hold, I even suspect that annual CO2 emissions will continue or even grow over the next 2 years.
The super typhoon Mangkhut is 3 times more powerful than hurricane Florence
https://www.rtbf.be/info/societe/detail ... d=10019798
Mangkhut: super typhoon of 5 / 5 category
It is touted as the most powerful tropical cyclone of the year. And for good reason, in the most affected areas of the Philippines, the winds generated by the typhoon Mangkhut have reached a speed up to 330 km / h. And that a few hours after Hurricane Florence hit the east coast of the USA at 110 km / h. With a diameter of 1.400 km, Mangkhut involved, in its direct trajectory, no less than 5 million people, mainly in rural and agricultural areas. These are makeshift dwellings that have been blown up, especially in the northern Philippines, where Luzon, the largest island in the archipelago, has been deprived of power. At present, the authorities have recorded the deaths of 4 people in the Philippines and Taiwan, victims of the run-off of hillsides and major waves that have swept through the populated areas. Impressive floods run down the streets and several houses are flooded.
How we lost the fight against climate change
The "New York Times" has just published a very long survey to account for procrastination on the US side that prevented the emergence of strong measures to reduce carbon emissions when there was still time, between 1979 and 1989. A captivating story praised in the scientific community, a page in our universal history of which here are the main lines
Fires in Europe will get worse even if climate goals are met
Achieving the most optimistic objectives of the Paris climate agreement will not prevent the areas devastated each year by fires in southern Europe from growing by at least 40% by 2100, Tuesday warned researchers.
After two years of deadly forest fires in Greece, Portugal, Spain, southern France and Italy, scientists at the University of Barcelona say more woodland could be ravaged by flames in the future, especially if the objectives set by the 2015 Paris Agreement are not respected.
With this agreement, the international community has pledged to act to limit the warming of the average temperature of the Earth below the limit of + 2 ° C compared to the level before the Industrial Revolution, and if possible 1,5 ° C.
In the first study of its kind, the researchers looked at how far the fires would become worse in these four Mediterranean countries at + 1,5 ° C, + 2 ° C or + 3 ° C by the end of the century, at the end of the century. computer modeling systems.
"This is relevant because there are a lot of fires in this area, for example in Greece this year or the previous summer in Portugal," says Marco Turco, who led the study.
The area affected by fires in southern Europe could increase from 40 to 54% if the increase in average temperature is limited to 1,5 ° C. In case of an increase of 2 ° C, the areas destroyed by fire would increase from 62 to 87% and up to 187% if the thermometer climbs by 3 ° C.
Currently, southern Europe loses about 4.500 km2 a year because of forest fires.
In July, about 100 people died in the fire that ravaged the seaside resort of Mati, in the suburbs of Athens. In June 2017, 64 people died in the fire that broke out in the municipality of Pedrogao Grande, 190 km north of Lisbon.
The victory for the climate is still possible
THE CIRCLE / POINT OF VIEW - Limiting global temperatures to 1,5 degree is the only way to achieve social justice while protecting our environment. And contrary to popular belief, this is not an impossible goal.
According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world's leading scientific authority on climate change, it is still possible to prevent global temperatures from rising by more than 1,5 ° C above pre-industrial levels. The IPCC position represents a step towards this form of "radical realism" that many civil society actors have long advocated.
To combat global warming, the IPCC is not relying on geoengineering proposals - such as sequestration of huge amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the depths of the oceans, or "sunscreen" by aerosol spraying in the atmosphere. It focuses more on how we could first avoid exceeding the 1,5 ° C threshold. According to the group, we need to immediately decarbonize the global economy, to reduce CO45 emissions by about 2% by 2030, and to reduce net emissions by 2050 to zero.
Achieving these goals will not only require a transformation of economic activity, but also that we face the destructive power dynamics and social inequalities head-on. A new anthology published by the Heinrich Böll Foundation, entitled "Radical Realism for Climate Justice", outlines the strategies developed by international social movements and civil society to produce this change.
Make energy a public good
We urgently need to make a politically managed reduction in fossil fuel production. This involves getting off the hook in oil, gas and coal exploration and production. As Oil Change International explains, there is no question of a sudden or hasty action to "suddenly and dramatically stop the production of fossil fuels, abandoning assets, impacting economies, as well as forgetting the workers and communities that depend on the energy sector ".
In building the renewable energy sector, we must avoid duplicating the systems that led to inequities and created destructive power dynamics in the fossil fuel and other industries sector. It is about replacing the investor-driven market approach, which characterizes energy production, with an approach that considers energy as a public good, while making the transition to ownership and social management of energy. energy reserves.
Based on energy sovereignty and self-determination, this approach would produce faster decarbonization, including weakening the resistance to change that characterizes special interests. This approach would also facilitate the restructuring of energy systems to serve social and ecological needs.
Zero waste objective
Another system-wide transformation that would lead to a significant reduction in emissions would be to create a zero-waste circular economy in which everything we produce and consume would return to nature, or be recycled and reused.
Take the example of textile production, which generated in 2015 greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to 1,2 billion tonnes of CO2. These massive emissions - greater than the combined total of international flights and shipping - reflect a culture of "disposable fashion" that produces clothing at minimal cost, and is waiting to see the constant renewal of the wardrobe of consumers. If we replaced our clothes half as often, the total volume of greenhouse gases emitted by this sector would fall by 44%.
In textiles, a zero waste circular economy would not only involve wearing the clothes produced longer, but also improving the recycling and processing of materials, to avoid emissions-creating disposal processes, such as 'incineration. The most significant advances would result from the introduction of less wasteful production processes.
Opt for agroecology
Important measures must also be taken in land use (including agriculture and zoning changes). As argued by the international farmer Via Campesina, emissions from the industrial food system represent 44 at 57% of the global total.
A peasant agroecological production system, based on food sovereignty, small-scale farming and ecological agriculture, would allow La Via Campesina to halve carbon emissions from agriculture in a few decades. The functioning of this approach is demonstrated: small farms, peasants, fishermen, local communities, rural workers, women and young people already feed 70% of the world population, exploiting only 25% of the agricultural resources of the planet.
There is also the need to restore the natural ecosystems that have been destroyed. Forests and peatlands, in particular, can store several hundred gigatonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere. Their restoration would protect not only biodiversity, but also local people, including indigenous communities whose land rights are systematically violated. Moreover, the maintenance and expansion of land managed by indigenous peoples and local communities could help maintain carbon stocks equivalent to more than 1.000 gigatonnes of CO2.
According to a report by the Climate, Land, Ambition & Rights Alliance, ecosystem-based land approaches, and agro-ecological transformations in food production and consumption systems - including more local ownership - could avoid annually 13 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions, and each year until 2050 almost 10 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent stored carbon. This would represent a total of 448 gigatonnes of CO2 not issued by 2100 - about ten times the current global volume of emissions.
A new socio-economic system
Limiting to 1,5 ° C the rise in global temperatures above pre-industrial levels is our only hope of containing the effects of a climate crisis born of historical injustices and deep inequalities. The only way to achieve this will be through a transition to a new socio-economic system. This means abandoning the narrow obsession with GDP growth and now favoring an approach to the commons, truly at the service of a better life for the people.
Requiring such a transformation is not "naïve" or "politically unfeasible". It's a radically realistic approach. It is simply the only way to achieve social justice while protecting the environment from devastating climate change.
Barbara Unmüssig is President of the Heinrich Böll Foundation.
This article is published in collaboration with Project Syndicate.
https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/ce ... 220983.php
Let's stop turning around the climatic pot!
There is an urgent need to radicalize the fight for climate. From a warming of 2 ° C, the Earth could switch to a "planet oven" regime. An unimaginable cataclysm, with a rise in the oceans of at least 12 meters and a collapsed biodiversity. If humanity survives it would be at the cost of eliminating the poorest in poor countries, which are the least responsible for climate change!
Warming is much more threatening and faster than we thought. The temperature has increased by 1.1 ° C compared to the 18e century and the consequences are there: droughts, ultra-violent cyclones, floods, melting ice ... No doubt is allowed: the disaster is on. Every effort should be made to maintain warming below 1,5 ° C, as decided at COP21.
This is not what is happening, far from it. Multinationals, finance and the governments in their service do not hear it that way: "To implement everything" would endanger growth and profits. For the moment, none of the European countries has even respected its COP21 commitments.
Two political camps are emerging.
The Belgian press is decidedly more free and courageous of analyzes !!
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