 252 guests