The floods of 2018 are as severe as those of 1910 (in terms of rainfall)!

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Did67
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Re: The floods of 2018 are as severe as those of 1910 (in terms of precipitation)!




by Did67 » 27/01/18, 20:04

Why always reason with the cookie ???

a) That the media focus on what interests people = the damage (or the risk of damage), or more prosaically, which disrupts their life (difficulty of moving, moves of fortune, works, breaks ...) do not me does not seem shocking. Neither obvious evidence of incompetence, decay and I do not know what framed by dirty words.

I do not think that we can seriously criticize the journalists (some of whom deserve it amply), being like them: caricatural. It would be better to take the trouble to be both more precise and more accurate.

It is undeniable that the flood in Paris did not reach that of 1910. The photos are there. And that's what people fear first. Not the rain that falls, which they do not care much (I put the gardeners and farmers aside).

b) Flood dynamics are a little more complex than average rainfall. It depends on where it falls, when, on what state of the ground ... etc

But, indeed, fortunately that the works serve!

C) But I too have written several times that I am convinced, unlike the other zygomar with the falsely blond hair [proof of great intelligence, above average according to him: he does not want to age! ], that global warming is going fast. And that the term "global warming" is a bit misleading, because it is a global average. That this can very concern, in certain regions, more turbulence, more precipitation, even more extreme cold. I defended the carbon tax, which has soared by the majority here. Even if it had to cost me. Just to be consistent.
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Re: The floods of 2018 are as severe as those of 1910 (in terms of precipitation)!




by Christophe » 27/01/18, 20:52

Did67 wrote:It is undeniable that the flood in Paris did not reach that of 1910. The photos are there. And that's what people fear first. Not the rain that falls, which they do not care much (I put the gardeners and farmers aside).


I never say the opposite and it is clear in the title (it seems to me)! I am talking about the level of precipitation here!

I simply say, comparing the statements Météo France, that the precipitation is worse in 2018 than in 1910 ... so meteorologically we are in an episode more exceptional than in 1910 ...

It seems to me that"we" minimize today's episode compared to that of 1910 by simply basing ourselves on the level of the Seine in Paris no? ... If so, it's very reductive as analysis!


As I said above: what matters, for humanity, is the climate (and therefore the evolution of precipitation), not the height of the Seine in Paris, which only concerns Parisians! I think it is important to specify it (no "main stream media" article specified it! Sorry but I find that quite disappointing, even serious for the sake of having to inform ...)

We can in a few months, estimate, the damage cost of the precipitation of 2018 and compare them with those of 1910 ... but not on that the comparison wants to say something as the companies are different.

A cave flooded in 1910 it was some lost food, today it is of the household appliance, the HiFi, a car ... in short much more equipment lost!

Can it be related to the GDP of the 2 times one would have an idea of ​​the socio-economic cost?
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Re: The floods of 2018 are as severe as those of 1910 (in terms of precipitation)!




by Did67 » 28/01/18, 10:36

Yes. It depends on what you are talking about.

Your title is clear. But you criticize the media, which, in fact, do not talk about the same thing: they talk about the effects on people's lives, the economic losses ... "Poverty" is always a carrier in the media. Why do we talk so much about the dead and not about births?

So it's interesting to point out, if we are interested in climate change, that the rains are probably more important in 2018 (I did not look at the figures in detail - I am by nature wary of "statistics", at which we can, within certain limits, say what we want).

It is clear that the consequences, with equal flood, are today worse: today, even famous museums store their reserves in cellars; restaurants with good bottles; companies, freezers, servers ... There are cars in the water ... The riverboats stop and it becomes a "loss", "technical unemployment" ... It is precisely, what makes that it becomes a "disaster" - and that the media speak about it in these terms ... And are interested first in the level of the flood. And that to that. This is what the people concerned are watching too! Not what fell.

I'm not too much on the news, not on the news channels. Just one or the other JT, on public service. Where I agree with you, it is that they generally underline the "records" of wind (recently in Cape Corse). They regularly report that this is for the 3rd or 4th time, the warmest year (or the hottest month) in the past 10 years. But it is true that I have not heard any comment on the total amount of rain that fell, compared to 1910. France2 fired the climate-skeptic presenter (Philippe Verdier). Today they are a little less denial ... But it is clear that they are not "activists against global warming"! But is this their role?
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Re: The floods of 2018 are as severe as those of 1910 (in terms of precipitation)!




by Did67 » 28/01/18, 10:38

Did67 wrote: the other zygomar with the falsely blond hair (the proof of a great intelligence, above average according to him: he does not want to grow old!),


In this regard, a joke that I find fierce: he thought USB was the spare USA.
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Re: The floods of 2018 are as severe as those of 1910 (in terms of precipitation)!




by Christophe » 28/01/18, 12:40

Did67 wrote:So it's interesting to point out, if we are interested in climate change, that the rains are probably more important in 2018 (I did not look at the figures in detail - I am by nature wary of "statistics", at which we can, within certain limits, say what we want).


Larger rainThat's all I wanted to emphasize here! And why is there no article about it?

These are Météo France readings ... rainfall compared to a "normal season" ... and going from 100% to 250% does not leave much room for doubt ...

To be precise: the only statistical doubt that one can have is the period of reference of the normals: 1971 - 2000 for 1910 and 1981 - 2010 for 2018 is 10 years of shift but 20 years in common ... a correction could to be applied but I doubt that it changes things much ... For example, the first includes 1976 and 2ieme 2003 ...

To do well it should also superimpose 2 cards ...
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Re: The floods of 2018 are as severe as those of 1910 (in terms of precipitation)!




by Christophe » 28/01/18, 12:45

Did67 wrote:In this regard, a joke that I find fierce: he thought USB was the spare USA.


You leave! : Mrgreen:
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Re: The floods of 2018 are as severe as those of 1910 (in terms of precipitation)!




by Did67 » 28/01/18, 12:58

Christophe wrote:
To be precise: the only statistical doubt that one can have is the period of reference of the normals: 1971 - 2000 for 1910 and 1981 - 2010 for 2018 is 10 years of shift but 20 years in common ... a correction could to be applied but I doubt that it changes things much ... For example, the first includes 1976 and 2ieme 2003 ...

To do well it should also superimpose 2 cards ...



Ideally, to reason the link "rainfall / floods", it would be necessary to treat the readings by watershed.

But to evaluate the effects of global warming on rainfall (and not floods), it suffices to process the raw data of the stations concerned. MétéoFrance must have them (alas, some of their data are paying - there, I did not check, but I looked for data on the ETP - Potential Evapo-transpiration, which were)
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Re: The floods of 2018 are as severe as those of 1910 (in terms of precipitation)!




by Christophe » 28/01/18, 13:03

Did67 wrote:Ideally, to reason the link "rainfall / floods", it would be necessary to treat the readings by watershed.


The rainfall per watershed are the 2 cards that I put on the 1st message, I don't think so? You just need to mentally "zoom in" on the Seine basin for the 2018 map ...

Did67 wrote:But to evaluate the effects of global warming on rainfall (...)


We can just say that it is "more rainy" at the level of the Seine than in 1910 ...
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Re: The floods of 2018 are as severe as those of 1910 (in terms of precipitation)!




by izentrop » 28/01/18, 23:48

Christophe wrote:More important rain, that's all I wanted to emphasize here! And why is there no article about it?

These are Météo France readings ... rainfall compared to a "normal season" ... and going from 100% to 250% does not leave much room for doubt ...
In this case it would have been necessary to put as title: "More rainfall in January 2018 than in January 1910", because the flood of 1910 followed a year 1909 of exceptional precipitation.

You took the precipitation rate from normal as a comparison. Was the normal precipitation rate in 1910 the same as in 2018? not guaranteed because of the increase of the rains in the zones usually rainy, due to the climatic disturbance
It is likely that anthropogenic influences have affected the global water cycle since 1960: they have contributed to increases in atmospheric water vapor content, changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation on continents around the globe , the intensification of heavy precipitation events on continental regions where data are sufficient ...https://theconversation.com/pluies-inte ... port-60519

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Re: The floods of 2018 are as severe as those of 1910 (in terms of precipitation)!




by chatelot16 » 28/01/18, 23:55

1910 is older than 2018

oops I confuse older and rainy
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