Oil: when there are more, there are still

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Remundo
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by Remundo » 04/02/18, 12:07

there will always be more ...

the question is elsewhere: when we consume 100 million barrels per day, how long does it last?

currently, “major” discoveries are of the order of a billion barrels, ie 10 days of global supply. You will have noticed that this kind of announcement does not take place every 10 days ...

we have never had so few prospecting discoveries, of the order of 7 billion barrels per year. So for 365 days, we only find 70 days of consumption ...

And in addition, EROEIs are declining, which means that the oil actually available at the end of the chain is even rarer.
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by moinsdewatt » 18/03/18, 13:56

US oil storms the world market

By AFP, published on 18 / 03 / 2018

Thanks to booming oil production, the United States is now exporting its black gold without complex to the world, leading to an overhaul of infrastructure on its territory and reshuffling the cards on the world market.
By currently pumping more than 10 million barrels a day, the country has become the second largest crude producer in the world, behind Russia and ahead of Saudi Arabia. A boom linked to new techniques making it possible to extract shale oil at low cost.

Faced with this explosion, the United States lifted 2015's ban on the export of crude oil in place from 1975. An opportunity immediately seized by American companies: in 2017, they exported an average of 1,1 million barrels per day to 37 countries.

Although Canada remains the number one destination, the United States has nibbled market share in Asia, a region usually considered to be the backbone of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) or Russia, which voluntarily decided last year to limit their production to bring prices up.

China has become their second client.


Imports also fell sharply, falling in 10 years from 10 to 8 million barrels per day.

But even if American production continued to soar, the country will not stop buying crude oil abroad soon.

American refineries, for the most part, are not designed to process shale oil considered to be light.

They were built to refine heavy oil from, for example, Canada, Venezuela or Mexico, which they buy inexpensively, and sell by making a large margin in the process.

"As it takes five to seven years to build a refinery, you cannot change overnight," notes Harry Tchilinguirian, oil markets specialist at BNP Paribas.

In addition, he recalls, American companies believed, until the shale took off around 2010, that the oil would come mainly from the tar sands of Canada and began the construction of pipelines between the two countries. "To make new investments, they have to be sure that their choice will still be good in seven years."

Why also increase refining capacities in the United States, where energy demand is likely to settle in the coming years?

- Golden age -

“The United States cannot become completely independent from foreign oil,” Tchilinguirian observes. “The idea of ​​a + golden age of American energy + championed by Donald Trump is not only to become less dependent. It is also to push the energy industry to project itself into the foreigner, ”he adds.

American companies are therefore building pipelines and terminals to send American black gold to the world.

The most emblematic project is the one currently being carried out at the Oil Port off Louisiana (Loop), the only terminal in the United States capable of accommodating these super-freighters carrying up to 2 million barrels. It was first used in February to export, not import, crude oil.

Further west, on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the port of Corpus Christi plans to dredge its funds to accommodate larger ships.

According to several estimates, the United States could theoretically be able to export 4 to 5 million barrels per day in the medium term.

The next question is which markets can absorb all of this crude.

For John Coleman of the Wood Mackenzie firm, Europe is the most logical destination, at least until 2022. "European refineries are more compatible with American light crude and transport costs are lower."

However, demand may also dry up in the coming years.

The United States, if it can keep the price competitive enough to compensate for the extra time and cost of transportation, could turn to Asia.

All the more so since West Africa and the countries of the Middle East should themselves build more refineries on their territory and thus limit their own exports.

But, remarks Mr. Coleman, "the question of oil infrastructure in the United States remains unresolved, it is the topic of the moment. Even if many investments have been announced, it will undoubtedly need more."


https://www.lexpress.fr/actualites/1/mo ... 93244.html
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dirk pitt
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by dirk pitt » 19/03/18, 16:25

as indicated by Remundo, the overlays in 2017 broke a record. never have we discovered so little oil on 1 a year. some will say that it is because we do not seek much since the price is low.

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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by Adrien (ex-nico239) » 20/03/18, 01:07

Are we (we = the earth) behind the deadline for the end of oil ... I mean late to replace everything we can do with oil at the moment ...

There is the material end of oil: no more drop nowhere

But when will the end of economically viable oil be?

Because if the barrel goes up even at 2? 300 $ for sure we can say that there will never be an end to petroleum but economically it will not be very viable so it's a bit the same at least for everyday life

Diamonds have been around for centuries, but ... at what cost ...

We can also summarize the question to: up to what amount is a tank of gas tolerable? Viable? 100 € 200 € 300 €?
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by dede2002 » 20/03/18, 03:16

nico239 wrote:...

We can also summarize the question to: up to what amount is a tank of gas tolerable? Viable? 100 € 200 € 300 €?


Hello,

In some countries, a full tank of gas is worth more than a month's salary, and there are still traffic jams ...
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by dirk pitt » 20/03/18, 10:11

the problem is the volume available. the price has no direct correlation except for the short term.
we do not go from an available volume equal to what we consumed the day before to ZERO the next day.
it is the misleading effect of the R / P report (reserves / current consumption) which can be wrongly interpreted as X years of reserve.
the reserve gradually decreases. for example, the North Sea, which has passed its peak, produces production down by around 8% per year.
scarcity can induce high prices in the short term which themselves lead to recessions which lower the price, etc.
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by moinsdewatt » 26/08/18, 14:39

Oil discoveries drop

By Armelle Bohineust Posted on 11 / 07 / 2018

The decline is mainly due to the drop in investments by oil companies.


Hydrocarbon discoveries are at their lowest in nearly thirty years. Only 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent were discovered in 2017, or 13% less than the previous year, says the French Petroleum Institute for New Energies (IFPEN), taken up by the newspaper Les Échos. Outside of North America where shale oil has been expanding for a few years, the number of discoveries of conventional hydrocarbons is at "its lowest level since the 1950 years", indicates for its part the American site Energy and Capital.

This decline is mainly due to the drop in investments by oil companies, down from 50% to 60% for three years. After the collapse of oil prices in 2014, most of them cut their exploration and production expenses. Since then, and they are far from having them all revised upwards. Some prefer to buy competitors rather than invest in exploration, which is too uncertain. Especially since "the areas explored are becoming deeper and more complex from a geological point of view," explains IFPEN. And that the discoveries are getting smaller and smaller.


http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2018 ... hutent.php
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by moinsdewatt » 27/10/18, 09:54

Guyana: Total authorized to conduct an oil exploration campaign

AFP 24 Oct 2018

The Total group "has just obtained the prefectural order allowing it to begin its explorations in the territorial waters of Guyana", welcomed Tuesday in a statement the local authority of Guyana (CTG).

"The decree was taken and served on Total", confirmed to AFP the general direction of services of the CTG, merger since December 2015 of the region and the department.

The head of external relations within Total Exploration & Production Guyane Française, the company requesting the opening of mining works, confirmed the signing of this order at the local Guyaweb news site and added that the said order of the prefect would make the subject to publication in the coming days.

Contacted Tuesday afternoon by AFP, the prefecture of Guyana did not follow up.

According to its request, the company Total Exploration & Production Guyane française SAS is initially targeting the drilling of an exploration well in the central part of the Guyane Maritime permit from the end of 2018 to early 2019 and over a period of 4 months.

Five holes have already been drilled between 2012 and 2013 in the South-East part of this permit without being successful.

In the north-western part of the perimeter, "the central zone has never been drilled" noted at the end of September the report of the public inquiry committee relating to this new request for the opening of offshore mining works.

"The studies carried out by Total between 2014 and 2015, integrating all the data collected, make it possible to highlight an interesting exploration potential in the central area of ​​the permit", the commission report recalled.

During this survey, between July 16 and August 23, out of 7.183 opinions, "a record in terms of public inquiry in Guyana" according to the commission, 7.173 opinions were unfavorable to these offshore drilling for 8 opinions not defined and 2 favorable.

The commission of inquiry had issued a favorable opinion on this request for a drilling campaign on September 24 with three recommendations: "to re-activate the Monitoring and Consultation Commission (CSC) on petroleum in Guyana", "to establish a workbook. specific charges on the procedures for discharging sludge into the ocean and the treatment of toxic sludge "and" implementing effective control by the public authority of these discharges and treatment of toxic sludge ".

The CTG, favorable to the work, underlined Tuesday evening that the signing of this decree makes it possible to materialize a partnership agreement with "the oil group which fixes the mobilization of 10 million euros by the latter for the benefit of the local economy" , agreement which was subject to "the authorization of the drilling project".

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... ere-181024
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Re: Oil: when there are more, there are still




by moinsdewatt » 06/11/18, 21:08

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Short-Term Energy Outlook EIA source from 10 Oct 2018: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php
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