Addrelyn wrote:bernardd wrote:What do you think is the share of electricity used for heating and hot water? This figure must exist somewhere, right?
I have not found better than that
http://www.statistiques.equipement.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/20_ans_de_chauffage_dans_les_residences_principales_en_France_de_1982_a_2002_cle1c42ed.pdf
Already it gives an idea even if the document dates from 2002.
After a little calculation: 4Mtep * 11 = 600 TWh
This seems totally undervalued to me, because these are only main residences: all the non-residential is missing!
But already it would be equivalent to exports.
Let's try another approach: RTE publishes very nice curves and forecast methodology document.
The following elements can be seen on page 1 and 2:
- the annual cycle shown is consistent with an annual domestic consumption (NB different from final consumption) of 494TWh, which represents an average of 9500GWh / week.
By eye, the minimum is 6500 in August, and the maximum at 11500GWh.
We see a plateau between weeks 19 and 40 (May to September), which in my opinion corresponds to consumption in the absence of heating, which are then at 7500GWh / week. On the basis of this observation, the internal consumption without heating would be 7,5x52 = 390TWh, which would bring back to a final consumption of 347TWh, keeping the share of final consumption compared to internal consumption (89%).
This would correspond to a final consumption of electric heating of 93TWh (= 440-347), corresponding to a nuclear production of 111,6TWh (= 93x1,2).
This estimate is rather underestimated, because the consumption of air conditioning and the consumption of electric domestic hot water should be removed from the summer value.
According to this estimate, electric heating represents 21% of current final electricity consumption. But it represents an increase of 26% compared to the "noble" final consumption.
Using direct thermal solar (thermal collectors) and indirect solar (biomass) for heating, we could eliminate 10 nuclear power plants of 1450MW.
At the same time, the need to produce 347kWh of electricity for "noble" use would be greatly reduced and more accessible to renewable energies.
By the way, we see that the daily cycles of electric consumption go from 35GW to 53GW in summer, and from 67GW to 87GW in winter.
The average energy per week of 9500GWh / week corresponds to an average power of 56GW.
The energy per summer week of 7500GWh corresponds to an average power in summer of 44,6GW.
The energy per winter week of 10500GWh corresponds to an average power of 62,5GW, i.e. an additional energy per week of 3000GWh, corresponding to a supplement of 17,8GW of average power in winter.
It is consistent for the summer, but the winter day curve should be for a cold week.