Financial crises, understanding them with Arte thema

Current Economy and Sustainable Development-compatible? GDP growth (at all costs), economic development, inflation ... How concillier the current economy with the environment and sustainable development.
Christophe
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by Christophe » 03/02/16, 10:23

And an interview more alarmist enough:

P. Artus (Natixis): "The next crisis will be extraordinarily violent"


http://www.lesechos.fr/finance-marches/ ... 196739.php
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by Ahmed » 03/02/16, 10:53

Remundo, you wrote:
The problem does not lie in the systems, from the most liberal to the most statist, but in human nature. The lure of profit, the cowardice, the most abject cynicism are always present in all these great financial scandals.

Already, for a long time, there has been only one system that has developed into liberal and state variants (in varying proportions, then the moral criterion is inadequate to analyze the phenomenon.
Not that I deny the influence of sad characters *, but because the cause of the nuisances is mainly the result of the behavior of people devoid of the least bad intention: they act simply at their level, according to the systemic indications, without being aware consequences that it induces at the macroeconomic level.

* Which, moreover, have little choice, because they would otherwise be replaced by other more conformist agents.
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Re: Financial crises, understanding them with Arte thema




by moinsdewatt » 29/02/16, 20:52

Debt: agreement in principle between Argentina and the "vulture" funds

AFP 29 / 02 / 2016

Argentina has agreed to pay the total sum of 4,6 billion dollars to the "vulture" funds to put an end to the long battle waged after the country's bankruptcy in 2001, the mediator in charge of the case announced on Monday.


"This is a giant step forward in this long dispute but it is not the final step," Daniel Pollack said in a statement, adding that the Argentine Congress should approve the agreement and repeal a law that prohibited any payment vulture funds.

For nearly a decade, the NML and Aurelius funds have been fighting in US courts to demand the full repayment of Argentine securities redeemed at broken prices after the country's default in 2001.

The US court had ruled in 2012 before increasing pressure on Argentina by forbidding it to pay more accommodating creditors who accepted a discount of 70% until these procedural funds had been repaid.

After years of deadlock, the new center-right government in Argentina put on the table in early February a compromise offer to repay 6,5 billion dollars on the 9 billion held by all the procedural funds.

After several weeks of intense negotiations, Argentina has managed to reach an agreement with the four investment funds - including NML and Aurelius - which were resisting but finally accepted a discount of 25%.

To make this payment, Argentina "plans" to return to the financial markets to raise money, said the mediator in his statement.

This agreement may also allow Argentina to resume the payment of its other creditors who accepted a larger discount of 70% in two 2005 and 2010 debt restructurings.

http://www.boursorama.com/actualites/de ... fba33b6b3c

and here they are going to roll the debt ......
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by Christophe » 01/03/16, 01:13

That's great anything ... they did not understand the lesson ?? They want to get back? What is this madness?

Especially that 4.6 billion is not much in a country like Argentina !!
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Re: Financial crises, understanding them with Arte thema




by Christophe » 04/10/18, 17:01

The next is preparing ...

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Re: Financial crises, understanding them with Arte thema




by Christophe » 04/10/18, 17:10

For those who can not read the article ... That's good perspective!

The five ingredients that prepare for the 2020 crisis

Ten years after the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the risk of a new explosion is high again. And this time, over-indebted states no longer have the same weapons to deal with them.

Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, questions remain about the causes and consequences of the financial crisis. But from a future perspective, the most relevant question is what will bring about the recession and the global crisis of tomorrow.

Towards a global recession

The current global expansion is expected to continue next year, as the United States has large budget deficits, China has relaxed lending policies and Europe remains on a recovery path. But by 2020, conditions will lead to a financial crisis, followed by a global recession. Several reasons explain this.

FirstFiscal stimulus policies currently pushing US annual growth above its 2% potential are unsustainable. From here to 2020, said relaunch will be exhausted.

Inexorable rise in interest rates

Secondlythe timing of this stimulus has been inadequate, the US economy is currently overheating, and inflation rises above the target. The US Federal Reserve should continue to increase the federal funds target rate, bringing it from its current level of 2% to 3,5% at least by 2020, which will probably raise interest rates in the short and long term, as well as the US dollar.

At the same time, inflation is also rising in other major economies, while the price of oil is contributing to additional inflationary pressures. This means that the other major central banks will follow the Fed on the path of monetary policy normalization, which will reduce global liquidity while exerting upward pressure on interest rates.

Commercial Climbing

Thirdlytrade tensions between the Trump administration and China, Europe, Mexico, Canada and others are doomed to escalation, resulting in slower growth and higher inflation. Growth in the rest of the world is expected to slow, as countries find it necessary to fight back against US protectionism. Emerging markets, already weakened, will continue to suffer the effects of protectionism and tight monetary conditions in the United States.

FourthEurope will also experience slower growth, due to monetary tightening and trade frictions. On the other hand, populist policies in countries such as Italy risk creating an unsustainable debt dynamics within the euro area. Under these conditions, a new global recession could lead Italy and other countries to leave the eurozone outright.

Excessive valuations

Fifth point, the US and global stock markets are buzzing. US price-earnings ratios are 50% higher than their historical average, private capital valuations have become excessive, and government bonds are too expensive given their low yield and negative term premiums. High yield credit is also becoming increasingly expensive, as the debt ratio of US companies rises to historic highs.

"The room for fiscal stimulus around the world is already tight."

In addition, debt in many emerging markets and some developed economies is clearly excessive. Commercial and residential real estate is far too expensive in many parts of the world.

Reduced recovery margins

The fiscal stimulus margin in the world is already reduced by a massive public debt. The possibility of new unconventional monetary policies will be limited by hypertrophic balance sheets and a lack of ability to reduce policy rates. In addition, bailouts in the financial sector will be intolerable for countries marked by the resurgence of populist movements, and led by almost insolvent governments.

Central bank powerlessness

In the United States, in particular, the legislator has limited the Fed's ability to provide liquidity to non-bank and foreign financial institutions with dollar-denominated liabilities. In Europe, the rise of populist parties complicates the adoption of reforms at EU level, as well as the creation of the institutions necessary to combat the next financial crisis and the recession that will ensue.

Unlike 2008, when governments had the political tools to prevent a free fall, leaders facing the next recession will have their hands tied, knowing that overall debt levels are higher than before the crisis. When they do, the crisis and the recession of tomorrow could be even more severe and prolonged than those of yesterday.

Nouriel Roubini is the president of Roubini Global Economics. This text is published in collaboration with Project Syndicate 2018.
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Re: Financial crises, understanding them with Arte thema




by Christophe » 25/04/19, 15:28

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Re: Financial crises, understanding them with Arte thema




by izentrop » 25/04/19, 23:43

Towards a "global financial tsunami" from 2020?
Georges Ugeux, a specialist in global finance and author of the book The descent into hell of finance (Odile Jacob, 2019), explains why all the signals are red, and in particular how the over-indebtedness of the states could trigger an imminent financial tsunami . https://usbeketrica.com/article/tsunami ... ndial-2020
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Re: Financial crises, understanding them with Arte thema




by Christophe » 30/09/19, 10:55

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