Evolution of production and world oil consumption

Oil, gas, coal, nuclear (PWR, EPR, hot fusion, ITER), gas and coal thermal power plants, cogeneration, tri-generation. Peakoil, depletion, economics, technologies and geopolitical strategies. Prices, pollution, economic and social costs ...
moinsdewatt
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Re: Evolution of production and world oil consumption




by moinsdewatt » 21/12/18, 01:27

Petrol Poker Stroke, ARTE Video 58 minutes

the 4 dec. 2018


[Full documentary available until February 02, 2019]

How and why the price of a barrel of crude collapsed between 2014 and 2016, against (almost) all expectations. Between economy and geopolitics, a dizzying investigation into the very closed world of the kings of petroleum to understand the fluctuations in the prices of black gold.

In September 2012, a young French analyst of the oil markets, Alexandre Andlauer, published a shock study announcing the imminent fall in oil prices. A counter-current analysis whereas after the third oil shock, in 2008, which saw the price of the barrel soar to nearly 150 dollars, one agitates more than ever the threat of "peak oil": the depletion of resources , feared since the 1970s. However, from the end of 2013, the world was full of oil, confirming the maverick scenario. In two years, a barrel of crude will lose 70% of its value. Various factors have contributed to this oil "counter-shock", but Jean Crépu reveals the most decisive here: an arm wrestling played in secret, and lost, by Saudi Arabia, followed reluctantly by its partners in the Opep, against their American rival and its shale oil producers. The surge in prices after 2008 has indeed enabled the United States to exploit their immense reserves in this area, the very expensive extraction technology having become accessible ...

A crude world
From the new Texas gold rush, which sees the villas of shale oil workers grow, in the cozy offices of the world's great merchants, between the New York Stock Exchange and the very closed circles of Russian or Saudi power, Jean Crépu traces this formidable game of economic and geopolitical poker like a thriller by opening its wings to us. The third round saw American production in 2018 match that of Riyadh for the first time, while Russia, hitherto an observer, has moved closer to OPEC. But while the crude oil faucet thus seems to be able to flow for a long time yet, the reversal initiated by Norway, which has chosen to use its oil windfall to bet on renewable energies, may foreshadow the future. Because, regardless of Donald Trump, the energy world, under the threat of climate change, has also started to change, and demand for oil could decrease faster than expected.

Gas Poker Stroke | Documentary by Jean Crépu (France, 2018, 59mn)



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A lot of interesting info on the development of shale gas in the USA. (the city of MIDLAND in particular, which I had never heard of before)

on the alliance between Saudi Arabia and Putin
.......

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To have !
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moinsdewatt
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Re: Evolution of production and world oil consumption




by moinsdewatt » 16/02/19, 14:46

Oil boosted by lower OPEC production

AFP 13 Feb. 2019

Oil finished sharply higher on Wednesday, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirmed that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was living up to its promise to cut production, relegating the rise to the background stocks in the United States.

A barrel of Brent North Sea crude for April delivery rose 1,19 dollars or 1,9% to end at 63,61 dollars in London.

In New York, the American barrel (WTI) for the March contract gained 80 cents or 1,5% to close at $ 53,90.

"OPEC did lower production in January, and Saudi Arabia was zealous in keeping with its promises, so those who bet on a scarce supply are happy," summed up Jasper Lawler, analyst at London Capital Group .

The day after the publication of the OPEC monthly report, the IEA published its own data for the month of January on Wednesday.

And according to the organization, world supply fell from 1,4 million barrels per day (mbd) in January to 99,7 mbd.

This decrease is notably due to the implementation of the Vienna agreement between the OPEC countries and their partners, including Russia, which decided in early December to set production targets lower than before.

- Imports at their lowest since 1997 -

The IEA underlines that if Saudi Arabia is zealous, Russia is not respecting its objective for the moment.

The Russian Minister of Energy, Alexandre Novak, has also told Russian agencies that his country will further limit its production in February.

"Add in the US sanctions against Venezuela and suddenly the global supply has less room," Lawler added.

Goldman Sachs analysts warn, however, that abundant US production could cause the market to shift back in the second half.

Some shale producers, whose production is currently struggling to sell due to a lack of transport infrastructure, will benefit from the opening of new pipelines, they said.

Crude prices, however, somewhat limited their progression after the publication of the weekly report of the American Energy Information Agency (EIA) showing an increase in crude stocks to their highest level since November 2017, according to petrol and distilled products (fuel oil and heating gas).

While production remained at a record level of 11,9 million barrels per day, the rate of refineries also slowed considerably due to maintenance work, operating on average at 85,9% of their capacities, against 90,7% the previous week.

Another highlight of the report: US crude imports have dropped to their lowest level since 1997. In addition to persistent fog on the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico slowing boat activity, there have been various elements hampering imports such as sanctions against Venezuela and the will of Saudi Arabia to limit its exports.


https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... pep-190213
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Re: Evolution of production and world oil consumption




by moinsdewatt » 14/04/19, 22:46

Oil: IEA recognizes global demand may be weaker than expected

AFP published the 11 Apr 2019

The International Energy Agency (IEA) maintained its forecast for growth in oil demand on Thursday, despite the slowdown in economic growth, but acknowledged that it was likely to be weaker than expected.

Its estimates of increased demand have been confirmed at 1,3 million barrels per day (Mb / d) and 1,4 Mb / d for 2018 and 2019 respectively, she said in her monthly oil report.

Global demand should therefore pass the symbolic milestone of 100 Mb / d this year, with a forecast of 100,6 Mb / d after 99,2 Mb / d last year.

"We maintain our forecast of 1,4 Mb / d (in 2019) but recognize that there are conflicting signals on the health of the global economy and diverging views on the likely level of oil prices," says the Parisian agency, which advises developed countries on their energy policy.

The IEA admits, however, that "the risks are now down". The economic context is indeed less favorable for demand, with global growth slowing down and forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which have just been lowered for this year.

"Clearly, oil prices at $ 70 a barrel for Brent are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year," the agency also said. Higher prices tend to weigh on demand.

This recent increase in prices follows the decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners, notably Russia, to voluntarily limit their production. OPEC pumped 534 barrels a day less in March, a dramatic drop caused by strong discipline in Saudi Arabia and the plight of Venezuela, according to a report released Wednesday by the cartel.

The IEA recalls that Iran is also subject to American sanctions and that there is now some uncertainty in Libya, currently affected by fighting between the forces of Khalifa Haftar and those of the government of national unity based in Tripoli.

The AIE is generally especially quick to point out all these risks weighing on the supply of black gold. But even though "in recent months the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is also very important," she writes.


https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... evu-190411
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Re: Evolution of production and world oil consumption




by Christophe » 20/03/20, 13:23

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moinsdewatt
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Re: Evolution of production and world oil consumption




by moinsdewatt » 21/03/20, 23:31

Oil Demand To Plunge By 10 Million Barrels Per Day
By Nick Cunningham - Mar 16, 2020 oilprice. Com
.......

Airlines are on track to cut flights by 75 percent for April and May.
Pierre Andurand, who runs oil hedge fund Andurand Capital Management, said that oil demand could fall by 10 million barrels per day (mb / d) for a period of time, a contraction with no historical precedent. Oil trading giant Trafigura agreed on the 10-mb / d demand destruction estimate, and said demand could yet drop further.
........

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... r-Day.html
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Re: Evolution of production and world oil consumption




by ENERC » 23/03/20, 19:46

The price of a barrel of oil in euros: 21.09 €
The Brent oil price in euros: 24.69 €
. Price per liter (1 barrel = 159 liters): 0.132 €

At the level of prices in the 60s (inflation corrected) : Shock:

The bad news is that the mamamouchis will revive the economy with this cheap oil, and that we will take the wall again a few years later. We didn't get out of this mess.
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Christophe
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Re: Evolution of production and world oil consumption




by Christophe » 23/03/20, 22:32

Excellent tool with integrated inflation correction ... where did you find it?

How much was the liter at the pump in the 60s? : Cheesy:
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Re: Evolution of production and world oil consumption




by ENERC » 24/03/20, 08:05

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Re: Evolution of production and world oil consumption




by moinsdewatt » 29/03/20, 20:52

Global demand for oil is likely to fall by 20%

REUTERS • 26 / 03 / 2020

Global demand for oil could drop by 20% due to the proliferation of containment measures, which now affect some three billion people around the world, said the director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday, by calling on Saudi Arabia, the world's leading exporter, to promote market stabilization.

"Today, three billion people in the world are confined. As a result, this year could well see a drop in demand of about 20 million barrels per day according to some," said Fatih Birol , during a teleconference.

Global oil demand was 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019.

Fatih Birol added that despite this expected drop in demand, the overall supply of crude could increase by another three million bpd due to the ongoing price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

"As it chairs the G20 this year, one would expect Saudi Arabia to make a positive contribution to stabilizing world oil markets given its past behavior," he said.

He added that the IEA, which advises OECD countries on energy policy, would present updated and detailed forecasts of demand developments in two weeks when it publishes its monthly report.

He said the fall in demand could quickly lead to saturation of global crude storage capacities and said that the recovery in demand would probably be neither easy nor quick.

https://www.boursorama.com/actualite-ec ... 30981fb834
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Re: Evolution of production and world oil consumption




by Christophe » 29/03/20, 21:15

"risk of" ???? : Shock: : Shock: : Shock:
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