I can't believe that we can't measure the effects of covid ... We should at least see -5% of air traffic, right?
It has no direct correlation
ABC2019 wrote:that's an average value, but in fact from one year to the next the variations are several tenths of a ppm. Not because of the fires but because of the fluctuations in the surface temperatures of the oceans (ENSO type oscillations) which affect the absorption of carbon by the oceans. So no chance of seeing anything statistically significant on the curve.
It should be remembered that even if we reduce emissions, CO2 will continue to rise, inexorably (even if it is slower), until all the fossils accessible underground have been burnt. No chance of seeing a decline before the end of the century.
Fossils burned or not, Janco has written it for a long time
Because of the very great inertia of some of the components of the climate machine, the evolution we have set in motion will therefore have consequences for a few thousand years, whatever we do now. Let us dare to draw a parallel: the climatic machine behaves a bit like a car whose first behavior, when you press the brake pedal, is to accelerate a little harder. It is quite easy to understand that if we wait to act until the situation has already deteriorated, then the only guarantee we will have at that point will be that “it will be worse behind”, whatever we do.
https://jancovici.com/changement-climat ... t-arreter/.
Absorption by the oceans represents nearly 90% ... The vegetation rejects practically as much as it absorbs.
Even with a complete cut-off, a host of feedback effects will continue to make the situation worse.
For 1 million years that life has been stabilized on earth, the average temperature has never exceeded 2 ° and atmospheric CO2 has never exceeded 400 ppm. Change has never been faster, so it's not just a question of whether or not to burn the rest of the fossils, ABC