Electric cars: the future price (S Tesla, GM Bolt)

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Electric cars: the future price (S Tesla, GM Bolt)




by Christophe » 23/02/15, 22:37

Bonjour à tous

In my last email I mentioned Tony Seba's very exciting lecture on technologies that are causing a major disruptive change, including the electrification of transportation.

For those who do not know him, he is the author of the successful book entitled "Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation"

http://www.amazon.com/Clean-Disruption- ... disruption

I ordered this book last week but I have not received it yet. In the meantime I'm going to watch his conferences on YouTube, including this one that I highly recommend

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBkND76J91k

As you can see on the slide of this conference above, he is evaluating the price evolution of a Tesla Model S-style electric car, which would have a range of 320 km (200 miles), from 2014 to 2030. To obtain this curve, it reduces the price of 16% per year by mentioning that it is the decrease observed in the last four years for the price of batteries, the most expensive component of the car. In doing so, he arrives at a price of 22 000 $ in 2022, the price of a compact petrol car today. Since the price to fill up with electricity is much cheaper than that of gasoline, as the maintenance costs are much lower as well, his conclusion is that 100% of the new light vehicles sold in 2030 are going to be electric (he leaves room for error).

It is very exciting, you will agree. So I looked at his lecture a second time, to make sure that's the case. Here is my analysis.

First, if you look at the price of an electric car with 320 km range on the higher curve, you will find that in 2030 a Tesla selling 75 000 $ in 2014 would sell 5 000 $, which is impossible. So I looked at the settings he used. He considers that the car has an 50 kwh battery of capacity at 500 $ the kwh in 2014. The initial price of the 2014 battery is 25 000 $, be one third of the price of the car. However, it applies the annual reduction in the cost of batteries (16%) to the entire price of the car which makes no sense. Moreover, the best you can expect from a battery of 50 kwh is to travel 300 km in the best conditions, not 320 km.

So I redid a graph that takes into account an annual decrease of 16% of the cost of batteries but 5% on the rest of the car. Here it is

Image

It shows that the price of 22 000 $ is reached in 2030 and not in 2022. But, an annual decrease of 5% for the car less the battery seems to me still a lot, because the technologies of manufacture are mastered since a good moment. By the way, the Tesla Model S is a luxury car. So I made another chart that starts with a price of 40 000 $, including 15 000 $ for 50 battery kwh 2017, year of release of the battery electric Chevrolet Bolt with a range of 300 km. Note that by applying a 16% decrease per year from 2014 to 2017, the 25 000 $ of the farm becomes 15 000 $ in 2017. In addition, I used a decrease of 3% only on the cost of the car minus the battery. Here's what it gives

Image

Remember that the 30 000 $ announced by GM for its Bolt is the price after the application of the 7 500 $ federal rebate. I consider that this last curve is closer to reality. It shows that the price drops to 21 000 $ in 2027. The big question is, will the decrease in battery costs continue at the rate of 16% per year? But when you look at the construction of the giant Tesla battery factory that will double the global production of Li-ion batteries in 2017 while certainly other factories of the kind will follow, I would be inclined to say that the 16% should be maintained.

My conclusion is that Tony Seba has exaggerated the speed of price reduction, but still it is very likely that 2030 there is more reason to buy a gas car.

The oil age will end not because of the lack of oil, but because of better cars at lower prices, a "fuel" at a much lower price, and maintenance at a much lower cost as well. And let's not forget that 2030 charging stations will be many and fast.

I've always said that by 2030, plug-in hybrid or extended range electric cars were a better option than all-electric cars, for a number of reasons, including limited battery life with few fast charging stations. But there is also the depletion of lithium resources, if we build two billion vehicles with large batteries. However, taking into account self-driving carsharing and carpooling, and increasing public transit, the number of light-duty vehicles on the roads could be significantly reduced. In this perspective, fully electric cars with a battery of 300 km to 500 km of autonomy, as needed, could constitute the vast majority of new cars sold in 2030, and possibly in 2025.

We live in a very exciting pivotal period in the history of humanity. It's up to us to make the right choices, and it's good for us and future generations.


Sincerely

Pierre Langlois, Ph.D., physicist
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by Ahmed » 23/02/15, 23:37

this is a vision that is essentially technical rather than economic.
A new product can hope to see its selling price fall in such proportions that the unit decrease is more than offset by the additional mass sold.
In the case of this particular commodity, it is in competition with an existing product and cheaper, which makes it all the more difficult to start the process.
Second remark, the necessary margin of progression is very high, which means that to achieve an operational reduction of the selling price, it is necessary to rely on gigantic production volumes, unrealistic completions in their extractivist consequences.
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Re: Electric cars: price for the future (Tesla S, GM Bolt)




by moinsdewatt » 01/04/16, 19:34

The show for the official presentation of the Tesla Model 3!

Image

Image

[IN IMAGES, IN PICTURES] Tesla presents its Model 3, "the Model S for everyone"


By Julien Bonnet Factory New the 01 April 2016

Tesla wants to enter a new dimension. Having started in the high end with the Model S sedan and the Model X SUV, the Californian manufacturer aims (much) bigger. Spearhead of this strategy, the Model 3, premiered in California this Thursday 31 March in the evening.


A keynote of about thirty minutes (to review here) which brought together all the ingredients of the genre, crowd of "delirious" fans, dynamic presentation orchestrated by the boss Elon Musk (who seems more and more at ease in this exercise) and slight suspense before the "reveal" of the long-awaited product.

Before the arrival of the first three models of the Model 3 on stage, Elon Musk unveiled the first information on this vehicle:

Starting price at 35 000 dollars (as expected, without the ecological bonus type incentives), which is two times less than the Model S.

Performance: The base Model 3 will be able to go from 0 to 100 km / h in less than 6 seconds. “At Tesla, we don't make slow cars,” Elon Musk joked.

Minimum Estimated Autonomy: 215 miles or about 350 kilometers in a single charge.

The semi-autonomous "Autopilot" system and charging via the brand's superchargers will be offered as standard.

The vehicle can accommodate 5 adults "comfortably seated".

Deliveries will begin at the end of next year. "I'm confident we'll get there," said Elon Musk, after criticism of the delays in marketing previous models and for the Model 3's schedule.


Before concluding, Elon Musk said he had already registered 115 000 pre-orders for the Model 3 in a day.

Unprecedented in automotive history, people lined up in front of Tesla shops around the world to reserve their vehicle, a scene that we usually see in front of the Apple Store during the launch of the new iPhone or in front of cinemas at the exit of the most awaited blockbusters!

http://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/en ... us.N385616
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Re: Electric cars: price for the future (Tesla S, GM Bolt)




by Janic » 02/04/16, 12:32

interesting this comment and calculation of engine nature:

Tesla Model 3: already more than 232 000 customers !!!
http://www.moteurnature.com/actu/uneact ... s_id=28310

2016-04-02 - Full Order Book up to 2020.
Tesla Model 3It does not seem very rational to buy a car without having tried it. And even less without having seen, or even know its characteristics, but it is yet what have just done more than 232 000 people, everywhere in the world. In just 24 hours, Tesla Motors has registered more than 232 000 pre-bookings for its new Model 3. When you think that Renault sold only 5000 Zoé in the first quarter, this commercial success is to be reversed. The future is therefore great for Tesla, even if we wonder how the young manufacturer will manage to manage this success.

Assuming he manufactures 25 000 Model 3 next year, he will have to double his production in 2018, and again in 2019, but that will not be enough to answer all the orders of this single week. Building a new assembly line from scratch (the chassis is different from Model S and X), hiring and training hundreds of workers, but all this in a second step, since according to several sources, the development of the auto is not finalized yet. The car is not ready to go into production. But this detail does not seem to have touched the most 232 000 people who have already spent 1000 $ to make a reservation.

We do not know what to think, except to congratulate the builder of California for creating such enthusiasm for electric mobility. Well done Tesla, and long live the electric car!

FIX: A first version of this article evoked the 200 000 number of cars ordered.

Subject heading (s) and word (s): commerce-distribution; Tesla-Motors
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Re: Electric cars: price for the future (Tesla S, GM Bolt)




by Christophe » 02/04/16, 13:16

35 000 $ in the USA is a good price for such an electric car!

But how much will it be offered in Europe (if it is)?

Rather towards 45 000 € right? And here we enter the high-end for most homes (we are poorer in Europe than USA ...)

Also, California has focused on alternative energies and ecology since 20 years: people are perhaps more aware than in Europe, where we remain more traditionalist.

Especially in France: we prefer that the neighbor tests the novelties (so take the risk) before launching oneself ...
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Re: Electric cars: price for the future (Tesla S, GM Bolt)




by Ahmed » 02/04/16, 16:36

We talk a lot about ecology (in fact, rather environmentalism) in California, as to practice it, I see that it's about $ $ $ ...
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Re: Electric cars: price for the future (Tesla S, GM Bolt)




by Gaston » 18/04/16, 14:25

Christophe wrote:Rather towards 45 000 € right? And here we enter the high-end for most homes (we are poorer in Europe than USA ...)
The US has a tradition of cars (and fuel) cheap to facilitate travel in their huge country.
When an identical model is marketed on both sides of the Atlantic, the price is almost always 20 30% more expensive in France.

So, I agree with your probable estimate of 45 000 € (with perhaps a bonus to deduce if it still exists at the time of delivery).
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Re: Electric cars: price for the future (Tesla S, GM Bolt)




by Christophe » 18/04/16, 15:08

Ahmed wrote:We talk a lot about ecology (in fact, rather environmentalism) in California, as to practice it, I see that it's about $ $ $ ...


A stroke of $$$ to invest or that's for sure.

I think that California has a good share of renewable energy on electricity (especially compared to the rest of the US ...), they also do beautiful things at the sorting and recovery of household waste (always in comparison with the rest USA ...), there are some hydrogen pumps too, Tesla is in California and also Google that is involved in the ENR ...

This is what comes to mind cold ...

On the other hand California has certainly some of the most luxurious villas in the world, ultra energy, and many billionaires who regularly move in jet or private helicopter ...

I do not know if there is a ratio CO2 / inhabitant for California but it would be interesting to find this kind of info (compared to other states ... American or not)
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Re: Electric cars: price for the future (Tesla S, GM Bolt)




by Gaston » 19/04/16, 10:31

Christophe wrote:I do not know if there is a ratio CO2 / inhabitant for California but it would be interesting to find this kind of info (compared to other states ... American or not)
I suppose that ceci matches.

California is pretty well ranked in the US states: 3nd with 9,18 tons per capita and per year in 2011 (average at 17,28 for the USA).

Which places it at about the level of Germany (9,40 in 2013).
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Re: Electric cars: price for the future (Tesla S, GM Bolt)




by Christophe » 19/04/16, 10:56

And that's what I thought ... a US state at the level of Europe is still good! Even if Germany is far from being the best student in Europe ...
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