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Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
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Flytox
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by Flytox » 16/07/08, 12:59

It's like Lagardère, if I do not go to the coast, it's the rating that comes to me ..... In Bangladesh it's an exodus of tens of millions of people ...... not to mention all the islands that will be engulfed and amplify the phenomenon ..... the wars will resume sooner than expected there or elsewhere ..... : Shock: : Evil:
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Remundo
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by Remundo » 16/07/08, 13:12

Hi Jumpy,
Jumpy wrote:@remundo

I'm sorry, but it's not for 2100 remundo
I give you a hint
Senior executives from the CNES (National Center for Space Studies) have openly criticized weather climatologists in France and the IPCC forecasts before a reporting team!

Never has one administration openly criticized another, especially on such sensitive and complex subjects. But you should know that CNES participates in the calculations of the aforesaid climatologists by providing data, ground stations, etc. They therefore have a "reliable" vision and for more than 20 years that they have been doing this, they have known what we are talking about.

short, CNES: for the oceans, + 3 minimum meters before 2045 / at least 2 ° before 2045 and probably much more and much earlier.

Maybe ... I was talking about big changes for 2100. All of this will happen gradually and in the coming decades, as you explain very well.

The terrestrial system has great inertia, so the disaster is not for 2010 nor 2020.

As for the quarrels of chapels between CNES, Météo France, and the IPCC, I do not think about it. I am not even competent to know if they are founded or not.

On the other hand, my intuition tells me that apart from the proven tendency towards global warming, all these specialists do not know how to predict precisely what will happen, and this is not a criticism, because the task goes beyond the most eminent specialists because:
- it is too transdisciplinary,
- it requires the collection of gigantic amounts of data,
- we only know very roughly the climate model which governs the Earth, a lot of loopings (the "feedbacks") and physical, chemical, and biological couplings, most of which are unknown to us ...
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by yannko » 12/12/08, 22:00

I read often and I hear consistently that we do not think about future generations. But even without it, and even more before that, what legitimacy is it to consider only the future, the remainder or what will happen to the whole planet + the wrecks in orbit around, by not having to mind that the prosperity of his own kind? If luck is there to save anything, it is certainly with future generations, for 2 reasons:
1-The Earth is already more than overpopulated right?
2-In this part of "future generations", how many will they even be concerned by their own future generations?

So to invoke this argument wrongly through, personally (important to specify : Mrgreen: ), I think we are just deflecting the problem, and fall back on an aspect just as selfish (his kids, their future comfort, at what price?).

Just my cents 2 : Mrgreen: !
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Jumpy
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by Jumpy » 30/03/09, 11:45

Remundo wrote:
...
The terrestrial system has great inertia, so the disaster is not for 2010 nor 2020.
...



Yes and no for inertia. If the ice of the South Pole slides in the water faster than expected, the level of the oceans will rise in a few years and not over a century or two.
I wrote slides and not bottom. huge nuance.

at an increase of 50/80 cm, a department like the North (among others, moors, camargue and a few others are concerned) will see a large percentage of its surface become impossible to inhabit => internal climatic migration of 1 million people?
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by Capt_Maloche » 30/03/09, 11:51

and remember that absolutely all consumer products are energy-related (manufacturing, transportation, packaging and so on)

10% of variation, it is indirectly all consumer products that reflect the rise (a little less in France for plants that run at Nuke)

long live the solar 8) and long live France :D
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by Christophe » 30/03/09, 12:01

The rise of the oceans following the collapse of the sea ice does not scare me at all ... at least for "us", the Europeans

We will be much less affected by the level of the oceans than by the variations of the Gulf Stream heat pump whose thermal power is equivalent to 1 million nuclear reactor (we have about 500 reactors in the world in operation)

The collapse of the ice floes precisely influences the Gulf Stream (dilution of salt water -> change in density -> decrease in sea currents)

A documentary explains the problem here: Gulf Stream the Achilles heel of the Climate.

Edit: shit daily has just uploaded the video, too bad ...
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Jumpy
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by Jumpy » 30/03/09, 12:18

not afraid ?
me if, in total disorder ::
- Millions of people in the countries concerned will die for lack of food. Live on CNN, France TV etc.
- their countries risk wars to obtain supplies
- European economies, "we" depend on imports from these countries - we will have to adapt our lives to this absence
- prices will flare: purchasing power in free fall, unemployment rising ...

more generally, as Hulot himself says, citing a researcher :: "savage" populations => wars, civil or intercountry etc.

to leave a world of extreme violence for one or two century to my children ???
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by Capt_Maloche » 30/03/09, 12:38

Well, if we came to this type of end, we will have to take out our Joker

Let me explain: money is a false problem, because if you have to turn the board for a percentage of GDP to maintain wages and the standard of living of employees, it is sufficient that other countries agree to rotate their billboard at the same% so that there is no devaluation of currency

I repeat, the relativistic economy of today no longer makes sense on a world scale, it was used for development during war periods (cold or hot :D ), we must now evolve it for the good of all the inhabitants of this world

One currency devalues ​​only in relation to another, yet it is simple the economy 8)

-------------------------------------------------- ------------

This means secondly to regulate demography and globalize resources, and I am not sure of the means that will be implemented by the "big boys" of this world to achieve this end.
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by Christophe » 30/03/09, 12:46

I like your listing Jumpy because it's not the future but the present see the past.

- people are already dying of hunger thirst in the world: 100 times more than AIDS approximately ... the warming is already there for something but much less than the "system".

- resource wars are as old as capitalism

Two "old" news:
https://www.econologie.com/les-guerres-d ... e-269.html
https://www.econologie.com/les-guerres-d ... e-314.html

That I dug up some site archives


- prices that flambé, lower purchasing power: we are in full in no? Except that there is big cheating on the part of industrialists: the price of copper has, for example, been divided by 3 in 6 months ... not the public prices!

Jumpy wrote:- European economies, "we" depend on imports from these countries - we will have to adapt our lives to this absence


Good point: it floats an oil rig? : Mrgreen:

More "seriously": if the main oil-producing countries were more threatened by global warming, do you think the situation would be different?

Not me.

What is the difference, from a human point of view and wealth, between an uninhabitable desert at 50 ° C or an uninhabitable desert at 60 ° C? Frankly not much ...

Capt_Maloche wrote:One currency devalues ​​only in relation to another, yet it is simple the economy 8)


It is for this (and the rest) that I more and more want to reason in terms of not money but "human hours of work" ...

Examples:
How much is this car?

With your hourly wage and your savings capacity, it will cost you 3659 hours of work. If you take our "exceptional rate" credit offer, it will cost you 4212 hours of work.


: Mrgreen:
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Jumpy
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by Jumpy » 30/03/09, 14:15

"people are already dying of hunger and thirst in the world: 100 times more ... than the 'system'."
850 million people are malnourished. How much is it with a rise of a few tens of cm? double, triple, plus? What are the countries concerned? a war on their neighbor to appropriate their water, their crops / land.

Yes of course we have already seen that. on a smaller scale in size. Just open a story book.

"Does an oil rig float?"
I did not even talk about oil. Just the rest: livestock feed, multiple ores of all kinds to produce many metals essential to our economies. There will be less because of the rise of waters likely in the near years so much more expensive even, a total absence of some supplies

"... currency / devaluation ..." uh no there is a wrong path. What is the value of a product using a metal or other whose price climbs by 1000% / year? What becomes of the linked economic chain? How do consumers do. what happens to the workers concerned? etc.

No matter the answers, this is not the subject of my post, the subject is: slow down and stop the change very quickly.

The discussion, I recall, started from "but no, we have a century ahead of us" and that I answered: "no, less than 10 years before the start of the big pips and the first cm / year"
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