Climate: key climate sensitivity

[sherkanner]

A small file to try to understand the key elements and their influence in the climatic disturbance. (I have not read everything yet)

http://www.futura-sciences.com/fr/doc/t ... c3/221/p1/

[Christophe]

Super folder, not yet read either.

"Everything" is linked in terms of climate!

Conclusion (tentative according to the author I like because it puts a lot of uncertainties ...):

What can be concluded from feedback models and studies? Will warming continue? Here is what we can say, at the moment.

Global warming: the climate will be warmer

Greenhouse gas emissions do not decrease, on the contrary: since 1990, annual emissions have increased by 37%. From 2000 to 2008, they have, on average, increased by 3% each year. The economic crisis caused a slowdown in 2009 but the growth in 2010 is greater than 3% (see Figure 6).

In these conditions, the warming will continue with ups and downs linked to the non-linearities of the couplings between the ocean, the atmosphere, the cryosphere and the biosphere essentially, but except for wagering on the rapid depletion of all fossil energy reserves, the general trend can only be towards a global warmer climate. How many degrees? It depends mainly on climate feedbacks. We have just seen that many of the known (but not all) feedbacks were positive. It is not excluded that complex feedbacks involving water vapor and tropical convection may temper more or less strongly the warming to waitbut the proof of the very existence of these feedbacks remains to be found. The amplitude of these possible negative feedbacks is obviously still unknown. Finally, apart from convective clouds, there was no mention here of cloudy feedback. This topic alone deserves another issue to come.

Acknowledgments: For feedback from CO2, I have benefited greatly from the help of Yves Dandonneau, former Deputy Director of Locean and member of the JGOFS Scientific Committee (Joint Global Ocean Flux Study).

[dedeleco]

This file is interesting, revealing the essential effects with their uncertainties, basic effects to keep in the brainbut too complex for a quantitative simulation of the past climate.

Simulations of the Earth's climate are not credible because it is a chaotic, hypercomplex system and therefore they remain full of errors, whatever the level of their complexity, with ad hoc hypotheses.

These simulations are unable to reconstruct the real past climate observed as in the figure below on 5 millions of years ago, especially the increasing instability of this climate over the last million years, clearly visible.

The effect of CO2 should be magnified, otherwise it would be low at the current level, compared to the effect of water vapor.
The instability observed actually proves this amplification with the CO2 at the base of the last deglaciation:
https://www.econologie.com/forums/post230102.html#230102

The climate of the earth is more and more unstable over the last million years (fundamental image to keep in the brain which notes this instability with the amplification of the least effect like that of CO2):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age



Read all these very informative links:
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histoire_du_climat
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klimageschichte
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carotte_de_glace
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glaciation[/ Quote]