Limiting Global: How CO2?

Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
ENERC
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Re: Limit the warming: how many CO2?




by ENERC » 23/12/20, 08:14

Christophe wrote:I can't believe we can't measure the effects of covid ...

We should at least see -5% of air traffic, right?

415 ppm at the start of 2021.
400 ppm at the start of 2015.
therefore 2,5 ppm more per year.
CO2 emissions will drop by 7% this year.
So the CO2 will increase by 2,32 instead of 2,5 ppm / year.

But maybe not: I believe that the 7% decrease does not include the mega fires of 2020 (USA / Siberia / Australia / Amazonia). These 7% are calculated on the consumption of gas / oil / coal.
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Re: Limit the warming: how many CO2?




by ABC2019 » 23/12/20, 08:35

ENERC wrote:
Christophe wrote:I can't believe we can't measure the effects of covid ...

We should at least see -5% of air traffic, right?

415 ppm at the start of 2021.
400 ppm at the start of 2015.
therefore 2,5 ppm more per year.
CO2 emissions will drop by 7% this year.
So the CO2 will increase by 2,32 instead of 2,5 ppm / year.

that's an average value, but in fact from one year to the next the variations are several tenths of a ppm. Not because of the fires but because of the fluctuations in the surface temperatures of the oceans (ENSO type oscillations) which affect the absorption of carbon by the oceans. So no chance of seeing anything statistically significant on the curve.

It should be remembered that even if we reduce emissions, CO2 will continue to rise, inexorably (even if it is slower), until all the fossils accessible underground have been burnt. No chance of seeing a decline before the end of the century.
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Re: Limit the warming: how many CO2?




by izentrop » 23/12/20, 09:07

I can't believe that we can't measure the effects of covid ... We should at least see -5% of air traffic, right?
: Shock: It has no direct correlation : roll:
ABC2019 wrote:that's an average value, but in fact from one year to the next the variations are several tenths of a ppm. Not because of the fires but because of the fluctuations in the surface temperatures of the oceans (ENSO type oscillations) which affect the absorption of carbon by the oceans. So no chance of seeing anything statistically significant on the curve.

It should be remembered that even if we reduce emissions, CO2 will continue to rise, inexorably (even if it is slower), until all the fossils accessible underground have been burnt. No chance of seeing a decline before the end of the century.
Fossils burned or not, Janco has written it for a long time
Because of the very great inertia of some of the components of the climate machine, the evolution we have set in motion will therefore have consequences for a few thousand years, whatever we do now. Let us dare to draw a parallel: the climatic machine behaves a bit like a car whose first behavior, when you press the brake pedal, is to accelerate a little harder. It is quite easy to understand that if we wait to act until the situation has already deteriorated, then the only guarantee we will have at that point will be that “it will be worse behind”, whatever we do.
https://jancovici.com/changement-climat ... t-arreter/.
Absorption by the oceans represents nearly 90% ... The vegetation rejects practically as much as it absorbs.
Even with a complete cut-off, a host of feedback effects will continue to make the situation worse.

For 1 million years that life has been stabilized on earth, the average temperature has never exceeded 2 ° and atmospheric CO2 has never exceeded 400 ppm. Change has never been faster, so it's not just a question of whether or not to burn the rest of the fossils, ABC : roll:
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Re: Limit the warming: how many CO2?




by ABC2019 » 23/12/20, 10:06

izentrop wrote:
It should be remembered that even if we reduce emissions, CO2 will continue to rise, inexorably (even if it is slower), until all the fossils accessible underground have been burnt. No chance of seeing a decline before the end of the century.
Fossils burned or not, Janco has written for a long time:

yes but there are two different questions, the one on the CO2 concentration and the one on the temperature. What I'm saying is that as long as we emit CO2 the concentration will continue to rise. The temperature answer is another question. In fact in the very long-term simulations that I have seen, when we stop emitting CO2, the inertia of the climate tends to continue to raise temperatures, but at the same time the CO2 begins to drop which counterbalances . Roughly speaking, the temperature stabilizes at the temperature reached at the end of the fossil combustion period. Then there are other inertias such as the melting of the ice caps and the rising waters, but in fact we don't really know anything about it, and in any case on the scale of several centuries no one knows how humanity will react and will adapt.
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Re: Limit the warming: how many CO2?




by ABC2019 » 23/12/20, 10:11

izentrop wrote:For 1 million years that life has been stabilized on earth,

I did not know that life had stabilized a million years ago, how did homo sapiens manage to appear then : Shock: ?

the average temperature has never exceeded 2 °

according to the network of precise thermometers used a million years ago? : Mrgreen:
and atmospheric CO2 the 400 ppm.
except that it was not CO2 that was the primary driver of temperatures, but the reverse, so the relationship between the two has no reason to be the same.
Change has never been faster, so it's not just a question of whether or not to burn the rest of the fossils, ABC : roll:

well of course that if it is a question of knowing how many fossils will be burned otherwise why we would make commitments not to burn them? : Shock:
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Re: Limit the warming: how many CO2?




by izentrop » 23/12/20, 15:12

I will not answer all your climate skeptic arguments
ABC2019 wrote:According to the network of precise thermometers used a million years ago?
You know very well that paleoclimatologists now have a whole panoply of techniques to indirectly evaluate the different measures, called "proxies" https://www.ajsonline.org/content/306/9/774
ABC2019 wrote: CO2 was not the primary driver of temperatures, but the reverse
What bad faith. : roll:

Start by reviewing your classics before giving science lessons to others.
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Re: Limit the warming: how many CO2?




by ABC2019 » 23/12/20, 15:18

izentrop wrote:I will not answer all your climate skeptic arguments
ABC2019 wrote:According to the network of precise thermometers used a million years ago?
You know very well that paleoclimatologists now have a whole panoply of techniques to indirectly evaluate the different measures, called "proxies" https://www.ajsonline.org/content/306/9/774

yes and I also know very well the amount of problems that this poses!

wish is looking for a proxy reconstruction that shows rising modern temperatures, for example. When you find her, tell me.


ABC2019 wrote: CO2 was not the primary driver of temperatures, but the reverse
What bad faith. : roll:

Start by reviewing your classics before giving science lessons to others.


well sorry but that is exactly what I am saying. Besides, why would the CO2 start to vary if there is not first a change in temperature and if no one is there to burn it?
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Re: Limit the warming: how many CO2?




by izentrop » 23/12/20, 21:38

ABC2019 wrote:well sorry but that is exactly what I am saying. Besides, why would the CO2 start to vary if there is not first a change in temperature and if no one is there to burn it?
and the greenhouse effect? ... since the industrial era we have not changed the composition of the atmosphere? Did you stay or what?
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Re: Limit the warming: how many CO2?




by ABC2019 » 23/12/20, 22:48

izentrop wrote:
ABC2019 wrote:well sorry but that is exactly what I am saying. Besides, why would the CO2 start to vary if there is not first a change in temperature and if no one is there to burn it?
and the greenhouse effect? ... since the industrial era we have not changed the composition of the atmosphere? Did you stay or what?

hem ... I was asking you why CO2 would have varied in pre-industrial times if it was not sensitive to temperature ... ???

if you want to do some science ... happy reading : Mrgreen:

https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00701284/document
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Re: Limit the warming: how many CO2?




by izentrop » 24/12/20, 00:23

And always your pirouettes, to avoid the anthropogenic responsibility of these last 150 years, which causes an unprecedented global warming https://www.lemonde.fr/blog/huet/2020/1 ... limatique/
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