The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test for the environment and global warming?

Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by wirbelwind262 » 01/04/20, 22:57

I stopped alcohol and the debates on forum : Twisted:
otherwise, just back from nature, it makes us dick
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by ENERC » 02/04/20, 08:49

We know that the Coronavirus crisis has already greatly limited local pollution ... but what about its impact on climate change?

At the risk of breaking the mood, the answer is: no impact on climate change.
At best, we would have a reduction in global GDP of 5% (and therefore CO2 emissions) by 2020.

As a reminder, if we want to avoid getting caught in the climate wall, we would have to reduce emissions by 10% per year each year. That is 90% of the 2019 amount at the end of the first year, 35% at 10 years, 12% at 20 years and 4% in 2050. (0,9 ^ 30)
10% less each year to hope for carbon neutrality in 2050. We will be far from it
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by Christophe » 03/04/20, 16:20

Wait Enerc, it's far from over ...

We will probably have the -10 to -20% on 2020!

And as I suggested: a puilleme can, maybe, change much later and especially allows access to simulations ???

It is speculative ... but it is possible!
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by ABC2019 » 03/04/20, 16:29

Christophe wrote:Wait Enerc, it's far from over ...

We will probably have the -10 to -20% on 2020!

And as I suggested: a puilleme can, maybe, change much later and especially allows access to simulations ???

It is speculative ... but it is possible!

and therefore it will only save 3 to 6 billion tonnes of CO2 and 0,2 ppm less.
There is absolutely nothing to prevent them from being consumed a little later.
The only measure that would be effective in limiting the CR would be the strict limitation of the perimeter of exploitable fossils, by the prohibition of production of new deposits. Needless to say, no producing country will do it .. and no consuming country will ask for it.
The "fight against CC" is just a gigantic farce in which humanity has been engaged for 30 years. In reality, we will use all the resources we have, and we will face the consequences as we can - what humanity has always done what.
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by Christophe » 03/04/20, 16:30

Rolalala I am not saying that it is significant in the long term: I am simply saying that it MAY be used to measure or simulate interesting things ...
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by ABC2019 » 03/04/20, 16:34

yes ... or not. We'll talk about it in 10 years :).
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by GuyGadebois » 03/04/20, 17:23

ABC2019 wrote:and therefore it will only save 3 to 6 billion tonnes of CO2 and 0,2 ppm less.

Indeed, it's peanuts ... especially for No2



http://video.lefigaro.fr/figaro/video/c ... 278290001/
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by Ahmed » 03/04/20, 19:04

You have hiccups, my Guytounet :?:
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by GuyGadebois » 03/04/20, 19:06

Ahmed wrote:You have hiccups, my Guytounet :?:

No, my Ahmedicis. : Mrgreen: Just a little bit.
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Re: The Coronavirus: a reverse stress test on global warming?




by ENERC » 03/04/20, 19:54

Christophe wrote:Wait Enerc, it's far from over ...

We will probably have the -10 to -20% on 2020!

And as I suggested: a puilleme can, maybe, change much later and especially allows access to simulations ???

It is speculative ... but it is possible!


To get there, here is a ladle scenario:

Year 1 - target -10%
- start of conversion of 10% of agricultural land into organic,
- floor price of € 1,75 per liter for diesel / petrol
- maximum speed reduced to 100 km on motorway
- training of all the unemployed in the thermal renovation trades (from the production of insulation to the laying trades)
- air traffic pays TICPE

Year 2 - target -19%
- 10% more agricultural land in organic
- floor price of € 2 per liter for diesel / petrol
- maximum speed reduced to 80 km on motorway
- at least 500 isolated dwellings
- x2 on the price of air transport

Year 3 - target -27%
- 10% more agricultural land in organic
- floor price of € 2,5 per liter for diesel / petrol
- ban on non-recyclable plastic bottles
- 18 ° C max in the accommodation
- 25 ° C min when air conditioning
- at least 1 million isolated dwellings

Year 4 - target -34%
- 10% more agricultural land in organic
- floor price of € 3 per liter for diesel / petrol
- ban on plastic packaging
- tax on km traveled
- tax assistance for the premises
- new x2 on the price of air transport
- at least 2 million isolated dwellings

I continue?????

We can clearly see that it is not tenable outside a major crisis (in clear collapse)
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