Oil: when there are more, there are still

Oil, gas, coal, nuclear (PWR, EPR, hot fusion, ITER), gas and coal thermal power plants, cogeneration, tri-generation. Peakoil, depletion, economics, technologies and geopolitical strategies. Prices, pollution, economic and social costs ...
izentrop
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by izentrop » 21/06/19, 17:18

The goal of the system is to make the pleasure last, but the card house is becoming more and more fragile. Finance will always seek to ensure that the price at the pump remains in reasonable proportions and we will prefer to puncture elsewhere so that growth always has a semblance of existence ... the income of shareholders and senior officials depends on it :frown:

It's from my hat but all the indicators are red. The longer we wait to really act, the harder the fall will be.

It is true that in the short term, not really to worry about the cars, in addition, Trump gave up his punitive expedition to Iran. https://www.lafinancepourtous.com/2019/ ... lle-caler/
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by sicetaitsimple » 21/06/19, 17:52

nico239 wrote:At what price per liter of fuel does the company "stop" operating "as before"?
(It is easy to understand, for example, that at 5 € a liter there is a problem.)
This is the question to be answered.
If someone finds docs on it I'm interested.


I have no answer, but an observation that perhaps goes a little against your reasoning "economic depletion faster than physical depletion".
Today petrol or diesel (crude oil extracted, transported, refined, distributed) it's worth duty free at the pump about the same price
than branded Evian or Vittel water in your supermarket, about 0,6 to 0,7 € / l. In short, excluding taxes, it's really cheap compared to what's inside!
In other words, the level of taxation can act as a shock absorber in the event of a boom in crude prices. Getting it up gradually in these "reasonable" lesson times was a good idea from my point of view, but hey .....
In any case, we will have to wean ourselves off oil as much as possible and in this area, I don't think that going backwards is better jumping.
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Adrien (ex-nico239)
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by Adrien (ex-nico239) » 22/06/19, 00:30

izentrop wrote:The goal of the system is to make the pleasure last, but the card house is becoming more and more fragile. Finance will always seek to ensure that the price at the pump remains in reasonable proportions and we will prefer to puncture elsewhere so that growth always has a semblance of existence ... the income of shareholders and senior officials depends on it :frown:

It's from my hat but all the indicators are red. The longer we wait to really act, the harder the fall will be.

It is true that in the short term, not really to worry about the cars, in addition, Trump gave up his punitive expedition to Iran. https://www.lafinancepourtous.com/2019/ ... lle-caler/


Even worry with a nuclear war the world will get away with it. : Mrgreen:

So it's not the end of oil that will mark the end of humanity.

For this it will be necessary to wait for the end of the sun ....
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Adrien (ex-nico239)
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by Adrien (ex-nico239) » 22/06/19, 00:31

sicetaitsimple wrote:
nico239 wrote:At what price per liter of fuel does the company "stop" operating "as before"?
(It is easy to understand, for example, that at 5 € a liter there is a problem.)
This is the question to be answered.
If someone finds docs on it I'm interested.


I have no answer, but an observation that perhaps goes a little against your reasoning "economic depletion faster than physical depletion".
Today petrol or diesel (crude oil extracted, transported, refined, distributed) it's worth duty free at the pump about the same price
than branded Evian or Vittel water in your supermarket, about 0,6 to 0,7 € / l. In short, excluding taxes, it's really cheap compared to what's inside!
In other words, the level of taxation can act as a shock absorber in the event of a boom in crude prices. Getting it up gradually in these "reasonable" lesson times was a good idea from my point of view, but hey .....
In any case, we will have to wean ourselves off oil as much as possible and in this area, I don't think that going backwards is better jumping.


Well seen that is why I have always said that the best measure would be to CEILING the price of fuels.
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sicetaitsimple
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by sicetaitsimple » 22/06/19, 09:57

nico239 wrote:Well seen that is why I have always said that the best measure would be to CEILING the price of fuels.


It remains to determine the height of the ceiling. Not sure we agree .....
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by Christophe » 22/06/19, 12:18

sicetaitsimple wrote:In other words, the level of taxation can act as a shock absorber in the event of a boom in crude prices. Getting it up gradually in these "reasonable" lesson times was a good idea from my point of view, but hey .....


Wasn't that the purpose of floating TIPP? From the Jospin government I believe ...

It didn't last long ...

Check done yes it was Jospin: https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... nte-120410

The so-called “floating TIPP” mechanism designates an adjustment of the internal tax on the consumption of energy products (TICPE, formerly called “TIPP” until the end of 2010) according to variations in the price of crude oil. It aims to mitigate increases in fuel prices at the pump. It would be more correct to speak today of "floating TICPE".

TICPE is one of the two taxes (with VAT) due to the State that apply to fuels in France. Its amount differs for each type of petroleum product (1). It is set annually per liter of fuel consumed. TICPE is therefore not directly impacted by changes in crude oil prices, unlike VAT (2) which mechanically follows these changes.

The “floating TICPE” mechanism is to compensate for each variation in VAT (due to a variation in the price of crude oil) by adjusting the TICPE by the same amount. When the price of a barrel increases, the TICPE is thus lowered in order to smooth the rise in fuel prices at the pump for the consumer. When it decreases, the TICPE is increased in order to compensate for the loss of tax revenue for the State.

This mechanism is not currently applied but it was implemented between October 2000 and July 2002 by the Jospin government: the TIPP was modulated when the price of a barrel of Brent fluctuated upwards or downwards by more than 10% (3). The evaluation of the cost of this mechanism is subject to debate. According to a report by the Court of Auditors in 2005, this would have reduced the State's tax revenue by 2,7 billion euros in 22 months and caused a drop in prices at the pump not having exceeded 0,022 € /liter.(4)


A verification table calculation: 2,2 cents saved / L for users and 2,7 billion tax losses in 22 months can lead to consumption, which is 2,7 * 10 ^ 9 / 2,2 * 10 ^ (-2) = 1,23 * 10 ^ 11 L sold over 22 months or 5,6 * 10 ^ 9 L sold per month or 5,6 billion L per month sold at the pump?

Or 67,2 billion L per year.

Gold after https://www.ufip.fr/petrole/chiffres-cles France consumed in 2002 13,1 (petrol) + 29,7 (diesel) Mt = 42,8 Mt or in L with a respective density of 0,74 and 0,8, we obtain 17,7 + 37,1 = 54,8 Billion L

The order of magnitude is the same but it is still missing 12,4 billion L ...

Whose fault is it? The course of false accounts or the UFIP who is cheating? : Mrgreen:
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by Christophe » 22/06/19, 12:20

Like Macron talked about it at the end of 2018: https://www.lesechos.fr/economie-france ... nte-150736 : Mrgreen:
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by sicetaitsimple » 22/06/19, 12:38

Christophe wrote:
sicetaitsimple wrote:In other words, the level of taxation can act as a shock absorber in the event of a boom in crude prices. Getting it up gradually in these "reasonable" lesson times was a good idea from my point of view, but hey .....


Wasn't that the purpose of floating TIPP? From the Jospin government I believe ...
It didn't last long ...


The important thing is to determine the right level of flotation! What I am talking about above is not a poultice for yellow vests, it is a life jacket in the event of a really hard blow.
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by Adrien (ex-nico239) » 23/06/19, 01:17

sicetaitsimple wrote:
nico239 wrote:Well seen that is why I have always said that the best measure would be to CEILING the price of fuels.


It remains to determine the height of the ceiling. Not sure we agree .....


The level would impose itself on the economy .... and at the moment it is not blazing : Mrgreen:
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by moinsdewatt » 08/10/19, 01:48

Continuation of this post from 5 seven 2019 http://www.oleocene.org/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 0#p2287324

The big Johan Sverdrup project goes into service. (North Sea, Norway)

Johan Sverdrup Is On Stream In North Sea

Hart Energy Staff Sat, 10/05/2019

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Equinor and the Johan Sverdrup partnership consisting of Lundin Norway, Petoro, Aker BP and Total, said Oct. 5 production has started from the giant field in the North Sea. The startup comes more than two months ahead of and NOK 40 billion (US $ 43.9 billion) below the original estimates for development and operation.

“Johan Sverdrup coming on stream is a momentous occasion for Equinor, our partners and suppliers,” said Eldar Sætre, president and CEO of Equinor, in a statement. “At peak, this field will account for around one third of all oil production in Norway and deliver very valuable barrels with record low emissions. Johan Sverdrup is expected to generate income from production of more than NOK 1400 billion (US153.9 billion) of which more than NOK 900 billion (US $ 98.9 billion) to the Norwegian state and society. ”

Johan Sverdrup has expected recoverable reserves of 2.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent (Bboe) and the full field can produce up to 660,000 barrels of oil per day (bbl / d) at peak. Powered with electricity from shore, the field has record-low CO2 emissions of well-below 1 kg per barrel.

The breakeven price for the full-field development is less than US $ 20 / bbl. After reaching plateau for the first phase, anticipated during the summer of 2020, expected operating costs are below US $ 2 / bbl. The operator also expects cash flow from operations of around US $ 50 / bbl in 2020, based on a real oil price of US $ 70 / bbl, partly as a result of the phasing of tax payments in the ramp-up phase.


https://www.hartenergy.com/news/johan-s ... sea-183238


3 min video on the progress of the Johan Sverdrup project:

https://lemarin.ouest-france.fr/secteur ... production

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