OPEC revises its forecast for global crude oil consumption in 2020
AFP published on Jan 15, 2020
OPEC revised upwards its forecast for global crude oil demand this year on Wednesday, thanks to more optimistic economic growth prospects, while believing that countries outside the cartel will also produce more.
The organization of the oil exporting countries now thinks that demand growth will reach 1,22 million barrels per day (Mb / d) this year compared to 2019, i.e. an upward revision of 0,14 Mb / d. Global crude demand should therefore drop from 99,77 Mb / d in 2019 to 100,98 Mb / d in 2020, according to the monthly report of the organization based in Vienna.
This change "essentially reflects an improved economic outlook for 2020," she explains. Global economic growth should therefore accelerate to 3,1% this year (+0,1 point compared to the previous forecast), after 3,0% last year.
"The low interest rate environment should support economic growth," says OPEC. “Additional support could perhaps come from some countries with ample fiscal leeway, which can borrow at low rates - and sometimes at negative rates - to finance infrastructure projects, which should support demand for the economy. oil".
On the supply side, OPEC also revised its estimate of growth in non-OPEC production this year up 0,18 Mb / d to take into account higher activity than expected in certain countries ( Norway, Mexico, Guyana). Growth should therefore reach 2,35 Mb / d, for a production of 66,68 Mb / d.
OPEC countries and their allies, including Russia, have pledged to cut production to support prices. The partners committed themselves on December 6 in Vienna to further limit their extractions.
This collaboration "remains essential to maintain the stability of the oil market," said OPEC on Wednesday.
In December 2019, total OPEC crude oil production dropped by 161 barrels per day from November, reaching 000 Mb / d, according to secondary (indirect) sources cited in the report. The main contributor to the decline was Saudi Arabia, the cartel's largest producer and leader, whose production declined by 29,444 barrels per day in December.
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