CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability

Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
pacian-
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CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by pacian- » 28/02/23, 15:04

Some basic figures on the climate and elementary deductions, unpretentious, far from the affirmative of the IPCC.

CO2 is 0,04% of the atmosphere. Commonly we read that the greenhouse effect comes for 3/4 of water vapour, 25% of CO2, which raises the temperature on Earth by 32°.
Our GHG emissions exploded in the middle of the 20th century. In 2, human CO2020 represents 1/3 of atmospheric CO2, after 170 years of industrialization, and 2/3 of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect.
GHGs are considered natural and "stable" before 1850, then human GHGs are added after that date. 50% of CO2 accumulates durably (the GWP) for the IPCC (disputed).
The concentration of CO2 (0,04%) increased by 50% from 1850 to 2020 (280ppm / 410ppm), for a temperature increase of 1,2° measured.
So: the increase (anthropogenic for the IPCC) of 1,2° includes GWP, feedback, induced effects and 1/3 of other anthropogenic GHGs, remains 0,8° for anthropogenic CO2. Since the increase in CO2 represents 1/3 of CO2 in 2020 (140ppm/170a) for an increase of 0,8°, the 2/3 of CO2 prior to industrial represents 1,6° for natural, for a total of 2,4° of the greenhouse effect by CO2.
We can become skeptical with a little calculation: By reporting 2,5° to 32° of the greenhouse effect we find 8% of the greenhouse effect in 2020 by CO2 (3% anthropogenic) and not 25% as they say everywhere! What the seasonality of CO2 does not explain.
Whereas my estimate, without a supercomputer, of the increase for 2100 corresponds to the IPCC median, with the peak of emissions and no negative feedback. 1,2° for the anthropogenic increase prior to 2020, plus 1,7° for all anthropogenic (2020-2100; ( 1,2*(80*2,5 ppm) /140ppm) i.e. 2,9° for 250 years of industrialization with the exclusively anthropogenic GHG mechanism.

If we explain the sharp rise in temperature of the a90 by GHG, GWP, saturation of carbon sinks... what broke this infernal exponential ten years later, the ceiling of interglaciations (+2°) is not far .
https://www.contrepoints.org/2013/03/31 ... uis-20-ans
The IPCC forecast for 2100 was at the beginning of 6°, ten times more than the observation in the 20th century (after 150 years of coal mining), it makes for a disaster scenario like:
https://www.climato-realistes.fr/evenem ... 200-av-jc/
https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/archeo- ... yas_126539

Our CO2 emissions exploded after 1950, while the temperature only really took off 30 years later. With Abbé Pierre's call, we can wonder if CO2 is really the only culprit.
https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2 ... -sans-co2/
Could the accumulation of the rest of the anthropogenic "could" cause a bad surprise in the long run, without regulation like for CFCs?
Would an overheating of the sun have been amplified by the anthropogenic?
https://planet-terre.ens-lyon.fr/planet ... -fig09.gif
climate-change-co2/the-sun-causes-global-warming-t16970.html

Glacier tourism began after the retreat of the sea of ​​ice which, in the 17th century, advanced to the valley (volcanic eruptions). At that time it was said in Chamonix that there used to be pastures instead of the sea of ​​ice and a passage without ice to go to Italy! We are in neither case, the climate is made of fluctuations. (footer) http://glaciers-climat.fr/PAG/petit_age_glaciaire.html
The temperature has already risen by 1,2° since 1850, it's panic! With the temperature curve following the exponential of CO2, shouldn't the Earth already be a hell? If we put it into perspective: the glacial cycles have a range of +2° -8° for +2 m and – 130 m from sea level. In the Christian era the fluctuation range is 2° and we are coming out of a cold period, so... But the IPCC affirms that the natural fluctuations are insignificant in comparison with its forecasts.
https://planet-terre.ens-lyon.fr/ressou ... m-temp.xml

Is the speed of temperature increase exceptional for the IPCC (0,6° in the 20th century), or is it catching up after the Little Ice Age and the stalling of the Neolithic era? Who can really affirm that there have not already been heat strokes 50 years ago 100 years before us!
There would be far fewer skeptics without imponderables in the IPCC forecasts, or for other reasons.
There is the inexplicable:
https://www.profession-gendarme.com/le- ... auffistes/
Contestation of the elites:
https://www.telerama.fr/ecrans/dereglem ... 009720.php
By relativizing:
https://www.les-crises.fr/climat-8-anal ... auffement/
Climatic accidents:
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89v%C ... de_8200_AP
...
How not to be skeptical when specialists temper the IPCC's assertions: overvaluation of GWP, importance of CO2 on the climate, saturation of carbon sinks, increase in exclusively anthropogenic CO2...
https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2 ... rique-3-4/
https://www.science-climat-energie.be/2 ... asardeuse/

The IPCC compiles scientific and climatological studies. But what is this information worth when we remember that in the spring of 2021 meteorologists were predicting a dry and hot summer, before this summer became the coolest and wettest for 40 years!
Politics also gives reason to be suspicious. The IPCC is an intergovernmental organization (political therefore) which gives an official thesis. But after the lies of the war in Iraq by the West and when politics, economics, ecology mingle with science, the carbon tax becomes the solution.
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sicetaitsimple
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Re: ppm, sun and climate variability




by sicetaitsimple » 28/02/23, 17:14

There is an ""active" thread on this subject. It would be a shame to disperse. Might as well copy your post there.

climate-change-co2/the-latest-figures-and-weather-consequences-of-global-warming-t13878-1940.html
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pacian-
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by pacian- » 01/03/23, 14:42

There are plenty of places I could make a duplicate, but I don't have the power to delete the original troublemaker!
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Christophe
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by Christophe » 01/03/23, 15:27

You can continue here as it is specific to ppm…and solar activity…
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izentrop
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by izentrop » 02/03/23, 00:44

pacien- wrote: The IPCC is an intergovernmental body (therefore political)
Not scientific.
On the other hand, your demonstration has nothing scientific about it.
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pacian-
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by pacian- » 02/03/23, 14:06

izentrop wrote:The IPCC is an intergovernmental body (therefore political)
Simple remark of old monkey!

My goal is not to demonstrate (if it is possible in climatology) but to relativize with natural climatic variability.
Is it scientific to forget what is wrong in the right direction!

co2-atm-temp-fig09.gif
co2-atm-temp-fig09.gif (130.97 KiB) Viewed 1649 times



https://planet-terre.ens-lyon.fr/planet ... -fig09.gif
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Christophe
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by Christophe » 02/03/23, 14:14

pacien- wrote:Simple remark of old monkey!


Remarkable note!! You figured it out in just 3 messages! Cheer ! 8) 8) 8)
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phil59
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by phil59 » 02/03/23, 21:57

: roll:

New nickname?
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hmmmmm, hmmmmmmmmmmmmm, hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmm, huh, hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

: Oops: : Cry: :( : Shock:
pacian-
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by pacian- » 11/03/23, 18:54

After the last glaciation, something (sun?) stopped global warming for 12 years (000°). This something that causes this long stall is not eternal. Are we currently seeing the resumption of natural global warming with a catch-up of millennia?
Is the sun responsible (graph of 2/3/) for this pause and then for the resumption of warming? If so, anthropogenic warming is less significant than claimed!
Image

https://www.les-crises.fr/climat-8-analyse-rechauffement/



(only 1 nickname here)
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My preference : climate variability.
izentrop
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by izentrop » 11/03/23, 19:22

pacien- wrote:Is the sun responsible (graph of 2/3/) for this pause and then for the resumption of warming?
Yes, but also to the attraction of the giant planets of the solar system which cause the cycles of Milankovitch...

This video explains it pretty well.


Berruyer also explains these cycles in the page you quote.
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