Climate Simulator of Science and Life

Warming and Climate Change: causes, consequences, analysis ... Debate on CO2 and other greenhouse gas.
Christophe
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Climate Simulator of Science and Life




by Christophe » 26/10/07, 11:03

Everything in the title is supposed to simulate global warming in France http://climat.science-et-vie.com/carte/carte.php

I say "supposed" because I don't think the calculations took into account ... uncertainties such as the Gulf Stream ...
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Grumberg
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by Grumberg » 05/11/07, 20:23

The model is a simulation model of Météo France on the end of the century, according to a specific scenario. It is simply a value of example: it is impossible to predict how it will unfold. However, in terms of simulation, it's the top, I certify it. And its scientific rigor is absolutely not in question (again, all the data come from Météo France, we only did the staging).

You are really upset against Sc & Vie, say so!
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the_clansman
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And hop a little pub!




by the_clansman » 05/11/07, 21:17

And hop, I bounce again: I strongly advise you but then hyper-strongly reading the special issue special climate currently in the kiosks!

It is definitely worth its weight of peanuts: in 162p (ah, as it does good good pagination!), It explains all the ins and outs of the current research on the climate as well as the threats and associated stakes ...

And now a little pique against S&V (after all, there is no reason that it is always the same who complain;)): I appreciated that very moderately that the Special Aviation of this year is edited in 'Special Edition 'and not in' Special '(suddenly, I had to buy it in newsstands and, in addition, the format is not the same, I cannot store this number next to its colleagues which come out every two years ...): And knock : Cheesy:
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Grumberg
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by Grumberg » 05/11/07, 21:30

Yeah, we were blamed for it ... Me too that made me feel sick. I collect these HS Aviation since I'm a kid (I bought my first number in 1973 ...).
But I can not criticize this decision that was taken for reasons that escape me (except one: we have the right to release only 4 HS per year and 2 special HSs being devoted now to issues of actu , aviation, which is a regular meeting, becomes a Special, Am I clear?).
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the_clansman
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by the_clansman » 05/11/07, 21:50

Yeah, we were blamed for it ... Me too that made me feel sick. I collect these HS Aviation since I'm a kid (I bought my first number in 1973 ...).
But I can not criticize this decision that was taken for reasons that escape me (except one: we have the right to release only 4 HS per year and 2 special HSs being devoted now to issues of actu , aviation, which is a regular meeting, becomes a Special, Am I clear?).


Bof;) The number 'Aviations' is also news at this time :? And, it seems to me, all the specials are not relative to regular meetings ... In short, I would have rather seen the HS on the extra-solar planets become a special (the discovery of extra-solar planets being quite good followed by your publication) to keep the aviation number in HS ...

But hey, it does not matter: it will just be that I am very attentive, every two years to not miss what remains one of the pearls of the publication;) I will recover and it is not this little incident that will make me stop my subscription ... unlike others (follow my look;)).

Otherwise, I had a reproach to make to one of the recent articles but I do not remember which: I go for this step to my old numbers and I come back bother you: Arf! You are not lying down;)
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Grumberg
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by Grumberg » 05/11/07, 21:53

Well no, not lying down and not close to being. I work ... on a new special issue!

Note that to respond to forum ruin not bad my productivity ...
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Christophe
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by Christophe » 05/11/07, 21:55

Grumberg wrote:The model is a simulation model of Météo France on the end of the century, according to a specific scenario. (...)
You are really upset against Sc & Vie, say so!


: Cheesy:

It has nothing at all personal against S&V ... besides I even made a news to present this "project" https://www.econologie.com/sciences-et-v ... -3515.html

Moreover this subject was done before my reading of the pantone article ...

Nevertheless, it is because it is S&V precisely that it would have been desirable to provide some explanations on the probability of these figures being achieved ... a bit like Meteo France does with its famous "confidence index". ..
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Grumberg
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by Grumberg » 05/11/07, 21:58

Look closely, but I think the explanations are there (I do not remember, I looked at the beginning and I moved on to something else). Note that these data were used to develop the table of seasons published last March in the monthly.
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by Christophe » 05/11/07, 22:05

Explanations yes but no "crazy guards" saying that it could be the opposite of a warming in Europe if the gulf stream stopped ... necessarily it would lose all its credibility to the tool ...

The gulf stream has a thermal power estimated at about 1 000 000 nuclear reactors ...

But let's move on ... it's good to talk about global warming, but talking about solutions that are quickly applicable in the current econo-technological context is still better ...
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Grumberg
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by Grumberg » 05/11/07, 22:08

The climatos say that a shutdown of the Gulf Stream is quite improbable. We recently published on this in Sc & Vie.
But you're right to point out that this is a textbook case: it's not at all obvious that it will look like that. Alas, chances are it will be worse ...
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