Gulf Stream and cold snap in Europe: measurements and studies!

Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 72663
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 8087

Gulf Stream and cold snap in Europe: measurements and studies!




by Christophe » 21/12/10, 16:53

We mentioned here the problem of the Gulf Stream and the current cold wave in Europe: climate-change-co2 / paris-in-the-snow snow snow-t10248.html

Pierre Langlois has explored the subject and gives you his "discoveries", not very encouraging (given the stakes, do not count on the mass media to inform us on this subject) ...

Bonjour à tous

Normally I hesitate to distribute the kind of information contained in this email, which is not officially confirmed. Especially since the subject does not touch directly on transport or energy, except perhaps to demonstrate how much we are playing the sorcerer's apprentice with the exploitation of petroleum in deep water.

But in this case, the gravity of the potential consequences of a significant slowdown in the Gulf Stream and the evidence that accumulates on the sudden and significant cooling of Europe, for more than a month, tips the scales. to submit the following to you. However, I keep a reservation as to the accuracy and the real impact of the information, as long as more official confirmations are not available. But, you will understand that if the information is correct, the gravity of the potential consequences is enough to make the authorities hesitate to disclose the information. Widespread panic could ensue and make things more difficult to manage.

If the North of France and the Great Betagne had to end up with winters like in Quebec, in the space of a few years or even a generation, it would be a catastrophic situation for several reasons. First of all, these countries, at normally mild temperatures, are not equipped to clear snow if it fell in large quantities throughout the winter. Second, their water pipes are not buried 6 feet underground, as here, and are closer to the surface. We could therefore expect breakages everywhere, and drinking water could become difficult to access for millions of people. On the other hand, agriculture in these countries would be disrupted and one would expect lower crops and food shortages ...

But what is the Gulf Stream?

The Gulf Stream is a sea current of warm water circulating in the North Atlantic Ocean. It brings warm tropical water from the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico to northern Europe. It is thanks to this current that Paris, which is further north than Quebec City, has practically no snowfall in winter (normally). Great Britain and the Scandinavian countries also benefit from a milder climate. It is the prevailing winds from West to East, to the latitudes of North Europe, which bring the warmth of the Gulf Stream to warm the North West of this continent.

The Gulf Stream would have stopped several times in the past following sudden warming of the temperature, causing a Siberian cold in Great Britain and in the North of France, not to mention the Scandinavian countries. Scientists are increasingly understanding the phenomenon. Warming causes significant ice melting in the Arctic, pushing more fresh water to the sea, which eventually stops the Gulf Stream, preventing water from this ocean current from diving to the bottom of the ocean . In fact, along its course on the surface of the Atlantic Ocean, the water of the Gulf Stream increases its salinity by evaporation and becomes denser as it cools in the North Atlantic, until it stalls at bottom of the ocean and return to the South, via the bottom of the ocean. However, fresh water, by decreasing the salinity of the water and therefore its density, gradually prevents the water of the Gulf Stream from stalling and slows down or blocks the mechanism that allows the Gulf Stream to function. All this is well explained in the documentary “Europe without Gulf Stream!”, Produced in 2007, which you can watch for free at http://www.wat.tv/video/europe-sans-gul ... heu9_.html

In this documentary, we argue that global warming, caused in large part by our greenhouse gas emissions, could well stop the Gulf Stream by the end of the century, via the mechanism I have just outlined. In addition, it also mentions that the Gulf Stream has slowed significantly since the 1990s. This slowdown was measured by researchers at the National Oceanography Center in Southampton, in the United Kingdom, who published the results of their research in 2005, attesting that the flow of the Gulf Stream would have decreased by 30% since 1992. See the article in the journal "New Scientist" at http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn8 ... e-age.html

The 2010 summer oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico would have altered the Gulf Stream

The Gulf Stream takes its name from the fact that the current comes from the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the Gulf Stream is only part of a network of ocean currents that circumnavigate the globe. In the Atlantic Ocean, the global current runs along the coast of South America, to rush into the Gulf of Mexico, make a loop where the water heats up, and come out again in the south of Florida to go up in the North Atlantic to the North West of Europe. The loop in the Gulf is, so to speak, an important part of the Gulf Stream water heating system. Here is an illustration from the documentary mentioned above, which illustrates the course of the Gulf Stream.

Image

However, at the end of July 2010, Gianluigi Zangari, an Italian researcher who studies, among other things, the Gulf Stream, and works at the National Institute of Nuclear Physics (INFN), realizes from satellite maps that the loop of the Gulf Stream in the Gulf of Mexico has closed in on itself, and contributes much less to warming the current which will normally soften the winters of Western Europe. We can visualize this worrying situation in the following maps which he publishes in an online note (entitled "RISK OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE BY BP OIL SPILL") on the website of the Italian Geophysical Association. To download this note, go to the page

http://www.associazionegeofisica.it/Notiziario.html

in the AGI - NEWS section

Image

To understand what is going on, you can go and look for the previous maps on the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research (CCAR) site at the page: http://argo.colorado.edu/~realtime/welcome/


On these maps, we can see that the water path from the Gulf Stream to the Gulf of Mexico was much longer, which allows, in principle, to accumulate more heat to send it to the North West of the 'Europe.

Image

The Italian researcher, Mr. Zangari, makes the link between the disruption of water circulation in the Gulf and the gigantic oil spill last summer. Because 80% of the oil spilled leaked into the Gulf after millions of gallons of dispersants were spilled. This submarine oil which is found between two waters could, according to him, have modified the circulation of the Gulf Stream in the Gulf.

It is difficult to say if this disturbance is only transient, if it risks repeating itself regularly, or if it could persist for decades possibly, or even worsen. But one thing is certain, it reduced the tropical heat transfer to the North Atlantic, and also affected the Jet Stream, this air current at high altitude which significantly influences the climate.

Scientists from Eastern Europe, meanwhile, predict the coldest winter in Europe for 1000 years, due to a 50% decrease in the Gulf Stream in recent years. At least that's what journalists of Russia Today (RT) reported on October 4. This continuous news channel, launched in December 2005, broadcasts in English. See the report at http://rt.com/news/prime-time/coldest-w ... -measures/

Looking at the cold and snowstorms that have been raging in Europe for a month, we have the right to wonder if there is really not something wrong with the Gulf Stream.

Hopefully this is only temporary, because I dare not imagine what would happen in the event of a possible shutdown of the Gulf Stream, as has happened many times in the past.

I would ask you not to ask me questions about this thorny subject, because I am not an expert. You can do your own research, if you want to know more, and draw your own conclusions.

Sincerely

Pierre Langlois, Ph.D.
Physicist: consultant / author
Site Internet: http://www.planglois-pca.com


Sorry to have spoiled the day :| :| :| :|
0 x
Do a image search or an text search - Netiquette of forum - Support the forum doing Useful shopping

Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 72663
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 8087




by Christophe » 21/12/10, 17:51

Small estimate to get an idea of ​​the power of the Gulf Stream: in summer 1m² in the tropics receives about 2 kW of solar irradiation during the day and therefore:

100 m² = 200 kW
1 ha = 10 m² = 000 kW = 20 MW
1 km² = 100 ha = 2000 MW = 2 times the electrical power converted into heat of a nuclear reactor ...

Over 24 hours we have on average in the tropics roughly half the power, ie 1000W / m² and therefore 1 km² gives the same electrical power converted into heat from a nuclear reactor.

I had read / calculated a few years ago that the thermal power of the Gulf Stream was equivalent to 1 million nuclear reactors.

This is perfectly consistent with this approach: a solar collection surface in the tropics of one million km² is enough, i.e. a square of 1000 km on the side to provide this power ...

However, the Gulf of Mexico covers more than 1 million km²:

Image

Precisely: http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golfe_du_Mexique

The Gulf of Mexico is a Gulf of the Atlantic Ocean, located southeast of North America. It covers an area of ​​1 km².


Obviously the gulf stream does not pump 100% of the irradiated solar power but it also sweeps a much wider area ...
0 x
Do a image search or an text search - Netiquette of forum - Support the forum doing Useful shopping
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 72663
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 8087




by Christophe » 21/12/10, 17:58

Here is a backup of the document from the Italian site from which the satellite maps are taken: https://www.econologie.info/share/partag ... qAHZnb.pdf

As of today the situation has deteriorated up to the point in which the eddy has detached itself completely from the main stream therefore destroying completely the Loop Current, as in figure 2 below, dated June 12th 2010.


Frankly disturbing ... :| :| :|
Last edited by Christophe the 21 / 12 / 10, 18: 05, 1 edited once.
0 x
Do a image search or an text search - Netiquette of forum - Support the forum doing Useful shopping
User avatar
Remundo
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 13065
Registration: 15/10/07, 16:05
Location: Clermont Ferrand
x 3401




by Remundo » 21/12/10, 18:05

Thank you Christophe for all these links ...

We have known for a long time that global warming necessarily has an influence on thermohaline circulation of which the Gulf Stream is one of the manifestations ...

Because global warming, which we should call more rigorously climate change, acts at the same time
1) on the salinity of the waters (via melting ice, snow or permafrost)
2) and of course the temperatures.

However, these are the two motors of sea currents.

These currents are temperature "homogenizers". If they come to weaken, a fortiori disappear, entire areas will be overheated and others completely refrigerated, especially Western Europe ...

@+
0 x
ImageImage
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 72663
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 8087




by Christophe » 21/12/10, 18:10

Yes Remundo but we are more at this level of analysis ... here we are talking about breaking gulf stream!

If indeed, as shown in the .pdf https://www.econologie.info/share/partag ... qAHZnb.pdf (look at it ... it's really disturbing) "on" (the oil spill) has modified the loop in the Gulf of Mexico, it will ladly miss 50% of the thermal power of the gulf stream ... well we will curdle them for a while ...

I never thought that the Mexican oil spill could have such a dramatic consequence: the rotten August that we had, at the same time as the Russian heat wave makes fear the worst ... and not a meteorologist for the tell on TV? It's a joke ...Why is TV not talking about it?

I hope to dramatize for nothing ...

If not to return to the thermal power of the GS, Remundo, between 500 and 000 nuclear reactors, do you validate these figures?

ps: how much is the m² in sub-Saharan zone? : Mrgreen:
0 x
Do a image search or an text search - Netiquette of forum - Support the forum doing Useful shopping

User avatar
Remundo
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 13065
Registration: 15/10/07, 16:05
Location: Clermont Ferrand
x 3401




by Remundo » 21/12/10, 18:31

I saw all that, but I don't think that the oil from this oil spill so strongly influences the gulf stream which is a much larger phenomenon geographically and temporally.

The main problem with the gulf stream is that the Arctic starts to melt a lot: fresh water lowers the salinity, and therefore the water dives less to the bottom of the ocean.

On this point, when we observe the heavy trends in ice floes or the unprecedented thaw of permafrost, we have nothing to be reassured ...

Then, locally, there can be inversions and fluctuations in the trajectories of gulf: we are facing a phenomenon of fluid mechanics turbulent and semi-chaotic... moreover, that's why a few more ° C can radically change its behavior, with violent oscillations ...
Last edited by Remundo the 21 / 12 / 10, 18: 35, 1 edited once.
0 x
ImageImage
User avatar
Remundo
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 13065
Registration: 15/10/07, 16:05
Location: Clermont Ferrand
x 3401




by Remundo » 21/12/10, 18:33

For solar power, in the Saharan zone, it is 300 W / m² in time average.

See bottom of this page
0 x
ImageImage
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 72663
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 8087




by Christophe » 21/12/10, 18:35

According to the docs, it is not so much petroleum as chemical dispersants ... Now, we can think (hope) that they have altered the perception of satellite measurements more than current ...

For the font this is what is said in the 2005 study: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn8 ... e-age.html

Already 30% less since 1990 + the "tip" of the Gulf of Mexico = ... how many hundreds of thousands of nuclear reactors are equivalent less?
0 x
Do a image search or an text search - Netiquette of forum - Support the forum doing Useful shopping
Christophe
Moderator
Moderator
posts: 72663
Registration: 10/02/03, 14:06
Location: Greenhouse planet
x 8087




by Christophe » 21/12/10, 18:39

Remundo wrote:For solar power, in the Saharan zone, it is 300 W / m² in time average.

See bottom of this page


Uh ok but what is the source and more precise legend of the image?

350W / m², it seems to me low since in the tropics the sun is almost all the time close to Zenith and it falls very quickly ... but hey if it is noted I believe :)
0 x
Do a image search or an text search - Netiquette of forum - Support the forum doing Useful shopping
dedeleco
Econologue expert
Econologue expert
posts: 9211
Registration: 16/01/10, 01:19
x 7




by dedeleco » 21/12/10, 18:53

I must find you a very serious article in Nature which shows that the gulf stream is only a third of the air currents from the atmosphere coming from the southwest and guided by the American rockies !!!!
The debate is not over until the next glaciation or the gulstream was turning in the opposite direction as it was 20000 years ago !!!!! !!!

Some serious readings on the climate past:
http://people.rses.anu.edu.au/roberts_a ... 202009.pdf
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/3/0394/97545
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 120605.htm
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/01/s ... t-ice-age/
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_o ... archtype=a
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 120605.htm
0 x


 


  • Similar topics
    Replies
    views
    Last message

Back to "Climate Change: CO2, warming, greenhouse effect ..."

Who is online ?

Users browsing this forum : No registered users and 40 guests