Climate change linked to the rise of natural disasters
PARIS - Droughts, floods, cyclones and fires: climate disasters have become both more frequent and more intense as a result of global warming, and the trend is likely to worsen, warns a report by the UN on climate.
Admittedly, the impact of global warming on such events depends on their very unequal nature and distribution between the different regions of the world. And the level of confidence in the forecasts made by the specialists varies according to the quantity and quality of the data available.
But the hundreds of scientists who have written this report for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), which AFP has obtained a copy, are formal: the extreme weather events will be generally more marked and more frequent in decades ahead, resulting in increased dangers for most people on our planet.
This is the biggest effort ever made to evaluate how extremes are changing, says Neville Nicholls, a professor at Monash University in Melbourne and coordinator of one of the chapters of this progress report, who can still to be revised by the UN at a meeting in Kampala, before its publication, scheduled for November 18.
A publication that coincides with a series of devastating natural disasters causing many questions and concerns.
In 2010, record temperatures favored forest fires in Siberia, while Pakistan and India experienced unprecedented floods.
This year, the United States has also recorded a record number of disasters, from the floods of Mississippi and Missouri to Hurricane Irene, through the terrible drought that currently affects Texas.
In China, entire regions are also experiencing intense droughts while at the same time torrential rains are ravaging Central America and Thailand.
Weather aberrations or global warming?
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Are these only temporary weather aberrations or rather profound and long-lasting consequences of global warming?
Most of these events are in any case closely related to the consequences of global warming induced by human activities as predicted by scientists: rising temperatures, water content of the atmosphere and temperature at the ocean surface. All of these factors are conducive to extreme weather events.
According to the report, which relies on hundreds of studies published in recent years, it is virtually certain, at 99% or 100%, that the frequency and magnitude of daily heat records will increase at the scale of planet during the nineteenth century.
It is also very likely (90% at 100%) that the duration, frequency and / or intensity of heat waves and heat waves will continue to increase in most areas.
The temperature peaks are probably (66% at 100% certainty) increase compared to the end of the 20th century, up to 3 ° C by 2050 and up to 5 ° C by 2100.
Many areas, especially the tropics and high latitudes, will probably experience more intense rainfall and snowfall. At the same time, droughts will worsen in other parts of the world, particularly in the Mediterranean, Central Europe, North America, North-East Brazil and Southern Africa.
Rising sea levels and temperature are also likely to make cyclones more destructive, while melting glaciers and permafrost, combined with higher precipitation, may trigger more landslides, says the IPCC.
Source: http://www.romandie.com/news/n/_Le_chan ... 111211.asp
