CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability

Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
unpeusecenID
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by unpeusecenID » 24/03/23, 17:56

pacien- wrote:
Image

Like what it is not just CO2 that plays on global warming, the climate is complex.

Moreover, in the analogy of the pot and the fire below, putting the fire on hotter, very quickly (anthropogenic CO2), does not cause a proportionately rapid rise in temperature.
There is a phenomenon of climate inertia on the globe, in particular because of the oceans.
The effect of CO2 is logarithmic as said at the beginning.
The average global temperature should not be expected to follow CO2 perfectly and instantaneously.
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by pacian- » 24/03/23, 19:25

unpeusecenID wrote:Like what it is not just CO2 that plays on global warming, the climate is complex.
Hence the usefulness of a debate on climate variability Nature, which does not particularly concern gec-ers!

unpeusecenID wrote:There is a phenomenon of climate inertia on the globe, in particular because of the oceans.
The average global temperature should not be expected to follow CO2 perfectly and instantaneously.
It's half true, the greenhouse effect first heats the atmosphere and then the oceans. We are far from +16° for the atmosphere, measurement of +1.2°. The measurements at Vostok are on the atmosphere, not on the sea.

unpeusecenID wrote: the analogy of the saucepan and the fire below, put the fire higher, t
This analogy is not ideal. And since nothing beats a good drawing:

Science is evolutionary not dogmatic, it gropes, me too.
The comparison of Death Valley is fortunately not valid, not always easy to make an analogy.
If we want to refine a little with the "catch-up", we are not currently getting closer to the sun but in the hot zone (B) where there is little difference in insolation on the orbit (from A to B ).
Climatic cooling for B on the previous Milankovitch cycle, where we should be (without the dryas-r and except new disturbance).

ellip.jpg
ellip.jpg (113.38 KiB) Viewed 778 times


If the 5000a of stability are due to an exceptional astronomical combination, which I want to believe for the collapse of 230a ago, this is the opportunity to find one of the articles that demonstrates it!
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by pacian- » 27/03/23, 18:25

unpeusecenID wrote:There is a phenomenon of climate inertia on the globe, in particular because of the oceans.
The average global temperature should not be expected to follow CO2 perfectly and instantaneously.
The IPCC was created because of the rapid temperature/ppm correlation.

Correction of negligence:

My graph uses an annual cycle to represent the periodicity of 120a, it is a simplistic parabola, also out of step with the classic view of the temperature at Vostok! Shocking for connoisseurs but intuitive and sufficiently representative of the resulting parameters, I should have specified. : Cry:
The previous warming reading (130a) is linear, so "insolation" in the hot zone appears "constant". The hottest of a warming (B) is only the reflection of an accumulation, no thermal recovery possible.
unpeusecenID wrote: in the analogy of the saucepan and the fire below, putting the fire on hotter, very quickly (anthropogenic CO2), does not cause a proportionately rapid rise in temperature.
And yet, in the hypothesis of impact volcanism, a volcanic parasol stops the initiated warming and stabilizes the temperature (12a according to my calculation). The day when this parasol disappears, the sunstroke is no longer attenuated and it is the return of the warming before the dryas-r! A pseudo catch-up with the increase in the level of insolation and warming.
There is already a warming trend since the dryas-r (weakening of the volcanic parasol for me) amplified by the anthropogenic and probably by the sun (increased insolation?).
Could an astronomical combination also explain this long stability?

Look for error and forgetfulness.
pacien- wrote:When we look at the correlation with the temperature we notice that for the last cooling there is an amplitude of 10° for 70ppm, whereas with the explosion of CO2 of 200ppm the temperature only rose by 8°, it should already be 3 times more important logically (8+16°), the IPCC invokes inertia.
Do not forget the share of CO2 in the greenhouse effect:
+4° with a 25% share, 16°/4 (approximate, expected in 100a, +1,2° actual).
+1,2° with 8% of my calculation, 16° * 0,075; which proves the IPCC right.
Is the % on the net (20-25%) fancy?

Ahmed wrote:profoundly modify behaviors that threaten in various ways the living conditions of living beings on Earth.
The last calculation gives you "right" for the greenhouse effect, you have to explain that to the Chinese and US!
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by Ahmed » 27/03/23, 18:35

As for the Chinese and the Americans, I am happy to count on you to support me, we won't be too many. 8)
What you don't seem to want to take into account, without meaning to be offended or to be too categorical, is that the CO2 and CC are only one of the aspects of these attacks on the biosphere. Strangely (sic), it is the only one that can give rise to a supposed economic recovery that a sluggish market is impatiently awaiting.
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by Obamot » 27/03/23, 21:09

Even if you pretend to ignore the irony and play the fool that you are not, I am absolutely convinced that no one is motivated to deliberately make global warming worse!

Honestly and without wanting to contradict you, so you're not going "anthropotechnicize the climate "(and all the debates?) with your moral lessons... If I may say so, for 4 billion years, 'the climate' has given a damn about your convoluted talk about the "economic recovery", him, (no, the subject is more serious...) and it is even less by sowing division as you do elsewhere, that man will become more intelligent or wise and will reduce his emissions. When you are not even dare to glimpse the very "Down to earth" [SIC] geopolitical perspectives of the only current and future possible outcome: a multipolar world.

The reduction of anthropogenic emissions can only be achieved through a more virtuous and ethical world, by ceasing the unbridled race for speculation and profits at all costs (which by the way you are unwittingly supporting by supporting American predation ) a better educated world, in Peace, and therefore justice and minimalism.
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by GuyGadeboisTheBack » 27/03/23, 21:38

Yeah....and...honestly, huh?
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by Ahmed » 27/03/23, 22:24

Your world, possibly multipolar (did I argue the contrary?) does not care about my moral lessons, certainly, but nevertheless requires according to you "a more virtuous and ethical world, by putting an end to the unbridled race for speculation and profits at all costs (*) a better educated world, in Peace, and therefore justice and minimalism". I wonder if there is not a (very) slight contradiction in this sentence? Moreover, my analysis is not based on simple pious wishes, the latter being very widespread, with the little effectiveness that can be seen.

You write:
I am absolutely convinced that no one is motivated to deliberately make global warming worse!

...nor anyone to destroy the land, to accentuate the extinction of species, to desert the oceans, to reduce a large part of the planet to slavery, nor to concrete the soil, nor etc. No, it is not voluntary, only a consequence of a functioning that by various processes always renewed as they are successively exhausted industrial societies strive to make last.

* I removed a passage which was an insinuation devoid of foundation and which in addition rested on an accusatory inversion... We will kindly put this in the category of banter... 8)
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by Obamot » 27/03/23, 23:36

I didn't notice any unfounded mockery or contradiction, but let's face it. And although I do very well without it, one of my motivations for coming here is to fight against intellectual laziness. And I think that's the real plague of our time (because of the internet?)

Now, since you just left the ZERO level of humanist com with flying colors :P (re taunting), but these times it knows you so I take advantage of it :) if we could return to the debate on "major trends in the influence of the sun and climate variability", without putting any esoteric touch on it, because you can't do anything about it (except a political career) that would suit me too. : Lol:
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by GuyGadeboisTheBack » 28/03/23, 00:26

Image
I laugh at that, I laugh at nothing
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Re: CO2 ppm, sun and climate variability




by Obamot » 28/03/23, 03:49

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