The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test for the environment and global warming?

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GuyGadebois
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by GuyGadebois » 03/04/20, 20:10

ENERC wrote:
I continue?????

We can clearly see that it is not tenable outside a major crisis (in clear collapse)

You do not continue since your conclusion is "We can see that this is not sustainable except for a major crisis". : Mrgreen:
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by Christophe » 04/04/20, 11:29

ENERC wrote:To get there, here is a ladle scenario:

(...)

I continue?????

We can clearly see that it is not tenable outside a major crisis (in clear collapse)


Yes continue! :)

But you are basing yourself on which scientific methodology or publication?
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by ENERC » 04/04/20, 12:03

But you are basing yourself on which scientific methodology or publication?
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The total pifometer : Cheesy:

In fact, going from 10 tonnes of CO2 per inhabitant per year to 5 T is quite easy: basically more plane, take the bike to get your bread, eat less meat, insulate your accommodation and consume locally.
Easy. We are on a Covid 19 type effort with the freedom to go have an aperitif at the neighbor's.

Going under 5 tonnes becomes much more difficult:
- my shoes .... how do I reduce my carbon footprint?
- clothes,
- the polyester or mammoth fur down jacket?
- electronic equipment ....
- packaging, household products, etc.
- no longer tarmac the roads?

As a reminder, the target is one tonne per inhabitant and per year (WYD sources for example).

On reflection, I think that instead of making a "linear" trajectory towards carbon neutrality in 2050, we would do better to make a 10-year plan to divide our emissions by 2, then give ourselves more time to change. our societies. (if we divide by 2 now, we have more time for the difficult part).

I liked the approach of Juliette Duquesne in this video from 26 '.
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by Christophe » 05/04/20, 11:50

Bin see..C in the air yesterday speaks of "Life-size test" on pollution ...

It is an excellent episode which goes well around the question as I like !! 8) 8) 8)

https://www.france.tv/france-5/c-dans-l ... l-air.html

And when we know that there are almost 8 million deaths from pollution per year "completely ignored" ... blocking the economy for a few hundred thousand potential deaths STRONGLY supports the hypothesis of Voluntary TEST ! : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by Christophe » 05/04/20, 11:54

Oops, I didn't say it:

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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by ABC2019 » 05/04/20, 12:01

Christophe wrote:Bin see..C in the air yesterday speaks of "Life-size test" on pollution ...

It is an excellent episode which goes well around the question as I like !! 8) 8) 8)

https://www.france.tv/france-5/c-dans-l ... l-air.html

And when we know that there are almost 8 million deaths from pollution per year "completely ignored" ... blocking the economy for a few hundred thousand potential deaths STRONGLY supports the hypothesis of Voluntary TEST ! : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:

it is not comparable for several reasons:
a) the projections of the epidemic if nothing had been done are rather tens of millions, not 8 million
b) these deaths would have been grouped over a few weeks or a month in each country so much more visible, and psychologically much more difficult to bear (it shows in Italy, in New York, or to a lesser extent in the East of the France)
c) we can hope to block the epidemic by stopping the countries for a few weeks, while for the pollution ben ... should stop everything all the time!
the conditions being different, the reactions were also different. As for the "test" ... no comment.
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by Christophe » 05/04/20, 12:07

It's true, I agree, if 100% of humanity catches it with 2% mortality it makes 7 * 000% = 2 million dead!

It was to see if you were following! : Mrgreen:
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by ABC2019 » 05/04/20, 12:10

good just the first few minutes: this kind of event that has never happened in the history of humanity ... yeah just in 1918, in 1957, in 1968 ... I do not speak well about epidemics plague and cholera before the twentieth century.
there is a "one in a billion chance" that it will happen 6 months before an American election ... uh considering that there is an election every 4 years and the epidemic lasts several months, I don't know how it is his calculation.
Well it didn't make me want to continue, it's just one more conspiratorial delirium. Christophe don't complain after your forum be considered "unreliable" if you peddle such ...
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by ENERC » 05/04/20, 12:11

And when we know that there are almost 8 million deaths from pollution per year "completely ignored" ... blocking the economy for a few hundred thousand potential deaths STRONGLY supports the hypothesis of Voluntary TEST ! : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen: : Mrgreen:

As well explained in this program, the dead of pollution are invisible. You have a stroke, which proves that it is due to pollution even if it is recognized as a risk factor?
While the Covid is concrete.

Pollution, junk food and climate change kill more than Covid, but it's just a risk factor.

For proof we have climato-skeptics but no covido-skeptics - whatever we never know :?

It's true, I agree, if 100% of humanity catches it with 2% mortality it makes 7 * 000% = 2 million dead!

No.
Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 , XNUMX after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.
This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].

The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.

If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.
Source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Clearly the probable mortality is 25 weaker.
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by Christophe » 05/04/20, 12:14

ENERC wrote:Clearly the probable mortality is 25 weaker.


Ah yes just I did not take into account the gageurs of figures ...

Suddenly 140/25 = 5,6 Millions ... <8 Millions annually ... therefore the corona saves lives!

But that we had already calculated with the 25 monthly pollution deaths in China !!

What other conclusions can be drawn from this? : Mrgreen:
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