Global warming: natural variability vs anthropogenic influence?

[GuyGadebois]

we now know that it was the regression of the boreal forest that allowed a sufficient increase in albedo to cause glaciation, and not the increase in snow cover alone. it may be a detail a priori, but it is important to try to understand what is happening today.

Source?

"Who appeared first, the egg or the chicken"?

[Paul72]

we now know that it was the regression of the boreal forest that allowed a sufficient increase in albedo to cause glaciation, and not the increase in snow cover alone. it may be a detail a priori, but it is important to try to understand what is happening today.

Source?

https://www.lsce.ipsl.fr/en/Phocea/Pisp ... .de-noblet

see the pdf of 2006, it's explained inside

[GuyGadebois]

Weather anecdote: With us, it's 12 ° and it's snowing.

[izentrop]

we now know that it was the regression of the boreal forest that allowed a sufficient increase in albedo to cause glaciation, and not the increase in snow cover alone. it may be a detail a priori, but it is important to try to understand what is happening today.

Source?

https://www.lsce.ipsl.fr/en/Phocea/Pisp ... .de-noblet

see the pdf of 2006, it's explained inside

Ok thank you, the link I gave for 2019 comes from a club of reputable climatologists.
All that to say that reforesting will not be the silver bullet.

Afforestation in the boreal region: little climatic benefits? https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/scie ... 207669941b

[Paul72]

Afforestation in the boreal region: little climatic benefits? https://www.lesoleil.com/actualite/scie ... 207669941b

Interesting, yet another example that everything is linked and that any well-intentioned attempt can have perverse effects ...
"Hey, if we transform the Amazon into a savannah, we reduce the albedo so the temperature, right?"
"Well no, no pot, it decreases the transpiration by the trees, therefore the induced cooling, and the atmospheric" rail "of the rains, so that in fact accentuates the warming"

We can ask ourselves the question for boreal forests threatened by fires: should they be protected from fires? cut them off preventively? to replant with "lighter" species?

[ABC2019]

It is not only the temperature that is affected by global warming and the various anthropic pressures ... we are talking about a change from a forest to a savannah, from a savannah to a desert, from semi-arid zones to deserts, from a tundra or taiga to a swampy area, from tropical monsoon areas to a dry area etc ... And this is where the difference between 1,5 ° C and 2 ° C becomes significant. The more scientists study these complex systems, the more they estimate the tipping points towards another state (necessarily more degraded) downward.

what are your sources where it is shown?

Just take the example of Australia, the African and Indonesian rain forests, even the boreal forests: they are already in the process of or in the process of crossing the seesaw (Australia it's done, the forests will no longer return to their initial state, it's over).

whatever ! What is Australia's "initial state"? for tens of millennia, the aborigines have practiced controlled fires and have shaped the flora and fauna of the continent! There are even trees whose seeds can only germinate after being exposed to fire. On the contrary, it was in modern times that ecologists rose up against these practices to protect small animals, resulting in fuel accumulation, with the result that we have seen ...

And yet the warming is only half the certain minimum (0,8 ° C for 1,5 ° C to come whatever happens, and certainly 3 ° C if we continue on our momentum)

we will not continue our momentum, the fossil reserves are not sufficient. Already oil is almost at its peak, given that we have to go get it to maintain production.

[GuyGadebois]

[
whatever ! What is Australia's "initial state"? for tens of millennia, the aborigines have practiced controlled fires and have shaped the flora and fauna of the continent! There are even trees whose seeds can only germinate after being exposed to fire. On the contrary, it was in modern times that ecologists rose up against these practices to protect small animals, resulting in fuel accumulation, with the result that we have seen ...

It's all in the word "controlled". There it is a matter of something quite different.

Member of the Bundjalungs, original keepers of the northern coastal area of ​​New South Wales, Oliver Costello cowardly, not without bitterness: “We have been telling people for a while that big fires are coming. Nobody listened to us. ” Aboriginal people, the first known human beings to have populated the Australian mainland, have learned to manage and calm the risks of mega-fires thanks to a specific knowledge of local ecosystems and to reasoned and carefully controlled burns.
“Before colonization, the tribes followed the law of the land by managing the relationships of local plants and animals, which have their own identity and their own behavior, with fire. When you burn the right way, you get the right animals, the right plants, and the right people in the right places. When you burn badly, you disrupt these relationships, ”said Oliver Costello, head of Firesticks, an organization that ensures the conservation of Indigenous fire and land management practices.

..... Unlike Western techniques, cultural burning takes a holistic approach synchronized with the seasons, the gestation periods of the animals, the sowing and planting periods. Westerners call this an "ecosystem"; Aborigines use the word "kinship". It is a complex system that determines how living things interact with each other and their roles, responsibilities and obligations to each other and to the earth.

Less effective Western techniques
The breakdown of old management practices has made vegetation more flammable and populations more vulnerable. Already in 1990, researcher Phil Cheney, member of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) published a scientific article on the current management of forest fires in Australia: "Like forests that were only managed by forest services since twenty years have been entrusted to the park management services which have little experience in fire management, the possibility appears to see in the future the large fires more frequent and probably more destructive. The public at large is deprived of the fire management skills that have been painstakingly and painstakingly acquired for over a hundred years. ”

..... Respect for the seasons is another fundamental element. With colonization, the Gregorian calendar became established and the year was divided into four seasons. However, the European notions of summer, autumn, winter and spring are totally inadequate to classify the Australian seasons, which are very diverse. For example, on Wardaman land, west of Katherine town in the Northern Territory, it is currently Yijilg, a late summer marked by heavy precipitation. Some territories see six different seasons per year, others more, others less.

“Westerners use dates and fuel conditions to know when to burn. They do not use the values, the kinship, the cultural laws which govern the territory and very often end up applying the wrong type of fire, deplores Oliver Costello. Often the fires are too hot. They damage and burn the canopy. The ground is therefore found naked, plagued by sunlight. This speeds up the regeneration of shrubs that crowd out grasses, grasses, ferns and other terrestrial species, and allows more combustible material to grow. ”It's a vicious circle.

[ABC2019]

“Westerners use dates and fuel conditions to know when to burn. They do not use the values, the kinship, the cultural laws which govern the territory and very often end up applying the wrong type of fire, deplores Oliver Costello. Often the fires are too hot. They damage and burn the canopy. The ground is therefore found naked, plagued by sunlight. This speeds up the regeneration of shrubs that crowd out grasses, grasses, ferns and other terrestrial species, and allows more combustible material to grow. ”It's a vicious circle.

do you still realize that your quote makes no reference to climate change, but only to forest management? (which is obviously the main reason for the change in land use).

[GuyGadebois]

do you still realize that your quote makes no reference to climate change, but only to forest management? (which is obviously the main reason for the change in land use).

Do you still realize that I am responding to your bullshit from above that did not mention climate change?

[ABC2019]

do you still realize that your quote makes no reference to climate change, but only to forest management? (which is obviously the main reason for the change in land use).

Do you still realize that I am responding to your bullshit from above that did not mention climate change?

this is normal, the real scientists say that there is nothing to associate the fires in Australia with climate change ...

http://joannenova.com.au/2019/08/prof-a ... te-change/



if you need a translation for "Current science cannot tell us of the sign of the change in future droughts", don't hesitate to ask