World Energy 2030 projection: reminders for dreamers

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Investments in fossil fuels are on the rise

August 20, 2018

As every year, the publication of the World Energy Investment provides an overview of the global investments made in the energy sector.

This annual report, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA), focuses on the major trends in terms of funds invested in the various segments of the energy sector: renewable, nuclear, fossil energy but also electrification of our savings, improved energy efficiency, network balance management, etc.

For several years, this report has highlighted the profound upheavals that have taken place in one of the major sectors of the world economy.

And in particular the growth of investments in renewable resources and the decline in investments in hydrocarbons.

But these historical trends are no longer necessarily valid. This situation is all the more harmful since the global energy transition should rather tend to intensify in order to achieve the objectives set by the international community.

Back on the main teaching points of the IEA report.

Increase in investments in hydrocarbons…

2017 was not a particularly successful year for energy. According to the figures published by the IEA in its latest World Energy Investment, global investment in energy amounted to some 1.800 trillion dollars, all sectors combined.

A significant volume but which however marks a slight decline of 2% compared to 2016 and a third consecutive year of decline.

The energy arm of the OECD deplores a pause in the redirection of investments devoted to the development of clean energy resources.

The share of fossil fuels in investments for energy supply amounted to 59% in 2017: a figure slightly increasing over one year, which represents “a first since 2014”.

Investments in the oil and gas exploration segment increased slightly (2%), thus marking the end of the decline in spending started with the fall in crude prices in 2014.

As modest as it is, this increase unfortunately offsets the environmental benefits from the drop in investment in coal-fired power plants.

… To the detriment of renewable energies
"Even if it is too early to judge, [these data] suggest that fossil fuels will retain a significant role in the years to come," predict the authors of the World Energy Investment. A finding that is hardly optimistic in the context of the fight against global warming.

Especially since the increase in investments in polluting fossil fuels seems to be to the detriment of low-carbon resources such as the nuclear (-44% investment in 2017) and renewable (-7%) sectors.

However, this trend is tempered by the IEA, stressing that the solar energy sector has again broken a record by attracting nearly $ 150 billion.

More generally, the largest share was invested in the electrical energy sector: no less than $ 750 billion was injected into the electricity sector in 2017.

This trend is emerging for the second consecutive year and which illustrates the ongoing electrification of the world economy, in particular through the deployment of renewable energies and the adaptation of electricity networks.

The IEA believes that this trend is visible in the heat production and transport sectors, in which electrification is experiencing exponential growth even if the low volumes do not really create a virtuous impact on oil demand .

“A total of USD 236 billion was invested in energy efficiency in buildings, transport and industry in 2017. However, growth in investment in energy efficiency has been strong in recent years, it has slowed to 3%, in a context where the implementation of the energy efficiency policy and improvements in energy intensity are slowing down ”, specifies the IEA

https://www.lemondedelenergie.com/inves ... 018/08/20/

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Electricity, a boom that will require adaptations (IEA)


AFP 13 November 2018

Electricity demand will explode, particularly in developing countries, a positive trend for the environment thanks to the growth of renewable energies but which will require major adaptation efforts, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) ).

"The electricity sector is undergoing its most spectacular transformation since its creation over a century ago," said the IEA, which devotes part of its annual report to the global energy outlook. , unveiled Tuesday.

In a scenario that takes into account the commitments of the various countries and the technological developments underway, the institution expects growth of more than 25% of total energy demand by 2040, driven in particular by India .

In particular, global demand for electricity must jump by 60% and reach almost a quarter of final demand (against 19% today) for energy by this time, at the expense of coal and oil.

Almost 90% of the growth in electricity demand comes from developing countries, with the explosion in demand for electric cars in China but also for air conditioning in hot countries. In rich countries, demand is growing but modestly, in particular with policies designed to encourage the electrification of mobility.

Among the sources of electricity production, wind and solar photovoltaics are expected to experience the strongest growth. All renewable energies (including hydroelectricity) represent 70% of the increase in production capacity.

This is explained by political support and technological development, which leads to a sharp drop in costs. In particular, the latter must fall by more than 40% in solar energy by 2040.

By this time, the share of coal in electricity production should have dropped to around a quarter, compared with 40% today. Renewables for their part would have an exactly opposite destiny, taking the place of coal, which is very polluting.

The respective shares of gas (20%) and nuclear (10%) are expected to remain more or less stable.

- flexibility -

The explosion of renewables results in environmental benefits but also poses challenges, underlines the IEA. These energies are indeed intermittent by nature because they depend on the sun and the wind.

"With greater variability in supply, electrical systems will have to make flexibility the basis of future electricity markets to keep the lights on," warns the IEA.

"Many countries in Europe but also Mexico, India and China will need a level of flexibility that has never existed before on such a scale," insists the report.

The IEA advances a series of avenues: market reform, investment in the network and interconnections, technological improvements with smart meters and battery storage ...

The latter will thus play an increasingly important role with the reduction of its costs, even if the flexibility of the system should always be mainly ensured by conventional power stations.

The IEA also sets out a scenario called "the future is electric" and imagining a much more proactive development of the uses of electricity for mobility and heating, as well as a much faster progression of access around the world .

Electricity demand would then increase by 90% (instead of 60%) by 2040, an additional level equivalent to twice the current electricity demand of the United States.

With half the fleet of cars turned electric, the benefits would be felt locally in terms of air quality, says the IEA.

"But this would have a negligible effect on carbon dioxide emissions without greater efforts to increase the share of renewables and low carbon sources of electricity": otherwise the problem may simply be shifted upstream, she said. keep.

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... aie-181113

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BP forecasts:

Energy demand will increase by a third by 2040

AFP 14 Feb. 2019

Energy demand will soar, particularly in emerging economies, by a third in the next two decades, predicts the British oil giant BP, which estimates that renewables will take the lion's share of this growth.

“The dual challenge of producing more energy with fewer emissions sets the scene for our future,” BP CEO Bob Dudley said Thursday during the annual forecast presentation for 2040.

India and China will together account for half of the growth in energy consumption over this period.

Unlike in previous years, BP forecasts that growth in Chinese demand will slow, however, and even be overtaken by Indian growth.

"The Chinese economy will move away from the most energy-intensive industrial sectors, such as steel and cement, to turn to service," said BP's report.

Global growth in energy consumption will be supported by renewable energies (+ 7,1% per year over the 2019-2040 period) and natural gas (+ 1,7%), but oil will also continue to grow ( + 0,3%), while coal consumption will fall slightly (-0,1%).

BP estimates that the demand for petroleum, currently concentrated in the transport sector, will gradually evolve towards the manufacture of chemicals, fertilizers and plastic.

“Increasingly strong environmental pressures, particularly on plastic packaging and packaging, could slow the growth of this sector,” notes BP however.

If this slowdown in plastic consumption is due to a replacement by other products, and not by more recycling, the gains in terms of carbon emissions could be small, however warns the group.

To meet this demand, US shale oil producers will continue to increase production, before OPEC producers take over in the mid-2020s, BP predicts.

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... 040-190214

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The EIA published the International Energy Outlook 2019 with projections to 2050, EIA, September 2019.

Global energy consumption could almost halve by 2050

published on September 25, 2019

The American EIA (Energy Information Administration) published on September 24 its International Energy Outlook (1) in which it presents its global energy forecasts by 2050.

70% increase in demand in developing countries

According to the EIA reference scenario, world primary energy consumption could increase by 46,9% between 2018 and 2050. More than half of this additional demand could come from Asian developing countries (excluding OECD ( 2)): the energy consumption of this "group including China and India" could double by the middle of the XNUMXst century according to the EIA.

The very strong increase in demand envisaged in all “non-OECD” countries (+ 70% between 2018 and 2050) is explained by “strong economic growth, increased access to energy and rapid population growth” . In OECD countries, global energy consumption could also increase by the middle of the century (+ 15%), this increase being much more moderate than in developing countries due to "the lower economic and demographic growth and progress in energy efficiency ”.

The electric vector will play an important role in the rise in global energy consumption, particularly in the residential sector of developing countries (with the increase in population and the improvement of living conditions). Electricity production - injected into the networks - could thus increase worldwide by 79% between 2018 and 2050 (+ 2,3% per year on average in non-OECD countries, + 1% per year in countries of the 'OECD) according to the EIA reference scenario.

All energy sources consumed more in 2050

According to the EIA reference scenario, global demand will increase for all energy sources, including fossils (even if renewable energies are expected to experience the highest growth over the period). In 2050, fossil fuels could still account for 69% of global primary energy consumption, compared to 80% in 2018 according to EIA estimates.

Coal, frequently singled out for the high CO2 emissions associated with its combustion, could see its global consumption "decline until the decade to 2030" (with a transition to gas and renewable energies in the electricity sector). In the 2040s, the EIA estimated, however, that coal consumption could increase again to meet industrial needs as well as electricity production in Asian countries outside China.

According to the EIA, global CO2 emissions relating to energy could thus increase by 0,6% per year on average between 2018 and 2050 (against + 1,8% on average between 1990 and 2018), far from the ambitions displayed to combat global warming. While progress in energy efficiency and the partial replacement of coal by less carbon-based sectors could have a positive effect in the short term, the EIA underlines the strong impact on these emissions of demographic and economic growth in the longer term.

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... 050-190925

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World Energy Outlook 2019: different scenarios but still a lot of fossil fuels

published on November 13, 2019

The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its World Energy Outlook 13 on November 2019, which presents different scenarios for the evolution of the global energy system by 2040.
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https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... les-191113

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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020: key figures for energy in the world

published on June 17, 2020

Major BP published its annual publication on big energy data worldwide on June 17 (1). Presentation in the form of infographics of some key figures to remember, relating to the year 2019.

see the digest by Knowledge of Energies of this day:

https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org ... 019-200617