Depletion: oil shortage early in 2015?

Oil, gas, coal, nuclear (PWR, EPR, hot fusion, ITER), gas and coal thermal power plants, cogeneration, tri-generation. Peakoil, depletion, economics, technologies and geopolitical strategies. Prices, pollution, economic and social costs ...
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 79118
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 10973




by Christophe » 08/11/14, 13:38

Price lowered out of the crisis? As bank interest rates ...

It's been a while since the price of oil is based on the "law" of supply and demand ... but has it ever been?
0 x
User avatar
sen-no-sen
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 6856
Registration: 11/06/09, 13:08
Location: High Beaujolais.
x 749




by sen-no-sen » 08/11/14, 13:45

Christophe wrote:Price lowered out of the crisis? As bank interest rates ...

It's been a while since the price of oil is based on the "law" of supply and demand ... but has it ever been?


That's right, the price of oil is not at all based on their real value (ie its value based on the environmental costs and the reality of reserves).
The price of oil is kept artificially low in order to péreniser the maximum the current system.
0 x
"Engineering is sometimes about knowing when to stop" Charles De Gaulle.
bamboo
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 1534
Registration: 19/03/07, 14:46
Location: Breizh




by bamboo » 08/11/14, 17:54

sen-no-sen wrote:The price of oil is kept artificially low in order to péreniser the maximum the current system.

It is not artificial: shale gas has changed the situation.
The United States became independent in terms of gas and oil soon.
The other countries whose revenues depend on oil should lower their rates
0 x
Solar Production + VE + VAE = short cycle electricity
Ahmed
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 12298
Registration: 25/02/08, 18:54
Location: Burgundy
x 2963




by Ahmed » 09/11/14, 08:18

The price of oil fluctuates in part according to the market and also in terms of geopolitics and the dollar interest rates.
Demand is currently very low due to the slowdown of the global economy and particularly China (which is largely outsourced consumption of European and US); next, supply is stable despite the troubles in Iraq and Libya, since oil regions are somewhat concerned.

Gases and US shale oil play a regulatory role: they limit the price to rise in abundant domestically the largest direct consumer and downward since the cost of production is much higher than that of oil conventional.
The latter situation is probably temporary because these resources are very durable, to 5 20 years according to specialists (and benchmarks). It is however sufficient to restart the US economy, in order to prolong the illusion somewhat ...

It should be noted that the situation as it is as described is only a snapshot that has nothing to do with the physical and geological reality, which is that half the available oil were consumed and the decline is underway, regardless of cyclical changes that can happen.
0 x
"Please don't believe what I'm telling you."
User avatar
sen-no-sen
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 6856
Registration: 11/06/09, 13:08
Location: High Beaujolais.
x 749




by sen-no-sen » 09/11/14, 10:48

bamboo wrote:
sen-no-sen wrote:The price of oil is kept artificially low in order to péreniser the maximum the current system.

It is not artificial: shale gas has changed the situation.


the 3 / 4 shale gas (shale gas) announced by the media are not, they are "tight gas"(compact gas) whose extraction is a little less disastrous than its cousin, which allowed a small revival of the American economy, however this will not last very long, two decades in the most optimistic case.
For shale gas "strictly" speaking, most of the gold wells have already reached their peaks, and this resource only survives thanks to the bubble that it has created and that by a pathological extension of the exploitations. can't call it a "game changer" ...


Shale gas: first declines in the US

This is where the boom of shale gas began. This is also the decline seems to begin. Fields Barnett and Haynesville in the southern US state, have passed their peak production, respectively November and December 2011.

The Barnett and Haynesville wells have so far provided nearly half of US shale gas production.

http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/2013/10/01/gaz-de-schiste-premiers-declins-aux-etats-unis/
0 x
"Engineering is sometimes about knowing when to stop" Charles De Gaulle.
bamboo
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 1534
Registration: 19/03/07, 14:46
Location: Breizh




by bamboo » 09/11/14, 12:37

sen-no-sen wrote:it will not last very long, two decades in the most optimistic case.

Who said that prices take into account the long-term? :D
They take advantage now and will see later.
This is what the majority of people
0 x
Solar Production + VE + VAE = short cycle electricity
Ahmed
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 12298
Registration: 25/02/08, 18:54
Location: Burgundy
x 2963




by Ahmed » 10/11/14, 20:35

The illusion to which I alluded above may be very short if one looks at the evolution of the US stock market bubble: since its low of 2009 (after the subprime crisis), it continues go back now and highs.
And this is not the apparent good health of the US economy that justifies, simply liquidity * masses without jobs and massive redemption of action by companies ** that feed the bubble. The point is already much higher than it was at the height of the previous bubble ...

* As I have already mentioned several times the amount of funding is now much too high to find opportunities to reproduce otherwise virtually.
** The companies buy back their own shares to raise prices (see *).
0 x
"Please don't believe what I'm telling you."
User avatar
RV45
I understand econologic
I understand econologic
posts: 89
Registration: 05/03/06, 09:10
Location: 45 Orleans FRANCE
x 1




by RV45 » 11/11/14, 18:21

Since 2010 that this position was created it happened a lot of things.

The price of oil still out of control but very low for the lower $ 80 time.

The IEA forecasts still versatile.
In the spring it was the risk of shortages late in the year 2014 and now the oil consumption decreases with decreasing EU conso and China.

One thing is for factual against Sweden already uses more than 50% renewable energy and they announce that they would use more oil by 2020! which seems difficult to achieve, but they will not be far away. Norway, which products are electricity 105% in hydraulics, the rest they sell in Denmark took strong! And oil producer that already has a market share of 15% of its vehicles in electric vehicles.

The number of countries that spend more and more electric vehicles are becoming more numerous the 1% of market share are for the Island Estonia the Netherlands Norway California. But the more important countries are tipping the US, China, France, UK ... for others it is not yet the case in Germany Southern Europe.

Renewable energies are needed more and more throughout the world and not in a small way.

Even Saudi Arabia announced that it will expand greatly the solar thermal and photovoltaic.

The world changes. The only question for us is we have the means to make this transition?

It is not certain:!:

Countries rich yes.
0 x
moinsdewatt
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 5111
Registration: 28/09/09, 17:35
Location: Isére
x 554




by moinsdewatt » 28/05/15, 21:26

and although the peak oil it will not be 2015.

Oil: still two years of overproduction, according to OPEC

Les Echos | The 28 Mai 2015

The fall in oil prices did not affect the oil boom in North America, says OPEC in a report released Thursday. The demand for crude produced by the cartel should not resume until 2018-2019.

The oil boom in North America is not undermined by the fall in oil prices, says Thursday the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which suggests that the current situation of oversupply could last two years.

In its draft five-year report on the long-term strategy which Reuters has read before the ministerial meeting of 5 June in Vienna - the cartel expect in effect on an increase in crude oil production of non-member countries of the cartel at least until 2017.

The relative weakness of demand should therefore translate into a drop in demand for OPEC crude, estimated at 28,2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2017 against 30 million today. If this scenario is confirmed, the organization will have to arbitrate between two options: reduce its production, which currently stands at around 31 million bpd, or prepare for a lasting period of low prices. "Since June 2014, oil prices have undergone a marked reduction, reaching levels even lower than those of the 2008 crisis, and yet the non-OPEC supply still shows signs of growth," explains the draft report.

The price of a barrel of Brent, which reached 115 dollars in June 2014, then plummeted, weighed down by the rise in American shale oil production and the decision of OPEC, last November, to maintain its production . A decision aimed at preserving the cartel's market share and at lowering North American gold production, whose cost prices are higher than its own. But this strategy failed, shale oil being more resilient than expected. Brent was trading Thursday around 62,75 dollars a barrel, it had fallen under 47 dollars in early January.

Demand, no improvement for the cartel before 2019

“Overall, for non-OPEC fields already in production, even a context of marked low prices will not lead to a drop in production because high-cost producers will always seek to cover part of their operating costs,” notes The report.

He adds that the evolution of technologies for extracting oil and shale gas should allow an overall growth of 6% per year and contribute up to 45% to the growth of energy production by 2035. " global liquid resources are sufficient to cover any foreseeable increase in demand over the next decades, ”OPEC believes.

What about its own outlets? "By 2019, OPEC's crude supply, at 28,7 million bpd, will be even lower than its 2014 level." And demand for cartel oil is only expected to start increasing after 2018-2019, reaching nearly 40 million bpd by 2040.

http://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-servic ... 123154.php
0 x
User avatar
simplino
I understand econologic
I understand econologic
posts: 143
Registration: 22/11/15, 18:28




by simplino » 22/01/16, 14:50

Some were planted in their old predictions of scarcity:

The world is drowning in oil

http://fr.express.live/2016/01/22/37344/

the world is upside Dizzy:

Too much oil to the point of not being able to store :

Negative interest rates

too much money :

Image
0 x

Go back to "Fossil energies: oil, gas, coal and nuclear electricity (fission and fusion)"

Who is online ?

Users browsing this forum : No registered users and 208 guests