Gulf Stream and cold snap in Europe: measurements and studies!

[Christophe]

Another "explanation":

Global warming: cold winters are proof

Make no mistake, the harsh winters of recent years are indeed demonstrations of global warming. No offense to climate skeptics, these cold spells are only temporary and will give way to ever warmer summers. In question: the melting of the icecap that no longer repels the sun's rays. Explanations ...


The global rise in temperatures recorded worldwide over the last thirty decades has resulted in a melting of the icecap of the order of 20%. The ice can no longer repel the sun's rays, so the entire surface of the globe is warmed up. The air is warming, the sea is warming up. "So you have a big hot flow that goes back to the atmosphere and you do not have when everything is covered with ice. This is a huge change, "says Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research. And it's all the pressure system that goes to the water!

A very capricious solar activity

The polar air is pushed in the opposite direction of the clock and reaches Europe. A few polar winters follow, as we are living now. When, on the other hand, in Greenland, the temperatures in the middle of December are above zero degrees. "These anomalies could triple the probability of having extreme winters in Europe and North Asia," said physicist Vladimir Petukhov.

The decline in solar activity also partly explains the cold weather encountered in our regions in winter. The 24e cycle of the sun, expected for two years, is slow to appear. Planned every 11 years, this change of cycle is however not set like paper to music. But such a delay has prompted scientists to dwell on it. The current situation of solar activity, low winds, low light spectrum, disappearance and reappearance of sunspots, strongly reminds of the coldest periods of the Little Ice Age, especially between 1645 and 1715. This phenomenon would prevent hot air masses from reaching Europe.

Albane Wurtz

Source: http://www.developpementdurable.com/ins ... reuve.html

[Remundo]

yes, quite Christophe

remember that there is positive feedback (a phenomenon of self-amplification) between melting ice and solar energy capture.
This is related to albedo : ice has a strong albedo in the sense that it reflects the solar radiation, which, thus returned, heats little terrestrial matter.

On the other hand, the ocean, and even the emerged lands, have a weak albedo: they absorb much the light, degraded in heat in the water.

So :
the more the ice / ice shrinks, the greater the heat captured, and
the more heat is collected, the ice / ice is reduced, more .......

classic phenomenon of positive feedback (in simple language, a self-runaway) on climate change ...

[sen-no-sen]

Indeed Remundo, hence a risk of runaway and climate hysteresis still difficult to appreciate!

[Christophe]

Another article about the polar winds coming down in Europe because of the melting polar ice: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/environnement ... cueil_POS1

This may seem odd and yet, according to scientists, the harsh winters that have followed one another in Europe over the past decade are largely linked to global warming.

At first glance, the icy coldness that has hit Europe seems ill compatible with the average rise in temperatures expected by the end of the century, which could reach from 5 to 6 degrees.

To climate-skeptics who see evidence that climate change does not exist, some scientists say that these cold spells are a temporary cooling in global warming.

But, a new study goes further, and shows that the rise of the thermometer is precisely at the origin of these snowy and particularly cold winters.

The culprit would be the melting of the Arctic ice cap. The warming, two to three times above average, has resulted in its reduction of 20% these last 30 years. It could even disappear entirely during the summer months by the end of the century.

The sun's rays, which are no longer pushed back by the ice, warm the surface of the globe a little more at this point.

A sea without ice, and it is the entire system of pressures that is upset.

"Let's say that the ocean is at zero degrees," Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate scientist at the prestigious Potsdam Institute (Germany), told AFP on climate impact research.
(...)

Comments by P. Langlois:

This article relates a recently published study by the Potsdam Institute in Germany. A study that highlights another cooling mechanism in Europe caused by global warming. It is the disappearance of 20% approximately of the polar cap, since 30 years, which is the cause. Pack ice normally acts as an insulator between water and air in the Arctic. In places where the Arctic Ocean is in contact with the air, it is heated by water to zero degrees, because at this temperature it is much warmer than the air during the winter. This creates a zone of high pressure that pushes the Arctic Cold air towards the South, thus towards Northern Europe.

Decidedly, Europe seems in very bad climatic position!


Sincerely

Pierre Langlois, Ph.D.

Hey, the climate is anything but simple ... these morons of politics should start to seriously invest our cash in anti snow equipment for our security instead of making speculative calculations based on the so-called exceptionality of the event ...

Here are the snow records in Belgium: https://www.econologie.com/forums/post187811.html#187811

[dedeleco]

These are small normal fluctuations rather low compared to 1954 and 1956, coinciding with a solar minimum again and it is nothing like the small ice age of late Louis 14 where the cold was very strong, with famines, and the Thames turned into pack ice every year !!!!!

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petit_%C3%A2ge_glaciaire

The Little Ice Age concretely corresponds to a slight climatic cooling - of the order of less than 1 ° C. This decrease may seem small, but it was sufficient to provoke harsh winters and slow down human activities - especially agricultural production, especially in the 17th century. Historical or commercial archives, paintings of the time bear witness to harsh and snowy winters. In Savoie, even processions are organized in the hope of warding off the advance of the ice. The paroxysm of cold is reached between the years 1570 and 1730.
Under Louis XIV, the Seine freezes several times in the winter, and we are obliged in Paris to cut the wine from barrels with an ax. The winter 1709 is particularly frosty in France.
Some winters have remained infamous for the number of deaths recorded, due to intense cold and famine. Thus, under the reign of Louis XIV, the 1693 and 1694 years see almost two million deaths from the French crown

[Christophe]

Yes except for the small ice age:

a) it was exclusively due to non-anthropological reasons

b) currently nothing prevents to combine the 2: "our" responsibility (or rather that of an animal species) and natural causes and that, I believe, it's a first in geological history ! Unless the dinosaur farts could have caused a warming

c) What about the speed of the event? We are talking about a period of 160 years ...

In short, it may be much worse than the Little Ice Age in a few years ... or not ...

But let's not be so pessimistic: Mass extinctions are necessary for evolution

[Christophe]

Another article about the polar winds coming down in Europe because of the melting polar ice

Illustration of the phenomenon from: http://levif.rnews.be/fr/news/actualite ... 423792.htm

[FPLM]

Hello everybody
In the runaway effect, there is also another cumulative effect on ice melt (in addition to the decrease in albedo).
The rays reflected by the polar cap must cross again the atmospheric layer and thus heat this layer a second time. Then, around the ice, the temperature is warmer. The water, by changing phase (liquid-> solid) absorbs the surrounding cold and therefore increases the temperature of the surrounding air (cf: spraying water on the lemon tree but only around the lemons in case of frost protects them gel).
In comparison with the ice mass of the polar ice cap, the mass of air warmed by the pumping of the cold during the winter glaciation is colossal.
These are therefore much cooler air masses than before the melting ice that will sweep over northern Europe.
In addition, according to the latest paleoclimatology records that highlight the appearance of mini ice box during the interglacial, some have started in less than 10 years!
And yes, we now know that within the particularly stable and smooth interglacial we live, this equilibrium can be reversed in a decade without a correlation identified with a significant past event such as abnormal solar activity or a gigantic volcanic eruption. (The Icelandic eruption is harmless on this scale).
I have always preferred to listen to "alarmist" forecasts and until then, it is these forecasts which are closest to reality ...

[FPLM]

(next, to bounce back on Christophe's analysis)
As for the ecological catastrophe of BP in the Gulf of Mexico, its impact on the thermohaline circuit is undeniable. An oceanographer had also pointed out in Washington Post at the time of the accident but this article was quickly drowned in the media flow.
For me, BP's attitude is criminal, the dispersant (emulsifier) ​​used is a non-biodegradable toxic product that has been used en masse only to "hide" the leak and minimize the scale of the disaster to the media. This product (Corexit 9500) contains 30% sulfonic acid salts ( http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acide_sulfonique ). In BP's Spill Response Plan, the part that discusses the use of this product says it is flammable and irritating to the skin and mucous membranes!

The result: while floating, a large part of the oil was (at great expense) recoverable, since immiscible in water, its dissolution dispersed it and dragged it into the heart of the thermohaline circuit. The resulting consequences are unknown but certainly damaging to the gulf stream.
It was for this reason that I had rebelled here, and then elsewhere (wwf, grennpeace, avaaz, foundation nicolas hulot and friends of the earth), without ever being heard.
https://www.econologie.com/forums/demande-de-liquidation-de-bp-qu-en-pensez-vous-t9777-20.html

Today what is it?
The hypothesis of the slowdown of the gulf stream is no longer one. The impact of BP's irresponsibility on it is a serious one.
BP, and the others continue these dangerous activities with impunity ... It even seems (according to greenpeace) that an English oil company inexperienced in offshore drilling would have been granted a drilling contract in the north of England .
And since 2 years, the melting of the cap having opened waterways and access to the last oil reserves of the world, the USA, Denmark, Russia and Canada would dispute this last piece of cake.
So, to be optimistic now is either to be egocentric and inhuman, or completely stupid ...
http://img49.xooimage.com/files/0/9/9/untitled-1bc4c5b.png
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glaciation

[dedeleco]

We seem to have left for a cold winter, hopefully it will not be like in 1954 and 1956, with more than 15 days below -15 ° C worthy of Russia in Moscow in February, the cold anticyclone announces us !!

But with much more (10 100 times more) of cars, trucks, planes, we are much less resistant !!

For no accidents, do not follow too closely in front of you, or strong brakes, and if it slips, release the brake, to stop twice faster and anticipate!